STATISTICAL METHODS AND SAMPLING DESIGN FOR ESTIMATING STEP TRENDS IN SURFACE-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The Hodges-Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies are examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods. The inefficiency of sampling at frequencies much in excess of 12 samples per year is demonstrated. Rotational sampling designs are discussed, and efficient designs, at least for this river and constituent, are shown to involve more than one year of active sampling at frequencies of about 12 per year.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality management within the class I area of great smoky mountains national park

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 designated national parks and wilderness areas larger than 1894 ha to be class I areas for air quality management, setting more restrictive criteria than the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Class I areas are afforded the greatest degree of air quality protection under the Clear Air Act of 1970. In recent years, several studies have documented air pollution effects in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), the second-largest class I area in the eastern United States. Air pollution problems of greatest concern in the GSMNP are effects of acid deposition, visibility impairment, and tropospheric ozone. Several recent events have increased concerns about air quality management in the class I area of the GSMNP. A forum, sponsored by the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere Cooperative (SAMAB), was held in March 1992, which involved representative. parties-at-interest and began to address strategies for better management of air resources in the Southern Appalachians. This paper summarizes those discussions and recommendations and reports actions occurring as a result of the forum. Another objective of this paper is to present a conceptual framework for more effective management of the class I area of the GSMNP.     

江苏沿海滩涂开发现状分析

本文作者根据多年的江苏滩涂开发利用调查资料，着重分析了江苏滩涂开发成就，开发潜力和制约因素三方面的现状，提出了加快滩涂开发的重要措施。     

山东省生物多样性及其保护与开发利用

山东省自然条件优越，生态环境多样，因而具有极其丰富的生物多样性，本文初步研究了山东省生物多样性现状，保护与经济协调发展对策。     

西藏高山松松脂资源及其开发利用前景

本文在西藏高山松进行的采脂试验和对松脂及其加工产品松香，松节油的成分，含量和质量分析的基础上，论述了西藏高山松松脂资源潜在的质量优势及其潜在的经济效益，据此结合西藏的实际，对开发利用高山松松脂资源的前景作了分析并提出了几点建议。     

玉.玉文化.旅游

开发旅游新产品，是促进我国旅游业不断迈上新台阶需要研究解决的问题之一。本文通过作者实施踏勘和检索有关文献，阐述了玉的种类及其主要产地的状况，并揭示它新蕴涵的文化内容。     

走出环境污染的怪圈——就环境论环境不能解决环境问题

历史的经验告诉我们，就环境论环境不能解决环境问题。本文从分析当今时代的特点出发，剖析了我国环境污染形势，最后论述如何走出环境污染的怪圈．经济增长不等于经济发展，但可持续发展却是永恒的主题．解决环境问题必须改变传统发展战略，发展是硬道理，但我们讲的发展是全社会的持续、协调、全面发展。解振华局长说：“工业污染是环境污染的主要来源”。经济增长的源泉在企业，经济增长的动力是企业利益，经济增长的压力是市场的竞争，经济增长的持续是协调发展。只顾产值不讲效益的观念必须改变，环境问题的解决必须和国家的经济发展、科学技术、社会稳定统一考虑，必须纳入国家整体战略，环境问题才能进步解决。     

四川中药资源的开发利用与发展方向

本文探讨了四川中药资源的开发利用和发展方向；（１）以资源化优势为依托，大力发展创泡中草药；（２）以地道药材为优势，建立稳定的药材基地（３）以综合利用为途径，提高资源利用的数量和质量；（４）以资源保护为前景，保证资源的永续利用。本文     

Local economic development — the changing public/private sector relationship

The paper examines changing approaches to local economic development in the period since 1974. Initially, it proposes an ‘orthodox’ model of local economic development policies which emphasised the provision of a better industrial fabric, and of financial assistance to small, inner city firms. It suggests three recent directions of change in emphasis from this orthodox model: help in the creation of new entrepreneurs; replacement of public sector by private sector action; local authority shareholding in local firms by use of Enterprise Boards. Each approach makes different assumptions about the public/private sector relationship, the last two involve a more explicitly ideological stance on this issue.     

The grassroot development planning process: the role of physical planning in the rural environment

The concern of this paper is with the spatial consequences of development in a given rural setting and the way in which physical planning fits into the revival of a dying rural area, particularly in Third World Countries. It is based on experience derived from Dekinal in Benue State, Nigeria and endeavours to define a rural area by briefly discussing its characteristics and highlighting its problems. It proposes a comprehensive development planning process to induce development based on available resources.