社会选择理论在流域跨界水资源配置冲突决策问题中的应用

本文将社会选择理论引入到流域跨界水资源配置冲突的解决研究中,从群决策的角度寻找到流域内各区域一致同意的、满足水量分配公平的流域水资源配置方案。流域水资源配置冲突问题从表面上看是资源问题,实质上却是一个典型的决策问题。作为一种具有混合特性和稀缺性的自然资源,流域稀缺水资源的分配实质上是多主体参与的涉水利益分配,而分配的核心问题是如何通过合理的群决策机制协调水资源配置冲突中不同行政区域之间的利益关系进而实现公平。本文提出基于社会选择理论的流域跨界水资源配置冲突解决框架,首先从公平性角度将流域水资源配置冲突看成一个短缺资源的配置问题,利用P、AP、CEA和CEL四种破产准则获取可行的水量分配方案集合;其次运用社会选择理论中的PV、BC、HQ、PCM和FB五种偏好聚合方法进行流域内各行政区域个体偏好聚合的群决策分析;通过破产准则与偏好聚合的结合能够实现流域水资源配置冲突群决策结果的公平,所得流域水量分配方案易于被冲突主体所接受。最后,以华北缺水地区的漳河流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题为例进行研究,并比较不同破产准则及偏好聚合方法在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突中的应用。研究结果表明,社会选择理论与破产准则的结合在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题中具有较高的实用价值。     

Female sand gobies gain direct benefits by choosing males with eggs in their nests

In some fish species with paternal care, females prefer to spawn with males whose nests already contain eggs. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this behaviour, such as reduced risk of predation or cannibalism (the dilution effect), increased parental investment, and mate copying. This experimental study focuses on female mate choice in the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus. Females were found to choose males with eggs in their nests. In addition, hatching success increased with clutch size, mainly because males with larger clutches showed less filial cannibalism. Increased egg survival in large clutches may thus be explained by a combination of the dilution effect and higher parental investment. In another experiment, females did not seem to copy the observed mate choice of other females. In conclusion, female preference for males with eggs in their nests is adaptive, and can be explained by direct benefits, as more surviving offspring are produced. Received: 23 December 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 May 1996     

Variation in uptake of serum screening: the role of service delivery

The present study aimed to determine the extent to which variation in the uptake of serum screening for Down syndrome reflects variation in the way the test is offered. A higher uptake of serum screening was seen at hospitals that offered the blood test as part of a routine visit than at those where screening required a separate visit. The type of screening test offered and whether a reminder was sent were not associated with uptake. Given the consensus that undergoing screening should be the result of an informed choice, further research is needed to determine which methods of offering serum screening facilitate and which impede informed choice. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

选择吸收式溴化锂直燃机应注意的问题

针对直燃机厂家多,质量不一,指标不同,生产能力和售后的不同,对应注意的问题做一个对比.以便于用户按使用功能的不同来选择产品.     

Land use Systems and Erosion in the Uplands of the Central Coast, Vietnam

Soil erosion is a significant problem in the uplands of the Central Coast, Vietnam. It affects the livelihood of farmers and could hinder the long-term economic development efforts in the uplands. Yet, trapped in poverty, upland farmers, especially the ethnic minority, are still mining the soil using erosive land use systems to meet their urgent needs. This study demonstrates that the level of soil erosion varies across the typical land use systems. The fruit tree-based agroforestry (AF) system is least erosive and most financially profitable. The choice of land use system is influenced by farmers' attributes, land plot characteristics, and policy-related variables. The set of policy variables is important in explaining land use choice by upland farmers. Promoting the switch to AF system and the adoption of soil conservation is of great importance to reducing soil erosion and sustaining development in the uplands. However, it is a very challenging task.     

