遗传算法在多目标土地利用规划中的应用

在建立和求解多目标土地利用规划模型过程中，采用遗传算法并结合多目标模糊优选理论处理多目标土地利用结构优化问题。其详细步骤为：在分析区域特征基础上构建时间序列；通过现状分析设置土地利用类型决策变量、确定优化目标和约束条件。构建土地利用结构多目标优化模型；用灰色GM（1，1）预测模型对土地利用结构优化多目标模型参数进行预测；用遗传算法多目标优化方法对土地利用结构优化模型求解得pareto解集；最后运用多目标模糊动态优选方法对规划期内各时间段的pareto解集进行模糊动态优选，以最大优属度判定原则确定出最优决策序列。自贡实例表明，该方法有助于解决多目标协调问题，通过遗传算法避免了人为偏好权重的主观性，并通过提供多方案选择性，从而使规划更具灵活性，同时又便于充分吸纳公众参与，减少规划中的不确定性，增加规划的科学性、现实性和可操作性。     

黄顶菊入侵对土壤磷细菌多样性的影响

采用选择性培养基和rep—PCR聚类分析等手段,通过盆栽试验,研究了入侵植物黄顶菊对土壤中磷细菌多样性的影响。结果表明,黄顶菊入侵后增加了土壤中无机磷和有机磷细菌的数量,入侵后其数量分别为人侵前的1．17倍和1．08倍。rep—PCR基因指纹分析结果显示,黄顶菊入侵前土壤磷细菌包含19个聚类群,其中无机磷细菌10个聚类群,有机磷细菌9个聚类群;入侵后土壤磷细菌包含22个聚类群,其中无机磷细菌11个聚类群,有机磷细菌11个聚类群。多样性分析结果表明,黄顶菊入侵后土壤中无机磷细菌的丰富度指数、香农一威纳多样性指数分别为11和2．369,高于入侵前的10和2．303;有机磷细菌的丰富度指数、香农一威纳多样性指数分别为11和2．398,高于入侵前的9和2．197,而2种细菌的物种均匀度指数基本不变。本文从土壤微生态学的角度初步探讨了黄顶菊入侵对土壤微生物群落中磷细菌的影响,为进一步研究黄顶菊入侵的地下化感机制和竞争机制提供一定的理论依据。     

雾天气下二次气溶胶均质成核生长过程

二次气溶胶的核化过程涉及分子杂乱运动和碰撞,在分子间的范德华力作用下,大气环境系统中产生分子聚合,形成分子团、胚胎和核.基于此建立二次气溶胶核化和生长模型,并且采用颗粒群平衡模拟和多重蒙特卡洛方法,对雾天气下水汽均质同分子核化及H₂O-H₂SO₄均质异分子核化的过程开展热力学和动力学数值研究. 结果表明:在水汽均质核化过程中,当水汽过饱和比从2增至10时,水汽的成核速率增加约73个数量级,形成临界胚胎所需的分子数降低了97.3%. 而对于H₂O-H₂SO₄均质异分子核化过程,在环境温度271.15 K,气态H₂SO₄分子数浓度为5×107cm-3条件下,当RH(相对湿度)由80%增至100%时,二次气溶胶成核速率增加1.4倍;在气态H₂SO₄分子数浓度较高、RH较大时,核化形成的临界胚胎粒径较小. 经过均质核化生长后,二次气溶胶粒径处于1.5～3.5 nm.      

基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究

航空运输重大突发事件的应急准备与处置存在问题,应急救援效果不甚理想。建立了基于灾害体、受灾体、孕灾环境以及抗灾体四要素的突发事件情景分析模型,并运用动态贝叶斯网络模型,构建了基于关键时间节点的突发事件情景演化模型。基于上述模型,以某航班降落时起落架故障的典型事件为例进行模型构建与分析,分析结果验证该模型运用于民航突发事件情景分析与评估的合理性和可行性。该模型为提高民航突发事件应急准备与处置能力提供了新的思路与方法。     

