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191.
环境生物样品预处理中的微波溶样技术 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
微波溶样是近年产生的一种崭新的有前途的样品预处理技术,本文评述这一技术在环境、生物样品消解方面的近期应用。 相似文献
192.
本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质,提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列,环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列,通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度,按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用4个实例与其它方法进行了对比,取得满意的效果。 相似文献
193.
MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
文中以时间序列分析为基础,介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念,并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型(简记为MFAM),经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧(DO),氨氧,化学耗氧量(COD),五日生化需氧量(BOD5)等序列模拟,结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势,拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%,MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化,结果表明预测精度达85%以上,文中最后得出结论:MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测,是完全可行且十分方便。 相似文献
194.
BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roman Krzysztofowicz 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(5):805-814
Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts. 相似文献
195.
J. R. M. Hosking 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(4):677-682
ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented. 相似文献
196.
Sheryl L. Franklin David R. Maidment 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(4):611-621
ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data. 相似文献
197.
J. P. Haltiner J. D. Salas 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(5):1083-1089
ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters. 相似文献
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200.
快速断电安全技术中半导体中性点开关结构性能的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对我国目前半导体中性点开关的结构 ,工作过程 ,性能进行了分析 ;现行中性点开关所存在的问题为电路拓扑结构不合理 ,关断时间过长或过短 ,过长不满足快速断电安全技术的要求 ,过短又易引起过电压 ,使中性点开关失控。笔者提出了采用绝缘门极双极性晶体管 (IGBT) ,构成半导体中性点开关的可行方案。同时指出 ,开发新型快速断电安全技术装置 ,将大大提高我国煤矿安全技术水平 相似文献