Introducing a multi-variate classification method: Risky driving acceptance among different heterogeneous driver sub-cultures

Introduction: Heterogeneous driving populations with many different origins are likely to have various sub-cultures that comprise of drivers with shared driver characteristics, most likely with dissimilar traffic safety cultures. An innovative methodology in traffic safety research is introduced which is beneficial for large datasets with multiple variables, making it useful for the multi-variate classification of drivers, driving attitudes and/or (risky) driving behaviours. Method: With the application of multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS), this study explores traffic safety culture in the State of Qatar using a questionnaire and investigates the similarity patterns between the questionnaire items, aiming to classify attitudes towards risky driving behaviours into themes. MDS is subsequently applied to classify drivers within a heterogeneous driving sample into sub-cultures with shared driver characteristics and different risky driving attitudes. Results: Results show that acceptance of speeding is highest among the young Arabic students and acceptance of distraction and drivers’ negligence such as phone use and not wearing a seatbelt is highest among male Arab drivers. Acceptance of extreme risk-taking like intoxicated driving and red-light running is highest among South-Asian business drivers. Conclusion: It is important and practical to understand risky behavioural habits among sub-cultures and thereby focussing on groups of drivers instead of individuals, because groups are easier to approach and drivers within sub-cultures are found to influence each other. By indicating which groups of drivers are most likely to perform specific risky driving themes, it is possible to target these groups and effectively emphasise certain subsets of risky driving behaviours during training or traffic safety education. Practical Applications: This study provides guidance for the improvement of driver education and targeted traffic safety awareness campaigns, intending to make changes to attitudes and habits within specific driver sub-cultures with the aim to improve traffic safety on the longer term.     

重型柴油车实际道路排放与行驶工况的相关性研究

采用SEMTECH-D车载排放测试仪测量了东风柴油卡车在城市实际道路工况以及等速和加速工况下的油耗及污染物排放状况.测试结果显示,测试卡车实际道路综合百公里油耗为17.8 L,NOx、CO和HC排放因子分别为3.96、8.86和2.15g·km-1.其中主干道路况相对较差,油耗与排放因子较高,是所有测试道路平均水平的1.3～1.8倍左右.研究结果表明,重型车油耗及污染物排放与各行驶工况下的速度、加速度均密切相关,车辆在高速加速行驶状态下易产生高排放.车辆在30～50 km·h-1速度区间内等速行驶时,油耗与排放因子最为经济且环境友好.车辆在加速行驶时,油耗与NOx、CO排放因子可达到城市实际道路平均水平的2.0、2.2、1.4倍,急加速时达到2.8、2.1、14倍.应用比功率概念可准确描述车辆在各运行工况下的排放水平,但在重型车上缺乏实验依据,有待进一步研究.     

江苏苏中3市的沿江岸线资源开发利用变化及驱动因素

长江是我国重要的黄金水道,其岸线资源有着丰富的开发利用价值。近年来,苏中地区长江岸线资源利用发展迅速。因此,选取苏中扬州、泰州、南通3市为研究对象,基于2002年和2008年的长江岸线利用状况数据,对比分析了3市岸线发展变化的规律。研究表明:2002年以来,苏中3市的岸线利用率大幅提高;新增岸线中工业岸线占比最大,港口岸线和生活服务岸线次之;工业岸线和生活服务岸线的增幅最为显著;各类型岸线的增加主要来源于未利用岸线,已有岸线类型的转换主要流向工业岸线和未利用岸线。港口建设需求、沿江基础工业化进程加快、港产城融合发展、规划和政策引导等是岸线利用变化的重要驱动力。     

南京市2000~2014年城市建设用地变化及驱动因子研究

基于土地利用模型测度2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地的动态变化,再运用典型相关分析、主成分分析及逐步回归分析组合的偏最小二乘回归法对南京市城市建设用地的驱动因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地面积总体上呈上升趋势,年均增长率为11.73%;（2）南京市用地结构信息熵呈波动下降趋势,城市建设用地系统结构性增强,但是用地扩展的综合效益趋降;（3）人口增长、道路扩展、投资水平提高及文化产业发展等能够较好的解释南京市城市建设用地的增长,这4类因子对城市建设用地变化具有正向作用;（4）逐步线性回归结果表明,园林绿地面积的增加相对其他因子对南京市建设用地规模增长的作用最大,其次是道路长度和公路里程。     

