Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive?1

Lins, Harry F. and Timothy A. Cohn, 2011. Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):475‐480. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00542.x Abstract: Aligning engineering practice with natural process behavior would appear, on its face, to be a prudent and reasonable course of action. However, if we do not understand the long‐term characteristics of hydroclimatic processes, how does one find the prudent and reasonable course needed for water management? We consider this question in light of three aspects of existing and unresolved issues affecting hydroclimatic variability and statistical inference: Hurst‐Kolmogorov phenomena; the complications long‐term persistence introduces with respect to statistical understanding; and the dependence of process understanding on arbitrary sampling choices. These problems are not easily addressed. In such circumstances, humility may be more important than physics; a simple model with well‐understood flaws may be preferable to a sophisticated model whose correspondence to reality is uncertain.     

Utility of Measuring Abundance versus Consistent Occupancy in Predicting Biodiversity Persistence

Abstract:  The primary goals of reserve selection are to represent all chosen units of biodiversity and to ensure their long-term persistence while minimizing costs. We considered two simple proxies of species persistence: a time series of point-count data to calculate abundance and a time series of presence–absence data to calculate permanence (a measure of consistent occupancy over time). Using two 10-year intervals of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we compared the performance of each measure at predicting persistence 18 years later. For nonrare species, abundance and permanence predicted persistence similarly well. We performed complementarity-based reserve selections with data on species abundance and permanence (from 1970 to 1979) and then evaluated the effectiveness of the reserve networks at maintaining species populations and efficiency in land use (data from 1997 to 2006). Abundance proved a better predictor of future local persistence than permanence, which justifies the relatively larger financial and temporal costs of collecting a time series of point-count data to estimate abundance. If future extinction events were used as a measure of reserve-network effectiveness, the performance of abundance and permanence did not differ markedly. Nevertheless, when future abundance, which is a more sensitive measure of network effectiveness, was used, abundance was significantly better than permanence at selecting longer-term, high-quality, species-specific habitat but required larger reserves to do so .     

Effect of sunlight radiation,rainfall and droplet spectra of sprays on persistence of bacillus thuringiensis deposits after application of dipel® 76af formulation onto conifers

Abstract

The effect of sunlight radiation, rainfall and droplet spectra of sprays on per ‐sistence of a Bacillus thuringiensis subspp. kurstaki (Btk) formulation, DiPel^® 76AF, was examined after application onto spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] foliage. The investigation consisted of three studies: (i) Study I: a laboratory microcosm study to examine the photostability of DiPel 76AF deposits on foliage after different periods of exposure to two radiation intensities, (ii) Study II: a laboratory microcosm study to examine the rainfastness of foliar deposits after exposure to different amounts of rainfall consisting of two separate droplet spectra, and (iii) Study III: a field microcosm study to investigate the influence of two different droplet spectra of DiPel 76AF sprays on foliar persistence of Btk under natural weathering conditions. In all studies, persistence of Btk was investigated both by bioassay [using spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens)] and total protein assay.

The findings of Study I indicated that bioactivity of foliar deposits decreased with increasing duration of exposure to radiation, and with increasing radiation intensity. The half‐life (DT₅₀, the exposure period required for 50% of the initial bioactivity to disappear) was 5.1 d for the low intensity, and 3.9 d for the higher intensity. In contrast with the bioassay results, the total protein levels [determined by the bicinchoninic acid (BCA) method] showed no decrease with increasing duration of exposure, or with increasing radiation intensity.

The findings of Study II indicated that bioactivity of foliar deposits decreased with increasing cumulative rainfall. A new term, RF₅₀ [the amount of rain (in mm) required to washoff 50% of the initial deposit], was introduced to understand the relationship between rainfall intensity and reduction in bioactivity. When the same amount of rain was applied in different droplet sizes, the RF₅₀ value was high (5.2 mm) for the small rain droplets, and was low (2.9 mm) for the large rain droplets. Similar to the bioassay results, the total protein concentrations (determined by the BCA method) decreased with increasing amount of rain and with increasing rainfall intensity. The RF₅₀ value (obtained using ng protein /cm²) was 5.4 mm for the small rain droplets, and was 3.4 mm for the large rain droplets.

The field microcosm study indicated that when DiPel 76AF was applied in small droplets (D_v.5 of 65 μm), the persistence of bioactivity was ca 8.0 d, whereas when it was applied in large droplets (D_v.5 of 130 nm) it was ca 11 d. Bioactivity decreased with time after spray, and the DT₅₀ was 1.98 d for the spray of small droplets, and 2.87 d for that of large droplets. Similar to the bioactivity, the total protein concentrations also decreased with time after spray, and the DT₅₀ values for the small and large droplet spectra were 3.45 and 6.07 d respectively.     

