CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.     

SIMULATING TILE DRAINAGE AND NITRATE LEACHING UNDER A POTATO CROP1

ABSTRACT: A 2.2-hectare potato (Solanum tuberosum L. cv Chieftain) field at Saint Leonard d'Aston, Quebec (lat. 72° 24′ 30″ long. 46° 5′ 30″) was instrumented to measure tile drain flow over two growing seasons, 1989 and 1990. The soil was a Sainte Jude sandy loam. Soil properties and nitrate concentrations in the drain flow were measured. The CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff and rosion from agricultural Management systems) computer simulation model was validated for the study site. CREAMS underpredicted event percolation depths. However, total monthly percolation depths were close to observed values. CREAMS overpredicted event nitrate concentrations leached to tile drainage. There was a poor match between predicted and observed event nitrate concentrations in drain flow (coefficient of predictability, CP_A= 104.95). Based on a sensitivity analysis, input parameters, representative of local conditions, were determined for the CREAMS hydrology and nutrient submodels.     

汉江上游十大洪水气象特征分析

本文分析了安康大洪水的气候分布和气象成因,讨论了水文气象接口问题,指出进行气象洪水预报是可能的。     

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-AGGREGATED HYDROLOGIC DATA1

Stochastic models fitted to hydrologic data of different time scales are interrelated because the higher time scale data (aggregated data) are derived from those of lower time scale. Relationships between the statistical properties and parameters of models of aggregated data and of original data are examined in this paper. It is also shown that the aggregated data can be more accurately predicted by using a valid model of the original data than by using a valid model of the aggregated data. This property is particularly important in forecasting annual values because only a few annual values are usually available and the resulting forecasts are relatively inaccurate if models based only on annual data are used. The relationships and forecasting equations are developed for general aggregation time and can be used for hourly and daily, daily and monthly or monthly and yearly data. The method is illustrated by using monthly and yearly streamflow data. The results indicate that various statistical characteristics and parameters of the model of annual data can be accurately estimated by using the monthly data and forecasts of annual data by using monthly models have smaller one step ahead mean square error than those obtained by using annual data models.     

WATER TABLE INDUCED SHRUB-HERBACEOUS ECOTONE: HYDROLOGIC MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Environmental factors were investigated across a shrub-herbaceous ecotone (sharp zone of change) on a sloping site underlain by shallow groundwater on the arid floor of Owens Valley, California. Dominant plant species were salt rabbitbrush (Chrysothamnus nauseosus ssp. consimilis [E. Greene] Hall and Clements) and saltgrass (Distichlis spicata var. stricta EL.] E. Greene); typical of many similar habitats across the Great Basin. Historic air photographs were analyzed, and soil properties, water table levels and shrub and herbaceous cover were measured at discrete sample points. To investigate soil and vegetation spatial properties, sample points were apportioned on both sides of the ecotone. Land management practices and fire were ruled out as causal factors for the ecotone which remained stable through a 45-year period of air photo record. Soil textural, chemical and hydraulic properties were similar across the ecotone and were uniform throughout the site. Only depth to the water table changed significantly in a gradient perpendicular to the ecotone. The shrub-herbaceous ecotone was located where the water table depth fluctuated periodically between 0.8 and 1.2 m; deeper water tables than this range favors shrub cover while shallower depths favors meadow vegetation. When extrapolated to hydrologic management such as groundwater pumping, such a shallow depth and a narrow range of amplitude could restrict options for water development if maintenance of meadow vegetation is a goal.     

A NOTE ON AREAL RAINFALL DEFINITION

A discussion is presented of the likely sources of error in defining areal rainfall on a storm basis. These include the instrumental error, sampling fluctuations over the area, and network density. The analysis of dense raingage data provides some perspective of the magnitude of the errors that might be encountered from the natural variability of rainfall. Except for one watershed in Arizona, the coefficient of variation, based on a sample of storm totals from the individual gages in various size areas, remains relatively constant with increasing area for a particular storm. The error due to rainfall variability over the area is probably the most important and must be considered in experiments which attempt to resolve small-area hydrologic problems.     