家庭部门生活能源消费碳排放:测度与驱动因素研究

本文运用IPCC的二氧化碳排放量测算方法,在省际层面测度了我国家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放,并基于扩展的STIRPAT和Kaya模型,构建家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放影响因子动态面板数据模型,对我国2003-2012年分省面板数据样本及城乡子样本进行系统GMM估计。本文研究表明,第一,我国城乡家庭部门碳排放总量和人均碳排放在近十年都呈快速上升趋势,家庭部门碳排放的空间分布具有明显的地域差异特征,高碳排放地区主要集中在东、中部地区,西部地区的碳排放水平较低;第二,城乡家庭部门生活能源消费的上期碳排放量对本期碳排放产生重要的正向影响,这反映出我国家庭部门碳排放具有显著的惯性特征和路径依赖性,是一种动态自适应机制;人口规模、居民消费水平、能源消费结构、碳排放强度、能源消费强度和城镇化因素,都对我国居民能源消费碳排放总量及人均碳排放具有显著的影响,城乡之间的家庭能源消费碳排放驱动因素存在差异。本文研究得到如下启示及政策含义:家庭部门碳减排将是一个有步骤、分区域的渐进过程,我国碳减排政策应当兼顾消费升级和碳排放的双重目标,努力构建分层次碳减排的适应性预期机制。具体而言,一方面应着眼于引导和激励居民低碳消费,缓解人口规模增加、消费水平提升和城镇化对家庭部门碳减排的压力;另一方面要通过能源价格改革、财政政策和环境规制政策等优化我国能源消费结构,不断降低煤炭消费比重,提高清洁能源的消费。同时,通过技术创新、设备改造等科技手段提高煤炭利用效率,降低碳排放强度,这些政策将更有利于城镇家庭部门碳减排。     

南方丘陵地区河谷城市用地时空演变与驱动分析——以上饶市城区为例

以揭示中国南方丘陵地区河谷城市的空间演变过程和特征为目的,以上饶市城区为例,在遥感与GIS技术的支持下,对1988~2013年间上饶市城区城市用地的时空演变过程、特征及驱动影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,1988~2013年的25 a间,上饶市城区城市用地呈现出快速增长的态势,城市形态的演变具有明显的时空特征:时间序列上,不论扩展幅度还是扩展速度,2001~2013年间的值均高于1988~2001年间的值,前后两个时段的扩展特征呈现出明显的差异性;空间格局上,上饶市城区以老城区的中心广场为中心向四周扩展,先后经历了放射性扩展、组团式分散扩展两个阶段,同时呈现出明显的方向分异性,西南和西为其主要扩展方向,而其东南方向的扩展速度最为缓慢。自然环境中的地貌对上饶市城区城市用地的扩展起到很大的限制作用,经济社会的发展、政策规划等因素成为城市用地扩张与时空演化的外在驱动因素。     

模拟车用工况下5kW燃料电池尾气净化系统

模拟了车用工况下燃料电池发动机脉冲式排氢的特点,设计开发了一套质子交换膜燃料电池的尾气净化系统,并以5 kW燃料电池的尾气排放为例,研究其净化效果。研究了电池阳极排放氢气缓冲前后尾气中氢气浓度的变化,以及不同空速条件下氢气的去除效果。结果表明：电堆阳极排放氢气经过缓冲处理后,尾气中氢气浓度趋于平稳,大部分工况下处在2%以下,达到了安全处理的要求;尾气中氢气的去除效果与空速密切相关。对自制的整体式催化剂而言,当空速低于20000 h^-1时,氢气的去除率能达到约95%,而当空速达到39270 h^-1时,氢气的去除率仅为10.9%。鉴于这一问题,提出通过采用尾排空气的分流手段调整催化燃烧反应器对空速的要求,以提高尾气中氢气的去除率。     

The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.     

基于加速度干扰和AHP的车辆行驶安全性评价模型

关于行驶中的车辆在交通系统各因素作用下的行驶安全性评价,在现有交通系统四大要素的基础上加入车辆行驶状态,构成"人-车-环境-路-车辆行驶状态"5要素。并对各要素评价指标的选定做了细致的筛选,建立了车辆行驶安全性评价指标体系。其中"人-车-环境-路"因素采用打分的形式确定其参数的分值,并利用层次分析法(AHP)计算各参数权重来构建模型的;"车辆行驶状态"因素则是引入加速度干扰的定义,建立基于道路结构的加速度干扰模型。最后,运用层级分析法建立了总的车辆行驶安全评价模型。     

Teaching adolescents safe driving and passenger behaviors: effectiveness of the You Hold the Key Teen Driving Countermeasure

PROBLEM: Unsafe driving and passenger behaviors place teens at increased risk for fatal and nonfatal crashes. This study evaluated the short-and long-term efficacy of the You Hold the Key (YHTK) Teen Driving Countermeasure. METHOD: A two-page survey was completed by high school students at pretest, posttest, and long-term (6-month) posttest. RESULTS: YHTK was associated with significant immediate and long-term improvements in teen seatbelt use, safe driving, and perceived confidence in preventing drunk driving. Compared to pretests, students at immediate and long-term posttest more frequently wore seatbelts when driving or riding, required passengers to wear seatbelts, and limited the number of passengers to the number of seatbelts in the vehicle. Students were more likely at both posttests to avoid drinking and driving and to say no to riding with a friend who had been drinking. SUMMARY: YHTK was associated with increases in safe teen driving and passenger behaviors. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Success of YHTK is most notably due to its comprehensive nature. Future programs should consider comprehensive strategies when attempting to modify teen behaviors.