贫困的“物以类聚”：中国的农村空间贫困陷阱及其识别

理解贫困陷阱及其成因是理解减贫机制,进而理解贫困治理的基础。早期的实证研究注重从收入的角度研究农村贫困,较新的研究开始关注“空间外部性”对农村贫困的影响。然而,要正确识别农村的“贫困陷阱”,就需要对上述两个维度同时进行解释。鉴于此,运用中国县级层面的面板数据,从聚集与持久两个维度对中国的农村贫困陷阱进行了识别。研究结果表明：2006—2016年,中国农村的贫困空间格局几乎没有变化,并且贫困的空间分布与经济增长也并非是同步的,贫困县的分布主要与地形（坡度、海拔）因素有关;进一步研究还发现,中国的农村贫困具有持久性,贫困县收入存在低水平的均衡,贫困县与非贫困县之间存在收入的“俱乐部收敛”。本文揭示了空间外部性与农村贫困之间的关系,为正确评估经济发展与扶贫开发,合理制定区域反贫困瞄准机制提供了支持。     

Persistence and growth of faecal culturable bacterial indicators in water column and sediments of Vidy Bay, Lake Geneva, Switzerland

The aims of this study was to investigate the persistence and the growth of culturable bacterial indicators (CBI) including total coliforms (TC) and faecal coliforms represented by Escherichia coli, enterococcus (ENT), and aerobic mesophilic bacteria (AMB) in the surface sediments and the water column of Vidy Bay (Lake Geneva, City of Lausanne, Switzerland). The study was carried out for 60 d using microcosms containing Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) e uent and nonsterile water without CBI, as well as contaminated and non-contaminated sediments. The e ects of water temperature and of organic matter associated with sediments on the survival of CBI in the sediments and the water column were observed. The number of CBI colonies in the contaminated sediments of Vidy Bay and in the STP e uent was almost identical in the order of 105–107, 104–106, 103–105, and 104–107 CFU/100 g sediment or /100 mL water for TC, E. coli, ENT, and AMB respectively. A degradation of CBI was observed in the sediments where organic mater content was low and in the water column at a temperature of 10°C after 5 d of experimentation. In addition, a growth of CBI was observed in the sediment which is rich in organic matter at 20°C. The results of this study indicate: (1) the higher concentrations of the CBI observed in di erent points in the water column of Vidy Bay may not be explained only by the recent contribution of the three potential sources of the Bay contamination including STP and the Chamberonne and Flon Rivers, but also by the persistence, removal from sediment and multiplication of CBI in the sediment and water column; (2) the sediment of Vidy Bay constitute a reservoir of CBI and can even support their growth; and (3) the CBI not only survive in sediments, but also can be remobilized and increased in the water column, therefore, it become a permanent microbiological pollution in Vidy Bay.     

Exploring Persistence in Streamflow Forecasting

In this study, the authors explore three persistence approaches in streamflow forecasting motivated by the need for forecasting model skill evaluation. The authors use streamflow observations with 15 min resolution from the year 2008 to 2017 at 140 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges monitoring the streams and rivers over the State of Iowa. The spatial scale of the basins ranges from about 7 to 37,000 km². The study explores three approaches: simple persistence, gradient persistence, and anomaly persistence. The study shows that persistence forecasts skill has strong dependence on basin scales and weaker but non‐negligible dependence on geometric properties of the river network for a given basin. Among the three approaches explored, anomaly persistence shows highest skill especially for small basins, under about 500 km². The anomaly persistence can serve as a benchmark for model evaluations considering the effect of basin scales and geometric properties of river network of the basin. This study further reiterates that persistence forecasts are hard‐to‐beat methods for larger basin scales at short to medium forecast range.     

Metolachlor persistence in laboratory and field soils under Indian tropical conditions

Abstract

Metolachlor [2‐chloro‐N‐(2‐methoxy‐1‐methylethyl)‐2'‐ethyl‐6'‐methyl acetanilide] dissipation under both field and laboratory conditions were studied during summer season in an Indian soil. Metolachlor was found to have moderate persistence with a half‐life of 27 days in field. The herbicide got leached down to 15–30 cm soil layer and residues were found up to harvest day of the sunflower crop in both 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm soil layers. Metolachlor was found to be more persistent in laboratory studies conducted for 190 days. The rate of degradation was faster in soil under flooded partial anaerobic conditions as compared to aerobic soil with a half‐life of 44.3 days. In aerobic soil, metolachlor was very stable with only 49% dissipation in 130 days. Residues remained in both the soils up to the end of the experimental period of 190 days.     

Surfactant effect on persistence of oxadiazolyl 3(2H)-pyridazinones against Pseudaletia separata walker

The photodynamic decomposition of two new insect-growth inhibitors (IGRs), 2-tert-butyl-5-[5′-aryl-2′-(1′,3′,4′-oxadiazolyl)methoxy]-3(2H)-pyridazinones (OPB) and its 4-chloro substituted derivative (OPC), and effect of surfactants on persistence of their bioactivity were taken into investigation. Both chemicals were significantly induced to photolysis by ultraviolet light at 365 nm wavelength and their inhibitory activities against Pseudaletia separata larvae decreased with the increasing irradiation time. However, irradiation at 254 nm wavelength didn't cause their photodegradation. Triton X-100 and Succinic-sulfonie acidic sodium but not Tween 60 possessed strong capability to slow down the decomposition and obviously prolonged the half life of OPC in laboratory and field whilst effects of the three surfactants almost did not preserve the inhibitory activity of OPB. Data suggested that electron-withdrawing halogen (?Cl) on the π electron system in planar benzene-oxadialyl structures might reduce the efficiency of OPC on ultraviolet (UV) photoabsorption, and its hydrophobic interaction with the surfactants might be beneficial for forming stable micellar solubilization, thus sustaining the chemical's bioactivity.     

