长江经济带碳排放现状及未来碳减排

长江经济带是我国"三大支撑带"之一,其碳减排目标实现对我国生态文明建设具有重要意义。采用2005~2013年长江经济带(含9省2市)的能源消耗与经济社会数据,通过数理统计,得出各地历年碳排放量、人均碳排放、能源强度、产业结构多元水平的具体数值及变化率,结合运用弹性计算和矩阵分类法,发现长江经济带碳排放存在空间与结构差异。研究结果显示:(1)长江经济带碳排放及增长率、人均碳排放及增长率、能源强度都高于全国平均水平,能源强度下降率低于全国平均水平;把长江经济带分为东中西三段区域,碳排放总量、人均碳排放及能源强度下降率梯度下降,碳排放增长率、人均碳排放增长率、能源强度梯度上升。(2)工业化开始越早、重工业化主导向生产性服务业主导转变越快、越充分地区,经济低碳化水平越高;通过提升产业结构多元化速度有利于碳减排。(3)长江经济带各地实现碳减排措施应有不同,东段地区应着重降低人均碳排放,中西段地区应着重于降低能源强度。(4)未来碳减排应兼顾公平与效率,各地区碳减排目标分配应结合各地支付能力、碳汇能力、生产效率、能源结构等因素来安排。     

Reframing the concept of alternative livelihoods

Alternative livelihood project (ALP) is a widely used term for interventions that aim to reduce the prevalence of activities deemed to be environmentally damaging by substituting them with lower impact livelihood activities that provide at least equivalent benefits. ALPs are widely implemented in conservation, but in 2012, an International Union for Conservation of Nature resolution called for a critical review of such projects based on concern that their effectiveness was unproven. We focused on the conceptual design of ALPs by considering their underlying assumptions. We placed ALPs within a broad category of livelihood‐focused interventions to better understand their role in conservation and their intended impacts. We dissected 3 flawed assumptions about ALPs based on the notions of substitution, the homogenous community, and impact scalability. Interventions based on flawed assumptions about people's needs, aspirations, and the factors that influence livelihood choice are unlikely to achieve conservation objectives. We therefore recommend use of a sustainable livelihoods approach to understand the role and function of environmentally damaging behaviors within livelihood strategies; differentiate between households in a community that have the greatest environmental impact and those most vulnerable to resource access restrictions to improve intervention targeting; and learn more about the social–ecological system within which household livelihood strategies are embedded. Rather than using livelihood‐focused interventions as a direct behavior‐change tool, it may be more appropriate to focus on either enhancing the existing livelihood strategies of those most vulnerable to conservation‐imposed resource access restrictions or on use of livelihood‐focused interventions that establish a clear link to conservation as a means of building good community relations. However, we recommend that the term ALP be replaced by the broader term livelihood‐focused intervention. This avoids the implicit assumption that alternatives can fully substitute for natural resource‐based livelihood activities.     

Using deep-belief networks to understand propensity for livelihood change in a rural coastal community to further conservation

Overharvesting of terrestrial and marine resources may be alleviated by encouraging an alternative configuration of livelihoods, particularly in rural communities in developing countries. Typical occupations in such areas include fishing and farming, and rural households often switch livelihood activities to suit climate and economic conditions. We used a machine-learning tool, deep-belief networks (DBN), and data from surveys of a rural Philippine coastal community to examine household desire to change livelihood. This desire is affected by a variety of factors, such as income, family needs, and feelings of work satisfaction, that are interrelated in complex ways. In farming households, livelihood changes often occur to diversify resources, increase income, and lessen economic risk. The DBN, given its multilayer perceptron structure, has a capacity to model nonlinear relationships among factors while providing an acceptable degree of accuracy. Relative to a set of 34 features (e.g., education, boat ownership, and work satisfaction), we examined the binary response variables desire to change work or not to change work. The best network had a test set accuracy of 97.5%. Among the features, 7 significantly affected desire to shift work: ethnicity, work satisfaction, number of persons in a household in ill health, number of fighting cocks owned, fishing engagement, buy-and-sell revenue, and educational level. A cross-correlation matrix of these 7 features indicated households less inclined to change work were those engaged in fishing and retail buying and selling. For fishing, provision of economic and other incentives should be considered to encourage changing from this occupation to allow recovery of fishery resources.     

Evaluating internalization of multifunctionality by farm diversification: evidence from educational dairy farms in Japan

Farm diversification by farmers' open-door policy generates opportunities for farmers to internalize externalities of multifunctionality. Although the educational function of agriculture is an example of such an open-door policy and is attracting growing attention, this function has been little explored. To promote farm diversification in this direction, this paper examined how and to what degree farmers internalize externalities of multifunctionality by focusing on the educational function provided by dairy farming, i.e., farming experience services, in Japan. The main findings were as follows. First, we can say that the educational function is determined by ordinary technical jointness as well as institutional jointness, which is represented by food culture and the agrarian heritage. Both the technical and institutional jointness enhanced the externality. Because of these two working factors, there is a U-shaped relationship between farm diversification and provision of farming experience services. Second, however, an empirical evaluation indicated that farmers only partially internalize educational externalities by treating them as supplementary services combined with processed milk products. Therefore, appropriate integrated management of these newly emerging educational services to become a viable market should be fully addressed in the future, especially for family farms.     

