资源约束与经济增长研究

资源约束条件下的经济增长研究对中翻经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文从宏观经济的微观基础分析入手.结合当前中国社会和经济发展的实际,在传统效用函数的基础上,引入了社会地位和资源两个影响因素,通过模型的静态及动态分析,重点研究资源约束对经济系统均衡条件、动态转移的影响.分析结果表明:①当期资源的使用量取决于资源的边际效用、消费的边际效用和时间贴现率的大小.②消费资本比足够大或消费足够多且资本与消费的边际替代率足够小是经济系统存在鞍点均衡的必要条件.③资源消耗足够多时,消费资本比将显著下降.并从资源约束这一角度解释了中国经济增长的投资消费失衡问题.最后从实证角度,利用协整理论验证了资源消耗与消费资本比之间的反向关系.     

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO₂ emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO₂ emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO₂ emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO₂ emission trend from 4^th Five Year Plan through 10^th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO₂ order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO₂ emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.     

市场经济体制下的耕地经营制度：浅析耕地租赁制

本文分析了在市场经济体制下的耕地经营制度和存在的问题，探讨了耕地租赁制度的内容、优点及其对策。     

城市土地价值的演变过程

根据经济增长点（投资点）的区际变化关系，本文分析了城市土地价值的均衡增长与不均衡增长过程，揭示了城市土地价值的演变规律．     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GUIDED WHITEWATER RAFTING: A STUDY OF FIVE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents estimates of the statewide economic impacts of guided whitewater rafting on five rivers in six states: the Nantahala (North Carolina), Gauley (West Virginia), Kennebec (Maine), Middle Fork of the Salmon (Idaho), and Chattooga (Georgia-South Carolina). Except for the Chattooga and Middle Fork, rafting is dependent on upstream dam releases. Guide fees range from about $15 per trip on the Nantahala to over $1,000 on the Middle Fork. Economic impacts per nonresident 1000 visitors increase along with length of the rafting trip and remoteness of the river. Total industrial output per 1000 nonresident visitors ranged from $95,000 on the Nantahala to over $2.5 million on the Middle Fork. However, because of differences in annual visitation levels, total impacts were greatest at the Nantahala, at over $14 million in 1993. Multipliers for all economic measures were relatively consistent over the rivers. Employment multipliers (Type III) ranged from 1.67 to 1.90, income multipliers from 2.0 to 2.4, and industrial output multipliers from 2.1 to 2.5.     

完善经济建设与环境保护综合决策机制

环境保护与经济建设协调发展是实施可持续发展的重要环节。为使环境保护与经济建设协调发展,必须在发展社会经济中,建立并不断完善经济建设与环境保护综合决策机制。     

Economic and employment impacts of offshore wind for Ireland: A value chain analysis

ABSTRACT

The imminent development of a number of offshore wind farms in the Republic of Ireland presents a sizable opportunity to stimulate the Irish economy through the growth of an indigenous and globally competitive offshore wind supply chain. This study uses a value chain analysis to evaluate the economic and employment potential of the offshore wind sector for Ireland. The analysis is based on the expenditure on products and services required to develop an offshore wind farm, the planned capacity of projects in the pipeline, and the ability of Irish companies to supply the sector. Results suggest that by 2030, 2.5–4.5GW of domestic offshore wind development could create between 11,424 and 20,563 supply chain jobs and generate between €763 m and €1.4bn in gross value added. This is the first study to estimate domestic GVA potential for the sector.     

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES USING THE WOLLMAN-BONEM MODELS1

Alternative futures are defined to be mutually consistent alternative combinations of assumed sets of future conditions. Alternative futures are employed in conjunction with the Wollman-Bonem model to project future water use. The model solutions under different alternative futures provide an indication of the direction and relative magnitude of changes in water use, both in quantity and quality, that may result from changes in policy-influenced variables, technology, and other data. The Wollman-Bonem model is employed in this paper as a tool to illustrate the alternative futures concept. The model can best be cast as an economic model. The model solutions are not given as a set of formal projections, but as various possible water-use-over-time curves. This should aid in disspelling the erroneous idea that it is possible to make distant projections of water use as a single curve. Multiple curves suggest that water use is really a function of many variables.     

对地震保险体制改革的探索

从研究地震灾害规律和保险经营特点之间的矛盾入手,叙述地震保险经营的困难,剖析我国现行地震保险体制的缺陷,提出了建立一个新的,相对科学和合理的地震保险体制的若干建议。