CONTEMPORANEOUS AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (CARMA) MODELING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The Contemporaneous Autoregressive-Moving Average (CARMA) model is a simple and efficient model that can be used to fit many multivariate hydrological time series. For certain types of multistation river flow systems, the CARMA model is naturally obtained when the physical restrictions of the system or the characteristics of the data are taken in consideration during the formulation of the model. It is shown how the CARMA model can optimally be used to handle multiple time series where the number of observations in each series may be different. Adequate model building techniques, as well as computational and statistical efficient algorithms to estimate the parameters of the model, are given. The methodologies and applications of the CARMA model are illustrated with three examples. It is also shown how the full multivariate ARMA model may lead to losses in efficient of the estimators when the CARMA model is adequate.     

MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES1

The National Weather Service is nearing the conclusion of a five year period of transition from index type catchment modelling to the use of conceptual hydrologic models. The decision to make this technological change was based on an extensive research project in which various catchment models were tested in a wide variety of basins and their strong and weak points ascertained. This project is described. Some of the problems involved in the changeover, which are discussed, are practical parameter optimization methods, computer requirements for the more complex technology, data requirements, fitting of the catchment model to major river systems, training of personnel and staffing problems.     

HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF MASSACHUSETTS WATERSHEDS1

Hydrologic response, defined as the annual direct runoff divided by the annual precipitation, was computed for twenty-one watersheds in or near western Massachusetts, using a total of 232 years of hydrologic records. Variability of the results over the period of analysis was greater than is desirable to inspire confidence in the usefulness of the hydrologic response function; however, the results do suggest that the hydrologic response concept, with appropriate refinements, could be applied successfully to the problem of delineating hydrologic provinces and determination of drainage and storage in unregulated watersheds.     

FLEXIBLE PRICING IN WATER SUPPLY PLANNING–FOR FLEXIBLE ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT. Preliminary results from a digital simulation model designed to test time-varying water pricing policies are presented. Stochastic inflows feeding a water supply reservoir are assumed for a hypothetical community with defined demand functions. Prices are allowed to vary as a function of reservoir level, generally rising as reservoir levels fall. Increasing, decreasing and constant rates are tested. It is concluded that varying the price to reflect the increased value of scarce supplies can greatly reduce the risk of water supply shortages. It is also concluded that varying incremental (conservational) pricing policies not only reduces the risk of shortages, but also lowers the average price to the community while rewarding the low consumption user with lower average rates.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY AND EXTREME RAINFALL FREQUENCY1

Extreme rainfall frequency analysis provides one means to predict, within certain limits of probability, the average time interval between the recurrences of storms of a specified duration and magnitude. This in turn furnishes the forest hydrologist a valuable tool for engineering design and runoff and erosion forecast. A modification in the application of the annual maximum and annual exceedance series analysis described by V. T. Chow can, for special purposes, lead to an even more useful estimate of extreme events on a seasonal basis. This can be particularly important on small forested headwater watersheds where the runoff response to extreme rainfall may vary considerably with seasonal changes in canopy cover and soil moisture characteristics. Although the application of data covering a relatively short period of record has produced some inconsistencies among the frequency diagrams, under certain circumstances for short-term recurrence interval forecast and for non-critical application the analysis of extreme rainfall frequency from less than 20 years data seems justified.     

SIMULATION OF RUNOFF FROM URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT. .A mathematical model for urban watersheds is being developed in stages at the Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University at Logan. In verifying the watershed as a unit, watershed coefficients are determined on the computer, and related to the urbanization characteristics. The second stage of verification consists of dividing the watershed into subzones, and determining the urban parameters within each subzone. Each subzone is then individually modeled, and outflow hydrographs are routed through succeeding downstream subzones to the gaging point. The model thus makes it possible to: (a) develop runoff models for subzone hydrographs within the urban watershed, and (b) account for spatial variations of storm and watershed characteristics. An attempt was also made to analytically model the outflow hydrograph based on storm and watershed characteristics.     

AN EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BASED ON RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of flood frequency estimates simulated from a rainfall/runoff model is based on (1) computation of the equivalent years of record for regional estimating equations based on 50 small stream sites in Oklahoma and (2) computation of the bias for synthetic flood estimates as compared to observed estimates at 97 small stream sites with at least 20 years of record in eight eastern states. Because of the high intercorrelation of synthetic flood estimates between watersheds, little or no regional (spatial) information may be added to the network as a result of the modeling activity. The equivalent years of record for the regional estimating equations based totally on synthetic flood discharges is shown to be considerably less than the length of rainfall record used to simulate the runoff. Furthermore, the flood estimates from the rainfall/runoff model consistently underestimate the flood discharges based on observed record, particularly for the larger floods. Depending on the way bias is computed, the synthetic estimate of the 100-year flood discharge varies from 11 to 29 percent less than the value based on observed record. In addition, the correlation between observed and synthetic flood frequency estimates at the same site is also investigated. The degree of correlation between these estimates appears to vary with recurrence interval. Unless the correlation between these two estimates is known, it is not possible to compute a weighted estimate with minimum variance.     

A PLANNING METHOD FOR EVALUATING DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF DETENTION BASINS1

While storm water detention basins are widely used for controlling increases in peak discharges that result from urbanization, recent research has indicated that under certain circumstances detention storage can actually cause increases in peak discharge rates. Because of the potential for detrimental downstream effects, storm water management policies often require downstream effects to be evaluated. Such evaluation requires the design engineer to collect additional topographic and land use data and make costly hydrologic analyses. Thus, a method, which is easy to apply and which would indicate whether or not a detailed hydrologic analysis of downstream impacts is necessary, should decrease the average cost of storm water management designs. A planning method that does not require either a large data base or a computer is presented. The time co-ordinates of runoff hydrographs are estimated using the time-of-concentration and the SCS runoff curve number; the discharge coordinates are estimated using a simple peak discharge equation. While the planning method does not require a detailed design of the detention basin, it does provide a reasonably accurate procedure for evaluating whether or not the installation of a detention basin will cause adverse downstream flooding.     

GENERALIZED SKEW COEFFICIENTS FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: In order to promote a uniform and consistent approach for floodflow frequency studies, the U.S. Water Resources Council has recommended the use of the log-Pearson type III distribution with a generalized skew coefficient. This paper investigates various methods of determining generalized skew coefficients. A new method is introduced that determines generalized skew coefficients using a weighting procedure based upon the variance of regional (map) skew coefficients and the variance of sample skew coefficients. The variance of skew derived from sample data is determined using either of two non-parametric methods called the jackknife or bootstrap. Applications of the new weighting procedure are presented along with an experimental study to test various weighting procedures to derive generalized skew coefficients.