荒漠草原土壤线虫对氮沉降及降雨变化的响应

为了解氮沉降和降雨变化对短花针茅荒漠草原土壤线虫的影响,试验设计采用主区为增雨30%（W）和减雨30%（R）、自然降雨（CK）3种水分处理,副区为0（N0）、30（N30）、50（N50）和100（N100） kg/（hm²·a）4个氮素梯度共12个处理.结果表明：研究区共鉴定土壤线虫隶属41属,群落优势属为丽突属（Acrobeles）和拟丽突属（Acrobeloides）,增雨较氮添加显著增加了线虫数量,且在10月份尤为明显,减雨下N50梯度更利于线虫数量增加;从功能类群来看,土壤0~10cm食细菌线虫数量最多（占总数41.00%~45.56%）,并随季节动态呈上升趋势,捕杂食线虫数量最低,食细菌和食真菌线虫与氮梯度呈负相关关系;从生态指数来看,仅增雨抑制了土壤线虫多样性,单一氮添加没有改变线虫群落多样性和稳定性,但较低的氮添加会显著降低了线虫丰富度.不同季节动态处理下,土壤矿化途径受食微线虫的影响,有机质以真菌降解通道为主,减雨施氮下提高了土壤抗干扰能力;pH值、有机质、铵态氮含量是影响土壤线虫群落重要的环境因子,土壤氮含量增多及pH值降低增加了偏K策略者类群数量,降低R对策者类群数量,土壤线虫群落结构的变化,表明短花针茅荒漠草原生态系统地下食物网稳定性渐趋增强.     

Potential Economic Impacts of Environmental Flows Following a Possible Listing of Endangered Texas Freshwater Mussels

Texas water resources, already taxed by drought and population growth, could be further stressed by possible listings of endangered aquatic species. This study estimated potential economic impacts of environmental flows (EFs) for five freshwater unionid mussels in three Central Texas basins (Brazos, Colorado, and Guadalupe‐San Antonio Rivers) that encompass 36% of Texas (~246,000 km²). A water availability model projected reductions in water supply to power, commercial and industrial, municipal, and agriculture sectors in response to possible EFs for mussels. Single‐year economic impacts were calculated using publicly available data with and without water transfers. Benefits of EFs should also be assessed, should critical habitat be proposed. Potential economic losses were highest during droughts, but were nominal (<$1 M) in wetter years — even with high EFs. Reduced supplies to San Antonio area power plants caused worst‐case impacts of a single‐year shutdown up to $107 million (M) during drought with high EFs. For other sectors in the study area, water transfers reduced worst‐case losses from $80 to $11 M per year. Implementing innovative water management strategies such as water markets, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, aquifer storage and recovery could mitigate economic impacts if mussels — or other widely distributed aquatic species — were listed. However, approaches for defining EFs and strategies for mitigating economic impacts of EFs are needed.     

ATRAZINE AND METOLACHLOR OCCURRENCE IN SHALLOW GROUND WATER OF THE UNITED STATES, 1993 TO 1995: RELATIONS TO EXPLANATORY FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Since 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to determine the quality of the Nation's water resources. In an effort to obtain a better understanding of why pesticides are found in shallow ground water on a national scale, a set of factors likely to affect the fate and transport of two herbicides in the subsurface were examined. Atrazine and metolachlor were selected for this discussion because they were among the most frequently detected pesticides in ground water during the first phase of the NAWQA Program (1993 to 1995), and each was the most frequently detected compound in its chemical class (triazines and acetanilides, respectively). The factors that most strongly correlated with the frequencies of atrazine detection in shallow ground‐water networks were those that provided either: (1) an indication of the potential susceptibility of ground water to atrazine contamination, or (2) an indication of relative ground‐water age. The factors most closely related to the frequencies of metolachlor detection in ground water, however, were those that estimated or indicated the intensity of the agricultural use of metolachlor. This difference is probably the result of detailed use estimates for these compounds being available only for agricultural settings. While atrazine use is relatively extensive in nonagricultural settings, in addition to its widespread agricultural use, metolachlor is used almost exclusively for agricultural purposes. As a result, estimates of agricultural applications provide a less reliable indication of total chemical use for atrazine than for metolachlor. A multivariate analysis demonstrated that the factors of interest explained about 50 percent of the variance in atrazine and metolachlor detection frequencies among the NAWQA land‐use studies examined. The inclusion of other factors related to pesticide fate and transport in ground water, or improvements in the quality and accuracy of the data employed for the factors examined, may help explain more of the remaining variance in the frequencies of atrazine and metolachlor detection.     

FORECASTING QUARTER-MONTHLY RIVERFLOW1

Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are reviewed and used to model and forecast quarter-monthly (i.e., near-weekly) natural inflows to the Lac St-Jean reservoir in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The covariate series are rainfall and snowmelt, the latter being a novel derivation from daily rainfall, snowfall and temperature series. It is clearly demonstrated using the residual variance and the Akaike information criterion that modeling is improved as one starts with a deseasonalized ARMA model of the inflow series and successively adds transfer functions for the rainfall and snowmelt series. It is further demonstrated that the transfer function-noise model is better than a periodic autoregressive model of the inflow series. A split-sample experiment is used to compare one-step-ahead forecasts from this transfer function-noise model with forecasts from other stochastic models as well as with forecasts from a so-called conceptual hydrological model (i.e., a model which attempts to mathematically simulate the physical processes involved in the hydrological cycle). It is concluded that the transfer function-noise model is the preferred model for forecasting the quarter-monthly Lac St-Jean inflow series.