人力资本对中国经济增长的影响——基于扩展Solow模型的研究

人力资本综合存量的度量方法有采用产出法分析,也有用投入法来分析;有从理论上推理,也有从经验数据上论证。分析方法有从教育人力资本角度出发,也有从健康人力资本角度出发。而绝大多数文献很少将教育和健康因素同时纳入考虑,仅分析其中一个方面无疑会带来测量的误差。若能同时考虑教育和健康,由新的度量方法产生新数据,由此带来新结论或是能对已有结论作进一步地论证,则是对以往文献研究的一个补充。因此,本文从四个维度建立新型人力资本综合测量体系,通过因子分析法对人力资本的综合水平进行了衡量。其中四个维度主要是指教育、劳动力再培训、身心健康和劳动力合理流动。在此基础上,把人力资本综合存量这一指标引入Solow模型中,构建扩展的Solow模型。利用扩展Solow模型,并结合最新人口统计数据进行实证分析,建立扩展的中国经济增长模型。研究发现人力资本和技术进步正逐渐成为我国经济增长的主要影响因素,劳动力数量对经济增长的影响在逐渐减弱。在我国经济发展的新阶段,如何在控制人口数量和提高经济发展水平方面协调各项工作成为当前的热点问题。为此我们针对教育投入,全民人口素质,中高端人才培养,经济增长方式创新等方面提出一些建议。     

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

ABSTRACT

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.     

Regional Economic Types and Development Strategy of Small Towns in Suburb Beijing

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to classify the regional economic types and development dynamics of small towns in suburb Beijing by applying the classification methods developed by Nelson’s method and Location Quotient method into 183 small towns in Beijing. Four types of small towns are thus identified, including urban agriculture dominated towns, manufacturing dominated towns, service industry dominated towns and comprehensive type towns with balanced economic development. Within the environment of geographical information system, the spatial distribution pattern of four types of small towns with their evolution trend is analyzed. The results indicate that four types of small towns have obvious ‘core-periphery’ spatial structure but with different functional orientations and evolution mechanisms. Based on this, the different development strategies for each type of small towns are summarized, providing a scientific reference for the differentiating planning and development strategies of these small towns.     

长江经济带经济演进的时空分析

长江经济带横跨我国东中西部,与沿海经济带共同构成我国国土开发和经济建设的“T”字形宏观格局,是全国经济联系的中心区域,在我国经济发展中具有极其重要的战略地位。改革开放以来,我国率先实施了沿海经济发展战略,地处我国沿海经济带上的长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海地区得到了超常规发展,带动了全国经济的繁荣,而作为我国另一条发展主轴线的长江沿岸地区,区域发展战略及相关政策的提出则相对较晚。通过对长江经济带的时空分析,选择1992~2010年作为时间序列,以长江经济带作为空间序列,运用定性与定量相结合的手段,在概括长江经济带整体经济发展情况的基础上,分析长江经济带空间分异的变化过程,以期对长江经济带的发展提供可行性的线索和建议     

我国事故指标与经济社会发展指标多元回归分析

以安全生产相对指标工矿商贸十万就业人员生产安全事故死亡率为研究对象,通过文献调研分析,最终从经济发展、经济发展结构、经济活动水平和社会活动水平角度筛选出14个指标为观察对象,采用逐步多元回归分析法筛选出影响我国安全生产的主要经济社会发展指标为：第三产业增加值产值占GDP比重、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数的比重和固定资产投资增长速度,并建立了回归模型。应用弹性系数法对主要影响因素进行重要性排序,并推测工矿商贸就业人员十万人事故死亡率将保持持续下降的趋势。     

乡镇经济生态化与生态环境协调发展研究——以浙江省丽水市为例

丽水市乡镇工业崛起迅速,乡镇经济发展成绩明显,但经济增长方式仍以粗放型为主,环境污染出现了蔓延。技术落后、自主创新能力不足,资金短缺、融资困难,行政生态环境有待完善三方面因素阻碍了丽水市乡镇经济生态化建设。为了促进乡镇经济生态化与生态环境协调发展,针对上述问题提出了以优化产业结构、完善金融服务、加快服务型政府建设为基础,以循环经济、特色经济、生态旅游等生态经济化为发展模式,以生态资源有偿使用、生态环境补偿机制为保障的对策。     

Smart Growth and Sustainable Development: Challenges,solutions and policy directions

In this paper, we focus on the issues related to development densities that emerged from our study of sprawl and development issues in three regions of British Columbia, Canada. We chose to focus on this aspect of the Smart Growth agenda because, while many of its other elements enjoy wide support across social interests, the goal of achieving a higher density urban fabric is highly controversial. We proceeded by collecting data on development densities and 13 indicators of community sustainability in 26 municipalities. The results suggest that the density of communities is associated with efficiencies in infrastructure and with reduced automobile dependence, with the ecological and economic implications which flow from that. However, it does not necessarily correlate with greater affordability of housing or more access to green space. In fact, if anything, we discovered a negative relationship between housing affordability and green space per capita and higher land-use densities. In a second stage of the research, we conducted a qualitative analysis of a subset of six municipalities and identified key policy issues for moving ahead with the Smart Growth agenda. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy issues that emerged from these case studies.     

环境保护项目费用效益评价方法

从费用—效益分析原理出发,结合微观经济理论及环保项目特点,通过分析与归纳建立环保项目费用效益量化评价模型,落实费用效益分析法在环保项目经济评价中的具体应用,达到得以对环保项目作出经济分析评价的目的。     

废显像管玻璃循环经济模式系统分析研究

近年来,我国CRT显像管制造行业迅速发展,但制造显像管所需的大量优质矿石和化工原料的开采和合成过程却破坏了自然生态环境,还造成环境污染.同时,大量被淘汰和不合格的显像管被简单处理,造成巨大的优质资源浪费.采用系统分析的方法,对废显像管玻璃再利用进行环境分析,从而找出适合我国的废显像管玻璃循环经济模式,并使用模糊综合评价对废显像管玻璃循环经济效益的综合评价方式进行了探讨.     

从清洁生产到循环经济

清洁生产和循环经济是20世纪90年代以来在我国引人注目的两项实践。正确认识、积极推进清洁生产和循环经济,对于转变我国经济增长方式与发展模式、促进可持续发展具有重要意义。在将资源环境要素纳入经济系统内部,转变经济增长方式,促进资源环境和经济结合一体化发展模式的概念意义下,本文从宏观历史层面阐述了我国清洁生产和循环经济的发展过程、必然趋势及其长期曲折、交错推进的过程特征。分析了以废物循环作为循环经济的认识和实践误区,提出了以清洁生产为基础推进产业生态化,结合强化末端管制,以及围绕建立“绿色”市场进行制度创新为基本内容的发展我国循环经济的建议。