基于选择试验法的受威胁物种保护偏好及价值评估

科学评价生物多样性价值可为生物多样性和生态系统经济学（the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity,TEEB）支持下的生物资源管理提供有效的技术方法和政策依据,对受威胁物种的保护尤为重要.从TEEB的理念和研究目标出发,以我国特有保护植物——翅果油树（Elaeagnus mollis）为例,采用选择试验法定量评估受访者对受威胁物种保护和开发的偏好以及支付意愿;针对种植面积、产品开发、树苗品种、保护投入和农户收益这5项物种属性,在多模型比较的基础上最终选择随机参数模型（RPL）和潜在分层模型（LCM）进行价值评估.结果表明:基于RPL模型得出受访者的偏好选择具有异质性,正选择偏好的属性变量按重要性表现为“保护增加投入” > “高低端产品同时开发” > “农户收益” > “树苗品种” > “种植面积”,其中对“保护增加投入”的支付意愿〔331.0元/（户·a）〕最高,其次为“高低端产品同时开发”〔242.71元/（户·a）〕;对“保护不投入”为负选择偏好,且支付意愿〔-154.71元/（户·a）〕最低.基于LCM模型可将受访者分为保护偏好型和发展偏好型2个潜在类别,前者所占样本比例远高于后者,他们更愿意在物种保护方面支付较多的费用,而后者更愿意在产品开发上支付较多的费用.补偿剩余分析得到,翅果油树保护和开发的最大价值为285.62元/（户·a）.研究显示,选择试验法在受威胁物种保护及价值评估中具有良好的适用性,评估结果可为物种保护政策的制定提供科学依据.      

基于潜在分类模型的湿地生态系统服务公众生态偏好异质性研究

在生态系统服务价值评估研究中,把握公众的生态偏好是当前研究的重要内容。论文以三江平原湿地为研究对象,应用选择实验法获取公众的生态偏好和支付意愿,构建潜在分类模型,探究公众对湿地各项生态系统服务的偏好异质性。研究结果显示：公众对各项湿地生态系统服务存在显著的偏好异质性,资源偏好型的受访者所占比例最大（68.78%）,景观偏好型的受访者对自然景观的支付意愿显著较高,而价格敏感型受访者的支付意愿明显低于其他两类。分析各潜在类别可知,公众的社会经济特征及环境意识对其偏好具有显著影响。教育水平越高的受访者越偏好于资源保护,高收入和到景区旅游次数多的受访者更偏好于景观保护,而价格敏感型受访者的环境意识相对较低。研究不仅为湿地生态系统服务偏好异质性的研究提供新途径,也为相关环境政策的制定提供参考。     

Integrating nature-based tourism and forestry in private lands under heterogeneous visitor preferences for forest attributes

Developing nature-based tourism in private lands calls for new mechanisms to consolidate the interests of the tourism industry, visitors, and landowners. This choice experiment study elaborates on the heterogeneity of visitors’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for enhanced forest amenities and ecosystem services. The survey, targeting domestic and foreign tourists visiting the Ruka-Kuusamo area in Finland, considered four attributes: landscape quality, outdoor routes, forest biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. For observed heterogeneity, the visitors were grouped by their attitudes towards forest management. Unobserved heterogeneity in visitors’ choice behaviour and WTP was examined with the latent class model. While most visitors had environmentally friendly attitudes and were willing to pay, especially for enhanced landscape quality and biodiversity, considerable heterogeneity was revealed in terms of three segments with distinctive attitudes, choice behaviour and WTP. The variation in WTP has important implications for the design of a scheme of payments for environmental management.     

哈龙替代技术的应用选择方法

简单介绍了几种典型哈龙替代技术，提出了替代技术的选择标准，分析比较了各替代技术的性能特点，并在此基础上针对实际应用场所的具体情况和要求，采用运筹学方法评估出较为切合实际的哈龙替代灭火系统。     

农牧交错区农户作物选择机制研究 ——以内蒙古太仆寺旗为例

市场经济条件下,农户经营不再受食物需求的限制,在种植结构选择方面自由度更大。论文通过农户调查获得数据,运用统计方法从三个方面分析农户作物选择机制:作物本身的投入产出效益、农地地块的差别、农户资源禀赋与家庭特征。研究发现,在劳动力普遍非农务工的背景下,劳动力约束成为农户作物选择的重要影响因素,劳动生产率较高的作物具有明显的比较优势,并且农户倾向于在质量较好的土地上种植这些作物。在农牧交错区,农户种植决策受到养殖业的强烈影响,兼有饲料用途的莜麦得到普遍种植。     

Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents’ interest in having the project implemented. However, policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, which, respectively, increases and decreases their willingness-to-pay for the project. We conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents’ perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, and we find no significant relationship.     