Variance and Uncertainty in the Expected Number of Occurrences in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Reserve selection often concerns the design of reserve networks for the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. We considered uncertainty in the context of three common reserve-selection formulations, the expected number of populations, proportional coverage of land-cover types, and the probability of having at least one population. By uncertainty, we mean variance in the outcome of any probability-based reserve selection formulation. A typical reserve-selection formulation might ask for the least expensive set of sites that contains n populations per species. It is implicit here that this requirement concerns the expected number of populations, which actually is obtained only with a 50% chance. If the requirement is changed to select the least expensive set of sites that gives n populations per species with a 95% probability, the number of sites required in the solution increases and the identity of the sites is changed toward sites that have high probabilities of persistence (or occurrence) and low associated binomial variance. Anthropogenic threat is one factor that may cause probabilistic uncertainty in the context of proportional area coverage.     

稻-麦轮作模式下不同钝化材料对镉污染农田土壤的原位钝化效应

为明确大田条件下施用钝化材料对镉(Cd)污染农田土壤的原位钝化效应及其持续性,以秸秆生物炭、 YH粉、粉煤灰、海泡石和页岩粉(粒径均<0.2 mm,施用量均为2.25kg·m^-2)这5种钝化材料为研究对象,连续监测3 a稻-麦轮作模式下原位钝化处理对土壤养分、土壤酸碱度、土壤Cd污染状况和种植作物籽粒Cd含量的影响,探讨其钝化效应及持续性,为有效控制农田土壤Cd污染、保证作物安全生产提供理论依据和数据支撑.结果表明：(1)稻-麦轮作模式下,施用5种钝化材料对土壤养分含量影响较小,但均可提高土壤pH,促使土壤Cd由酸提取态向残渣态转化,降低土壤Cd有效性,其中秸秆生物炭与YH粉处理下当季土壤有效Cd含量的降幅最大(20.42%～22.53%),是其它钝化处理的1.07～1.84倍.(2)稻-麦轮作模式下,首年施用5种钝化材料后均显著降低了水稻和小麦籽粒Cd含量,降幅分别达19.88%～48.77%和5.06%～24.00%.施用秸秆生物炭、粉煤灰和YH粉后作物籽粒Cd含量显著低于对照和其它钝化材料,该处理条件下的水稻籽粒ω(Cd)(0.195、0.197和0....     

The EU-project ERAPharm. Incentives for the further development of guidance documents?

- Triggered by the detection of a large variety of pharmaceuticals in surface waters, soils and groundwaters across the world (e.g. Halling- Sørensen et al. 1998, Daughton & Ternes 1999, Jones et al. 2001, Heberer 2002) and the widespread occurrence of endocrine active compounds and related effects in the environment (e.g. Purdom et al. 1994, Tyler et al. 1998, Vethaak et al. 2002), pharmaceuticals in the environment have become an issue for both the scientific and the public community. During the last few years, our understanding of the fate and effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment has progressed significantly. However, there are still a number of uncertainties concerning the effects of pharmaceuticals on the environment and the assessment of potential exposure (e.g. Hanisch et al. 2004, Salomon 2005). These uncertainties will be addressed by the EU-project ‘Environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals’ (ERAPharm). This project, a specific targeted research project, is carried out within the priority ‘Global change and ecosystems’ of the 6th framework programme of the European Union. ERAPharm has started on 1st October 2004; the project duration is three years.     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

THE PROBABILITY OF CONSECUTIVE RAINLESS DAYS1

ABSTRACT: A major objective of this work was to develop a method applicable to the Intermountain region for estimating the probability of n consecutive dry days, where n ≤ 30 days. One result was a computationally simple method of producing the desired estimates directly from the rainfall record. For a consecutive dry-day period of n days, these estimates are equivalent to those obtained from a Markov model of order n-1. The efficacy of a simple Markov model was also evaluated. In this climatic region, the simple Markov model produces probability estimates of consecutive dry days that are too conservative, especially at long dry-day periods. In this data set, it was found that the longer the dry-day sequence, the more conservative the Markov estimate. The source of these conservative estimates is the strong dry-day persistence, which is characteristic of summer weather in the Intermountain region. In this region, the best estimates of the probability of consecutive dry days are probably those obtained directly from a representative rainfall record and smoothed by the partial sums of a fourier Series.     

农药在生态环境中的持久性及残留的研究方法

本文报导农药在生态环境中的持久性及残的研究方法，它包括农药在作物、土壤和水等环境介质中的持外性，以及农药在这些介质中中的残留量与农药的施用量和施药次数的关系等方面的内容，本文还介绍了农药在作物中最高残留限量与安全间隔期的计算方法。