中国大陆水资源强度的收敛特征检验:基于省际面板数据的实证

文章从水资源与居民生活、生产及生态环境等要素构成的复合系统视角,借鉴能源强度概念内涵界定了水资源强度、水资源相对强度概念及其内涵,并提出相应表征方法,在此基础上依据有关用水部门的面板数据对2003—2013年中国大陆地区的省际水资源强度收敛特征进行了实证检验。结果表明:1)省际居民生活用水及农业用水强度差异变化相对平稳,σ-收敛趋势不明显;工业用水强度经历了"发散—平稳—收敛"的演变趋势;生态用水强度的σ-收敛趋势波动较大,且整体收敛速度较快,省际差异迅速缩小;2)大陆80%以上的省区4个用水部门的水资源相对强度受到的正面影响是持续的,整体未受短期冲击效应影响,故不具备全局性的随机收敛特征;3)4用水部门水资源强度具备绝对β-收敛特征,收敛速度分别为3.17%(居民生活用水)、4.21%(农业用水)、1.82%(工业用水)和12.41%(生态用水);4)东部省区生态用水强度呈俱乐部收敛趋势,西部省区居民生活用水和生态用水具备俱乐部收敛特征,中部省区的4用水部门均呈俱乐部收敛趋势;5)4用水部门均存在条件β-收敛特征,其中:显著驱动居民生活用水、工业用水及生态用水强度收敛的因素分别是第三产业比重、工业废水达标率和年降水量,而显著制约三者收敛的因素则分别为进出口总额、人均国民生产总值及工业废水达标率。     

大气生成宇宙成因核素~(10)Be在中国黄土中的应用研究进展

中国黄土~(10)Be研究大体上经历了三个阶段:(1)地球化学行为研究:~(10)Be主要吸附于细颗粒及粘土颗粒,在黄土中保存性好,不会发生明显的化学迁移过程;(2)古气候代用指标应用:~(10)Be在黄土和古土壤层中的浓度变化与代表气候变化的深海氧同位素曲线变化一致,且可借此进行黄土年代标尺的建立;(3)地球环境示踪研究:示踪地磁场倒转及漂移事件,恢复古地磁场相对强度变化,以及定量重建黄土高原地区古降水变化历史等。由于近年来黄土~(10)Be环境示踪研究取得了可喜的成果,笔者认为有必要从以上三个方面对中国黄土~(10)Be研究历史进行较为系统的梳理回顾,总结当前最新研究进展,展望未来黄土~(10)Be在环境示踪中的研究方向,希望能使读者在短时间内了解中国黄土~(10)Be研究的发展脉络。     

爆破和降雨作用下诱发含后缘裂缝岩质边坡失稳机制研究

为了探讨爆破和降雨对边坡失稳的影响,基于边坡实际结构,提出了将滑面分为后缘张拉裂缝段、中部锁固段、下部剪切滑动段。利用断裂力学理论,分析了爆破和降雨双重工况下的裂缝起裂扩展判据。基于格里菲斯（Griffith）能量准则,推导了边坡滑动块断裂后沿底滑面的剧动距离。通过实例验证了理论计算的可行性和适用性,研究结果表明:边坡表面裂缝起裂的根本动力为降雨、爆破以及二者的共同作用;在一定外力条件下,裂缝起裂扩展存在最小临界深度;降雨和爆破共同作用时,裂缝扩展临界深度最小;中部锁固段长度为控制边坡失稳的关键因素;降雨并不能使裂缝扩展,预知裂缝深度时,可通过控制爆破药量来控制边坡失稳。     

圆拱形缺陷对砂岩力学特征影响的试验研究

为研究含圆拱形预制缺陷砂岩的力学特征,在板状黄砂岩试样内预制了不同α值的圆拱形缺陷。采用YNS-2000型电液伺服控制试验系统和数字照相采集系统研究了不同圆拱形缺陷倾角α对黄砂岩力学特征和破坏模式的影响规律。研究结果表明:试样峰值强度、平均模量和割线模量随着α的增大呈先减小后增大再减小趋势,α=30°试样峰值强度和峰值应变均最小,α=75°试样峰值强度和应变均达到最大;预制圆拱形缺陷α对试样起裂应力、起裂位置和破坏模式均具有重要影响,随着α值的增大,试样起裂应力总体呈先减小后增大再减小趋势,当α=30°时,试样的平均起裂应力最小,其值为10.90 MPa;当α=75°时,试样的平均起裂应力最大,其值为18.91 MPa。     

