CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

经济全球化背景下国际可持续发展进程的政治外交效应

本文以发展中国家和发达国家两大集团作为研究的基本单元，对国际可持续发展战略实施中产生的政治外交效应进行了初步分析。试图揭示经济全球化背景下国际可持续发展进程对世界经济社会和政治外交格局带来的影响和挑战，并就发展中国家开展国际可持续发展合作提出了对策建议。     

科技资源开发与区域经济增长研究--以河南为例

本文以河南为例，对科技资源的存量动态变化、配置效率及其对区域经济增长的推动作用进行了定量分析。结果表明。1991．2002年。河南科技资源存在总体上呈持续上升趋势。但是。科技资源的配置效率却呈现出下降趋势。在这个期间。科技资源开发对河南区域经济增长的贡献率为42．1％，达到了全国的平均水平。为了进一步发挥科技资源开发对河南经济增长的推动作用，建议河南继续加快科技资源的积累；重点提高科技资源配置的效率；特别重视大幅度提高对R＆D的投入。     

辽宁省区域经济差异与区域协调发展的初步研究

本文利用辽宁省近年来的统计数据．通过对标准差、变异系数、离差、比率、相对发展速度等参数的计算。分析了辽宁省内各地区间的区域经济差异的总体特征和空间特征。并总结了产生区域差异的三个主要因素。即自然地理环境的差异(客观因素)、区域战略重点的转移(政策因素)以及各地区经济结构的差异。在此基础上．为辽宁省区域协调发展提出了对策与建议。     

资源核算及其纳入国民经济核算体系初步研究

实施资源核算并将其纳入国民经济核算体系是保障和促进国民经济持续、稳定、协调发展的重要措施之一。本文论述了对这一问题初步研究的基本思路、框架、方法,并以1988年我国森林资源状况为研究范例,说明了核算方法的具体应用。     

经济发展成本分析:可持续发展经济学的理论基础

可持续发展战略存在着理论与实践上的严重反差，其主要原因是可持续发展经济缺乏统一的理论基础，本文通过对经济学不同流派关于可持续发展问题研究的评析，认为可持续发展经济学需要建立一个统一的理论基础，并提出经济发展成本分析是可持续发展经济学的理论基础，围绕这一理论基础对可持续发展的概念进行了重新界定，并主张要把制度的激励与约束以及政策的引导纳入可持续发展经济途径研究的视野之中。     

结构风灾经济损失模型在GIS中的应用

在城市抗风防灾研究中，采用GIS技术已成为一种必要的手段，但现有结构风灾经济损失模型参数多，不易采集，造成建立GIS数据库具有一定的困难。因此，简化模型，降低数据采集难度的工作量是十分必要的，本文采用样本计算，制成表格供查询使用，在保证计算精度的前提下，使参数由12个减为2个，大大降低了数据采集和GIS数据库建立的难度。     

Economic Underdevelopment And Sustainable Development In The World:Conditioning Factors,Problems And Opportunities

This paper deals with the various factors that condition underdevelopment in the world. It suggests some alternatives and points out the potential opportunities that both the developed and the underdeveloped world will have in the coming years to change the gloomy prospects that we see today. The present paper outlines the trends in historical priorities in development, changing as they pass from economic development to social development to ecological conservation – the three pillars of Sustainable Development.The paper analyses the importance of geography, a very relevant and often neglected conditioning factor. Also, it analyses the role of socio-economic conditioning factors like political immaturity, demographics, land ownership and external debt.Furthermore, the current opportunities for economic take-off are presented, from cash surpluses to low interest rates, from natural resource management to tourism or migration, from the Information Revolution to liberalisation of agricultural markets. Current obstacles are also analysed. The paper, on the basis of current facts and figures, reaches the conclusion that there is a structural need for sustained development aid for most poor countries, but it must be distributed in a more rational way.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

An Assessment of the Valuation Methods Used to Calculate the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and Sustainable Net Benefit Index (SNBI)

For some time now, ecological economists have been putting forward a ‘threshold hypothesis’ – the notion that when macroeconomic systems expand beyond a certain size, the additional cost of growth exceeds the flow of additional benefits. In order to support their belief, ecological economists have developed a number of similar indexes to measure and compare the benefits and costs of growth (e.g., the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare and the Genuine Progress Indicator). In virtually every instance where an index of this type has been calculated for a particular country, the movement of the index appears to reinforce the existence of the threshold hypothesis. Of late, a number of observers have expressed concerns about whether these alternative indexes reflect concrete reality or the prejudices of ecological economists. In view of these concerns, this paper closely examines the valuation methods used in the calculation the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, the Genuine Progress Indicator, and the Sustainable Net Benefit Index. It is argued that a consistent and more robust set of valuation techniques is required in order for these alternative indexes to gain broad acceptability.*Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

安全投资经济分析与效益评价

安全投资分析的目的是实现必要的安全功能,减少损失,保障企业的生产安全,以便集中投资,获取最大的安全效益。笔者给出了安全效益的新定义,以安全价值和边际效益分析为基础,结合企业安全生产实际,采用FTA法,分析安全所具有的功能与所耗成本的关系。揭示安全投入在生产经营活动中的作用,发现和消除不必要的安全投入,提高安全资金的利用率,以便优选安全措施方案和确定安全投资的方向,选择最优经济投入方案。运用数学方法,分析在多种生产要素限制条件下,安全投资对社会和其他方面影响的最优化问题。采用技术经济方法,评价净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期各指标是否符合设定值,确保安全投资项目的可行性,以利于人们对安全投入的认识,强化企业安全投入工作。