基于成本收益的灾后重建区耕地保护区位选择

灾后重建区的耕地保护区位选择是保障农村发展、保护生态环境的重要课题。文章运用成本收益论,将直接投入成本、非农化机会成本以及政策成本耦合得出耕地保护投入成本,与潜在收益综合分析后形成了重建区耕地保护区位选择的研究框架,构建了区位选择指标体系。在此框架下,对2008年"5·12"地震中位于重灾区的四川省彭州市进行了实证分析,借助GIS空间分析技术,以行政村为基本评价单元,研究高适宜性的耕地保护空间位置。结果表明,彭州市耕地保护的优选区位主要位于通济镇、新兴镇、磁峰镇、桂花镇、军乐镇、隆丰镇、升平镇、三界镇、敖平镇以及丽春镇、葛仙山镇大部分地区。研究为彭州市补充灾毁耕地、耕地空间重置等灾后重建工作的开展提供科学依据。     

Rural residents and choice of building earthquake-resistant house: results of a choice experiment study

Rural settlements, especially in developing countries, are disproportionally vulnerable to natural hazards due to both biophysical and social vulnerability. Building hazard-resistant houses requires a thorough understanding of hazards and institutional and financial resources. However, it is equally important for planners and policymakers to know how rural residents make the tradeoff between various housing attributes when provided with the resources such as low-interest housing construction loans. In this study, we use a choice experiment (CE) to examine rural households' preference for earthquake resistance when building houses. A total of 300 households from randomly selected villages in central districts of Guilan Province in Iran were recruited for a CE study in which they had to choose between a number of houses that differed in terms of the required construction loan, resistance to earthquakes, size, and exterior and interior designs. Our results show that the average resident preferred larger houses with better exterior and interior designs to more earthquake-resistant houses, and is willing to spend more on these attributes than earthquake safety. These results indicate that rural households are willing to receive loans to improve their houses but that this does not translate into more earthquake-resistant houses.     

京福高铁对旅游目的地区域空间结构的影响——以黄山市为例

随着高速铁路网络化发展,旅游发展新要素的介入,目的地旅游发展产生新变化。以黄山市为案例地,京福高铁开通前后为时间分割点,通过实地调研和网络检索获取旅游者空间流动轨迹及相关出行属性数据,利用Excel、SPSS、SNA、GIS和CorelDraw等方法,探析京福高铁对黄山市旅游目的地区域空间结构的影响。结果显示：1）高铁开通后,国内客源市场半径向外延伸,且高铁沿线福建、山东、北京等省市客流量出现“逆衰减”现象。2）高铁开通后,旅游目的地区域节点数量改变,空间范围扩展。整体网络流量在高铁开通前后都呈现高频节点对以区域间组合（黄山+长三角、黄山+江西省域）为主、区域内组合为辅（黄山+合肥、池州、宣城）的空间分布特征。整体网络功能发育欠完善,网络结构分层明显。高铁开通后,整体网络核心区发生改变,核心节点空间分布由集中趋向分散,核心区与边缘区联系松散,旅游辐射效应较弱。目的地区域核心节点和重要节点的程度中心性值变化较大,核心中介节点较少,核心节点结构洞水平较高,功能突出。3）高铁开通前后,黄山市旅游目的地区域空间结构呈现“板块式”的发展格局,包括黄山+长三角地区,皖南旅游区（黄山+池州、宣城）、黄山+江西省域三个板块,目的地区域整体空间结构由“单核-外围”向“双核-外围”变化,由凝聚趋向扩展,空间发展模式发生改变。探析高铁对黄山市旅游发展的影响,可为黄山市及周边地区的旅游地发展提供借鉴价值。     

农业减量化补偿方式的农户偏好及异质性——基于重庆357户农户的选择实验分析

合理的农业生态补偿方式应符合农户利益预期和意愿。基于重庆10区县357户农户的调查数据,采用选择实验法和随机参数Logit模型分析了农户参与农业减量化的补偿方式偏好及异质性。结果表明：①各种补偿方式均能显著提高农户农业减量化的参与效用;②农户平均偏好程度最高的是农资补偿和现金补偿,其次是技术补偿,最低的是政策补偿;③农户对不同补偿方式存在显著的偏好异质性,并且部分偏好异质性来源于决策者特征、家庭经营/生计特征和区域因素。建议继续通过生态补偿有效推进化肥农药减量施用,但补偿方式应该结合不同农户的偏好采取差异化设计。