面向县（市）的地震应急处置辅助决策系统研究

为了解决当前县（市）防震减灾工作部门开展地震应急处置工作时,所依据地震应急预案缺乏针对性、可操作性的问题。考虑不同县（市）自然地理、社会经济等环境的不同,提炼影响县（市）地震应急处置的主要因素,构建不同烈度下基于多因素的地震应急处置模型;在此基础上设计,并以国家可持续发展实验区四川省丹棱县为例,研发面向县（市）的地震应急处置辅助决策系统;通过在丹棱县境内假想设定6.5级地震对系统进行测试,结果表明:地震发生后,系统能按烈度分阶段快速产出具有区域特征且操作性较强的地震应急处置方案,可为县（市）地震应急处置的科学决策等提供有效的辅助决策建议。     

Economic performance and carbon intensity of human well-being: empirical evidence from the MENA region

Our paper explores the effect of economic performance variables on the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB) for 13 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period (1995–2013). We use a time-series cross-sectional Prais–Winsten regression model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSEs). We find that economic performance has a statistically significant positive influence on CIWB over the period in question; thus, economic performance harms the environment, but the final effect deviates to a constant level after a while. This finding is not encouraging from the economic sustainability point of view. On the contrary, we find that total health expenditure has a statistically significant negative impact on CIWB by increasing life expectancy, which means less stress on the environment.     

Availability estimation of a multi-state wind farm in fuzzy environment

Wind is one of the fastest growing renewable energy resources in the electric power system. Availability of wind energy is volatile in nature due to the stochastic behavior of wind speed and non-linear variation of the wind power curve of wind turbine generator. Because of this impression and uncertainty, the availability estimation of wind power has become a challenging issue. In this paper, Markov Fuzzy Reward technique has been proposed for finding out the reliability of wind farm by assessing the availability of wind power. According to this technique, availability of the wind power has been estimated considering wind farm and demand both as a multi-state system. In addition to the availability, different reliability indices such as the number of absolute failures, mean time to deficiency, and probability of failures of a wind farm have been assessed in a time horizon, which can provide useful information for the power system planner at wind farm installing stage. A comparison of this study reveals the efficacy of the proposed Markov Fuzzy Reward approach over the conventional Markov Reward approach.     

Mill’s scissors: structural change and the natural-resource inputs to labour

The environmental structural change strategy claims that by shifting our expenditures to economic sectors with lower environmental intensity, absolute resource consumption and environmental impact can be lowered. Environmental Input-Output methodologies for computing these intensities attribute no resource consumption to labour or households because these are not classified as sectors. The suggestion that service sectors entail less environmental impact, however, loses force if a unit of labour contains embodied energy, and attributing these inputs to labour drastically reduces intensity variation between sectors. Relative growth of service sectors has furthermore not been accompanied by decreased resource consumption; thus models whose intensity computations cover not only inter-firm payments but also labour earnings and household expenditures may have superior predictive power. If moreover natural-resource and labour inputs to product are incommensurable, intensity ratios themselves have perhaps only monetary, rather than real, significance.     

变电站复杂声场中多点噪声源的鉴别

复杂声场中单个声源的鉴别和评价是噪声污染控制的重要环节。简要介绍了几种常用的噪声源鉴别方法,然后结合变电站复杂声场中噪声产生的实际情况,针对变电站主要声源噪声的特性提出了两种方法的基本原理和具体操作步骤,即声强测量法和基于波叠加的噪声源识别方法,用以进行变电站中多点噪声源的鉴别。这为建立变电站声场中多点声源鉴别的标准方法提供了可能;对于厂界噪声超过环保部门确定标准的变电站,应用这些方法可以提供明确的治理思路。     

Technological Progress,Structural Change and China''s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techni...