Female mediation of sperm competition in the millipede Alloporus uncinatus (Diplopoda: Spirostreptidae)

The tropical spirostreptid millipede Alloporus uncinatus has a polygynandrous mating pattern that is apparently shaped by sperm competition (Telford and Dangerfield 1990, 1993a). In the present study radioisotopic labelling of ejaculates was used to quantify the temporal effects of double mating sequences on sperm precedence patterns. Ejaculates of successive males mix completely within the sperm storage organs and are concentrated close to the site of fertilisation, the spermathecal-oviduct junction. When matings follow each other immediately (experiment 1), equal volumes of the ejaculates of each male are stored within the spermathecae, and both males have equal probability of paternity. Where matings are separated by a 24-h delay (experiment 2), the volumetric contribution of the first male is reduced by 54.8 % and last male precedence operates. Although the distal ends of the gonopods play a primary role in the redistribution of ejaculates (Barnett and Telford 1994), by using a single mating sequence we show that they are not responsible for the reduction in ejaculate volume. The most likely explanation is absorption and/or ejection of the first male's ejaculate by the female. Genital functional morphology is used to reconstruct the mechanism of ejaculate distribution.     

Parasite distribution and virulence: implications for parasite-mediated sexual selection

The Hamilton-Zuk hypothesis states that females choosing males with more developed secondary sexual traits, i.e. brighter males, achieve greater fitness if variability in brightness reflects heritable variation in resistance to parasites. However, several factors will affect the likelihood that parasites play a role in sexual selection in given species. Here, using simple models, we show that because of parasite aggregation on a few hosts, only few breeding males would suffer from reductions in brightness due to parasites. Only in cases where parasites are abundant and show low levels of aggregation among their hosts would there be sufficient variability in brightness among breeding males for female choice of bright, resistant males to evolve. In addition, sufficient parasite-induced variability in brightness among breeding males will only occur in host-parasite systems where pathology is linearly related to the number of parasites per host. The presence of males that are uninfected and bright but genetically susceptible to parasites will also influence the fitness advantages obtained by females choosing bright males. If genetic immunity against parasites is rare in the host population, females can probably only benefit from choosing bright males if parasites are common and little aggregated among males. These results greatly limit the generality of the Hamilton-Zuk hypothesis, and suggest that only a small fraction of host-parasite associations could promote the evolution of host mate choice for resistance based on brightness. Correspondence to: R. Poulin     

新时代下中国自然资源安全的战略思考

中国特色社会主义进入新时代,经济处于转型升级的攻关期,自然资源安全保障被赋予了新的使命和要求。刚成立的自然资源部为新时代中国自然资源安全保障和综合管理的发展带来了新机遇。新时代是30 a以上的大尺度,其中长期战略安排需基于对自然资源历史变化的系统总结和对未来中长期的资源供需形势的战略研判。综合来看,未来中长期中国水资源需求仍将上升,耕地的粮食供应压力增大,直接影响民生福祉;矿产资源需求整体仍处于高位,不同矿种需求由“普涨”转向“结构性分异”;森林资源木材供给压力加重,关联着现代化经济体系的建设目标。以生态文明战略为统领,践行“绿水青山就是金山银山（两山）”的理念,坚持节约资源和保护环境,是保障中国自然资源安全的关键。为缓解中国整体资源安全压力,提高自然资源综合保障能力,以更有力地支撑中国“两个百年”战略目标的实现,建议：抓紧开展面向新时代的中国自然资源战略研究及顶层规划设计;实行严格的自然资源管理和环境保护制度;优化资源供给结构,加快资源开发利用的科技创新;立足国内,提高资源利用效率,促进循环利用,加强资源领域的国际合作。     

目的地旅游系统隐性结构的分析

目的地系统是旅游系统中的一个重要子系统,组成这一系统的结构和要素有显性和隐性之分.从目的地旅游系统隐性结构要素的存在形式、功能表现等进行分析,旨在引起人们对隐性要素的关注,并进行有效的保护和合理的利用,实现旅游目的地的可持续发展.     

THE USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS IN PREDICTING SEDIMENT YIELD1

ABSTRACT. Four commonly used models for predicting sediment yield are analyzed and compared using previously published data. Three of these models involve logarithmic transformations. Some of the problems involved in transforming data are discussed in the context of logarithmic transformations. These problems are illustrated using the results of standard regression analyses and economic loss function analyses. For the data analyzed, the linear model is preferable to each of the logarithmic models on the basis of each analysis, and the usual multiple objective nature of the model choice problem is thus modified. The extent to which these results can be generalized is discussed in the context of model choice.