Control of bacterial speck of tomato by copper and ethylenebisuithiocarbamate fungicides: Their efficacy and residues on leaves

Abstract

Field studies were conducted to determine the synergism, persistence, and efficacy of a tank‐mix spray of cupric hydroxide and mancozeb for control of bacterial speck of tomato. The increased efficacy of the cupric hydroxide‐mancozeb mixture could not be attributed to the formation of a bacteriostatic compound in the tank mixture nor to a greater persistence of the mixture on the tomato foliage.     

Persistence characteristics of operationally sprayed fenitrothion in nearby unsprayed areas of a conifer forest ecosystem in New Brunswick

Abstract

Persistence characteristics of operationally sprayed fenitrothion were investigated in various substrates sampled from neighbouring unsprayed areas in New Brunswick. Air, water, sediment, aquatic plants, fish, balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill] foliage, forest soil and litter samples were collected from random sampling locations selected within 200 m from the operational spray blocks. The same substrates were resampled from the same plots and from the same locations about a year later just prior to the commencement of the operational spraying. Control samples were collected from an unsprayed site, near Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. All samples were analysed for fenitrothion, by gas‐liquid chromatography. Except the fish samples all the substrates collected during the time of operational spraying contained low but detectable levels of fenitrothion. When collected a year later prior to the operational spray program, only balsam fir showed any detectable levels (detection limit, 0.01 ppm) of the chemical. All other samples showed no fenitrothion residues (detection limit for air, 10 ng/m³; for water, 0.01 ppb; and for other samples, 0.01 ppm). The findings confirmed that fenitrothion does not persist for an extended period of time in the aquatic substrates. The conifer foliage, however, showed persistent residues at a level of about 0.55 ppm even after the winter months, although there was no indication of accumulation of the chemical as a result of repeated exposure. The study demonstrated that the conifer needles acted as a micro sink for the chemical which showed a tendency to persist in the leaf tissues for a considerable length of time.     

Multicompartmental fate of persistent substances

Background, Aim and Scope Modelling of the fate of environmental chemicals can be done by relatively simple multi-media box models or using complex atmospheric transport models. It was the aim of this work to compare the results obtained for both types of models using a small set of non-ionic and non-polar or moderately polar organic chemicals, known to be distributed over long distances. Materials and Methods Predictions of multimedia exposure models of different types, namely three multimedia mass-balance box models (MBMs), two in the steady state and one in the non-steady state mode, and one non-steady state multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model (MCTM), are compared for the first time. The models used are SimpleBox, Chemrange, the MPI-MBM and the MPI-MCTM. The target parameters addressed are compartmental distributions (i.e. mass fractions in the compartments), overall environmental residence time (i.e. overall persistence and eventually including other final sinks, such as loss to the deep sea) and a measure for the long-range transport potential. These are derived for atrazine, benz-[a]-pyrene, DDT, α and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, methyl parathion and various modes of substance entry into the model world. Results and Discussion Compartmental distributions in steady state were compared. Steady state needed 2–10 years to be established in the MCTM. The highest fraction of the substances in air is predicted by the MCTM. Accordingly, the other models predict longer substance persistence in most cases. The results suggest that temperature affects the compartmental distribution more in the box models, while it is only one among many climate factors acting in the transport model. The representation of final sinks in the models, e.g. burial in the sediment, is key for model-based compartmental distribution and persistence predictions. There is a tendency of MBMs to overestimate substance sinks in air and to underestimate atmospheric transport velocity as a consequence of the neglection of the temporal and spatial variabilities of these parameters. Therefore, the long-range transport potential in air derived from MCTM simulations exceeds the one from Chemrange in most cases and least for substances which undergo slow degradation in air. Conclusions and Perspectives MBMs should be improved such as to ascertain that the significance of the atmosphere for the multicompartmental cycling is not systematically underestimated. Both types of models should be improved such as to cover degradation in air in the particle-bound state and transport via ocean currents. A detailed understanding of the deviations observed in this work and elsewhere should be gained and multimedia fate box models could then be ‘tuned in’ to match better the results of comprehensive multicompartmental transport models. ESS-Submission Editor: Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies (matthies@uos.de)     

SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

广州地区PBDEs长距离迁移潜力和总持久性模拟

运用TaPL3.0模型对7种PBDEs同系物在广州地区的长距离迁移潜力(LRTP)和总持久性(Pov)进行了模拟研究,并通过灵敏度分析得到了模型的关键参数.研究结果显示,PBDEs排放至大气中,特征迁移距离(CTD)为296~811km,均值为557km;Pov为19~279d,均值为184d;PBDEs平均约有73.8%分布在土壤中,16.9%分布在沉积物中,9.3%分布在其他三相中.PBDEs排放到水体时,CTD为3090~4291km,均值为3731km;Pov范围为228~854d,均值为731d;平均约92.1%分布在沉积物中,6.8%分布在水相中,1.1%在大气、土壤和植被相中.BDE47迁移潜力最大,BDE209易残留于源区形成点源性污染.PBDEs各同系物主要分布在沉积物和土壤中.随着溴代程度升高,CTD逐渐降低,Pov逐渐升高,与国外研究趋势一致.