基于KPCA-LSSVM的矿井工作面动力环境安全评价模型

为实现对采前工作面所处动力环境的客观、准确评价,选取9个直接影响工作面 动力环境的指标因素构建安全评价指标体系,建立基于核主成分分析(KPCA)和最小二乘 支持向量机(LSSVM)的工作面动力环境多因素耦合安全评价智能模型。首先根据KPCA理 论对评价指标施行简约化处理,剔除冗余信息,得出6个简约后的评价指标并输入LSSVM 模型中训练学习,最后得到评价模型。选取从平顶山矿区和大同矿区搜集到的30组工作 面历史数据,按照20∶10的比例对模型进行训练和测试,并将测试结果与其他四种模型 结果进行了对比,结果表明:KPCA方法可有效减少数据信息冗余,利用KPCA优化的 LSSVM模型可准确评价工作面动力环境,误判率为0。     

安全系统思想内涵及其应用研究*——探讨用安全系统思想实现城市安全发展

为了利用安全科学理论解决城市安全中的现实问题,探讨用安全系统思想实现城 市安全这一复杂系统动态安全,基于安全“三元分形双系统”原理,开展了安全系统思 想内涵及其应用研究。基于安全系统思想内涵,通过分析归纳、总结概括的方法,提出 了用安全系统思想实现城市安全发展这种复杂系统动态安全的关键技术和思路。并结合 城市安全的具体特点,提出了安全发展城市建设的基本步骤。结果显示,用安全系统思 想实现复杂系统动态安全,指导城市安全发展是可行的。     

Dynamic simulation of urban water metabolism under water environmental carrying capacity restrictions

A revised concept for urban water metabolism (UWM) is presented in this study to address the inadequacies in current research on UWM and the problems associated with the traditional urban water metabolic process. Feedback loops can be analyzed to increase the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) of the new urban water metabolism system (UWMS) over that of a traditional UWMS. An analysis of the feedback loops of an UWMS was used to construct a system dynamics (SD) model for the system under a WECC restriction. Water metabolic processes were simulated for different scenarios using the Tongzhou District in Beijing as an example. The results for the newly developed UWM case showed that a water environment of Tongzhou District could support a population of 1.1926 × 10⁶, an irrigation area of 375.521 km², a livestock of 0.7732 × 10⁶, and an industrial value added of ¥193.14 × 10⁹ (i.e. about US$28.285× 10⁹) in 2020. A sensitivity analysis showed that the WECC could be improved to some extent by constructing new sewage treatment facilities or by expanding the current sewage treatment facilities, using reclaimed water and improving the water circulation system.     

Chemometrical analysis and quality control of pot water and its sources from Athens,Greece

The present study describes a chemometrical interpretation of a large data set from pot water quality control results. Sixteen chemical and physicochemical parameters constantly checked throughout the year were involved in the classification procedure. The data originate from seventeen sampling stations (pot water sources and pot water purification stations) and were collected in the period January ‐December 1993. Mean values for two months periods were introduced to the chemometrical procedure, so finally a data set 101x16 was formed. Additionally, quality control requirements of the European Union for pot water were added to the set to form an information input matrix of 103x16 elements. Hierarchical and non‐hierarchical clustering procedures were applied in order to reveal the internal structure of the data set. Some interesting conclusions like special water quality of lake Mornos, possibility of quality monitoring with lesser number of components etc., concerning the quality and stability of the pot water sources and quality characteristics of the samples are made.     

Trace metals used as natural markers for discriminating some karstic freshwaters near Trieste (Italy)

Some heavy metals have been determined using voltammetry in freshwaters forming part of a karstic hydrological system (the Timavo River, north of Trieste), during attempts to characterize and discriminate the different sources of the springs. The trace elements can be considered natural markers, with lead appearing to be the most discriminating variable. Non parametric statistics and cluster analysis were used to estimate the significance of the determined parameters with respect to the considered ecosystem.     

Relation between Occupancy and Abundance for a Territorial Species,the California Spotted Owl

Land and resource managers often use detection–nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark‐recapture studies, using detection–nondetection surveys is more cost‐effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection–nondetection data (relative to mark‐recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λ_t) and the resulting realized population change (Δ_t) from both occupancy and mark‐recapture data collected over 18 years (1993–2010). We used multiseason, robust‐design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δ_t = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552–0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates ( = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates ( = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal‐symmetry model for mark‐recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δ_t = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445–1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study ( = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly ( = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection–nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark‐recapture studies. Relación entre Ocupación y Abundancia en una Especie Territorial, el Búho Moteado de California