草原生态补奖政策对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响——基于生计分化的调节效应分析

实现对牲畜养殖规模的有效管控是草原生态补奖政策成败的关键。在农牧民生计分化日益加深的背景下,探讨草原生态补奖政策与生计分化对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响,对于完善草原生态补奖政策,实现草原生态保护与农牧民生计转换的有机结合具有重要的现实意义。本文阐释了草原生态补奖政策影响农牧民牲畜养殖规模的机理,并引入生计分化变量,基于实地调研获取的317份农牧交错区农牧民微观数据,运用最小二乘回归和分位数回归实证分析了草原生态补奖政策对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响以及生计分化在草原生态补奖政策影响农牧民牲畜养殖规模中的调节效应。研究结果表明:①补奖金额与牲畜养殖规模之间存在稳健的“倒U型”关系,表明补奖政策在短期内对牲畜数量的增加具有积极的促进作用,但随着补奖金额的增加,促进作用将逐渐减弱,最终趋于抑制。②根据非农牧收入占比和生计对牧业生产依赖程度的差异可将农牧民分为牧业为主型、农业为主型、均衡型、高兼型和深兼型五种类型农牧民。③农牧民生计分化对牲畜养殖规模的扩大具有抑制作用,且在草原生态补奖政策与牲畜养殖规模二者关系中具有调节作用。即在“倒U型”曲线的左侧,生计分化能够弱化草原生态补奖政策对牲畜养殖规模扩大的促进作用;在“倒U型”曲线的右侧,生计分化能够促使补奖金额对牲畜养殖规模的负向影响趋于放缓,有助于避免因补奖金额的增加引致牲畜养殖数量的锐减。根据以上结论,建议政府应进一步提高补奖标准以增强补奖弥补损失的有效性,重视发挥农牧民生计分化在牲畜养殖规模调控中的作用。     

湖北省酸雨变化特征及成因分析

根据湖北省酸雨2006-2010年五年的监测结果,文章分析了"十一五"湖北省酸雨现状变化特征,根据地理环境分析,并结合当地环境统计中成酸污染物排放情况,讨论了湖北省酸雨的变化特点及形成原因。     

民事司法改革进程中环境纠纷行政处理问题探析

民事司法手段的局限性限制了司法手段在环境纠纷解决中的地位和作用。民事司法改革进程的深入发展和多元化纠纷解决机制的兴盛为环境纠纷的多元化解决途径带来了新的发展契机。环境纠纷行政处理的专业性、便捷性、可接近性决定了行政处理在环境纠纷解决中的独特作用和适用空间。在借鉴发达国家和地区环境纠纷行政处理的立法经验和灵活多样的纠纷解决途径的基础上,从环境纠纷行政处理专门立法、纠纷解决机构设置、纠纷解决方式、行政处理的纠纷范围、行政处理救济的程序保障等方面,提出完善我国环境纠纷行政处理制度的思考和建议。     

水务企业多元化模式探讨

以在沪深两市上市的22家以涉水业务为主营业务的企业为研究样本,从战略相关多元化与非相关多元化的角度,利用优化的Jacquemin-Berry熵测度模型,定量展现了一幅水务企业多元化发展的图景。并基于核心资源与能力理论,总结了水务企业不同的多元化发展模式。研究发现,在样本企业中,存在三种主要模式:以资本运营为核心的综合多元化扩张、以技术研发为核心的战略相关多元化扩张和以非水务资源为核心的非相关多元化扩张。其中,实行综合多元化扩张的水务企业更倾向于成长为我国本土大型、综合、流域型水务集团。     

企业资源协同战略与可持续发展案例研究

目前采取相关多角化经营的企业有许多成功和失败的案例。怎么样才能够有效的使用企业所拥有的战略性资源，协调公司内部各个业务单元的相互关系，提高企业的整体价值，从而实现企业的可持续发展，是我们应该关注的问题核心。在有效的实现企业内部资源的系统，产生良好的协同效益的基础上向新的相关市场拓展也许是有效的解决之道。本文将结合一个汽车服务企业的案例进行探讨如何实现资源的协同，如何通过组织结构的调整支持这种协同，以实现企业的可持续发展。     

Emergency relief,crop diversification and institution building: the case of sesame in The Gambia

This article examines the case of the Catholic Relief Service's (CRS) sesame support programme in The Gambia which has spanned more than 25 years. It outlines the transformation process from relief to development and the role that the production of an agricultural commodity, sesame, has played as a key building block. Following the drought of the 1980s, concerns to move away from dependence on food aid first led to agronomic trials of imported oilseed, then to the selection and dissemination of improved sesame varieties accompanied by an elaborate and costly support programme. This gradually developed into a long-term development-oriented intervention, paving the way for the development of a national women's farmers' organisation. The paper provides a case study of an intervention that has gone beyond the provision of seed to address agronomic research and extension, policy, marketing and institutional issues necessary for successful crop diversification.