基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析

本文采用空间计量经济学的方法对我国各省份的经济增长与碳排放之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:我国各省份的碳排放在空间分布上表现出一定的空间正自相关性,碳排放量最高的省份多处于经济发达的沿海地区,如以北京为中心的环渤海地区,以上海为中心的长三角地区和以广东为核心的珠三角地区,而次之的是经济较为发达的地区,如中部的山西、湖北、湖南、江西、安徽和西南地区;我国各省份的碳排放在空间分布上存在一定的空间集群效应,如环渤海地区就表现出高碳排放的空间集群效应,而西部地区的西藏、新疆、甘肃、青海却表现出低碳排放的空间集群效应.经济增长与碳排放呈现出正相关关系,高碳排放的地区多处于经济发达的沿海地区,而低碳排放的地区多处于经济落后的内陆地区;我国目前的经济增长对碳排放的依赖性较强,经济增长对碳排放的弹性系数约为0.8左右,说明在未来的短时间内很难实行低碳经济的发展模式.     

协调中国环境污染与经济增长冲突的路径研究——基于环境退化成本的分析

选取我国1990-2009年相关数据,首先对环境遥化成本进行估计,发现我国环境退化成本呈现不断上升的趋势,而水污染、空气污染是导致环境退化成本产生的主要原因.其次,以环境退化成本作为污染指标,结合环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征,并以能否有效地将污染指标降低到相对较低的水平,作为政策路径选择的标准,分析协调我国环境污染与经济增长冲突的路径.实证研究结果表明:在不考虑政策因素的影响下,我国目前国内生产总值水平仍处在环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的左端,经济持续增长有可能导致环境状况进一步恶化;多项环境治理政策的同步实施,致使个别政策出现低效率甚至是无效率;在当前产出水平条件下,既要保证经济平稳增长,又要降低环境退化成本,政策路径的选择首先应注重产业结构的调整,适当保持第二产业比重,但在发展第三产业的过程中,应加大对污染企业的监管与治理,其次是调整国际贸易进出口比例,积极扩大出口,而采用吸引外商直接投资与加大污染治理投资等政策在我国现阶段均不能有效降低环境退化成本.     

贵州省经济弱县的确定及其特征分析

应用层次分析法,测算出贵州每个年度全部县域的经济社会发展综合实力排序值及其排序位次。由此得出排在前列的一部分县域,列为该年度经济强县,排在末尾的另一部分县域,列为经济弱县。贵州经济弱县一般特征是:人均GDP较低;农村贫困面较大;边际地理区位;属于民族自治的经济弱县较多;山地面积较广。当前分布格局为:东部经济弱县较多,西部较少。相对集中的经济弱县,形成4个片区。从每个片区的自然条件出发,论述维护生态环境与发展经济的有利和不利因素,揭示片区差异,提出必须解决的问题。     

“农-工复合型”虚拟生态产业园规划研究

生态产业园是循环经济在产业集中区的具体体现,随着传统产业园区建设及实践过程中出现的运行效率及稳定性问题,虚拟产业园及其运行模式已成为国内外学者关注的重点。本文以郑州国家经济技术开发区食品加工行业的生态链建设为例,探讨了农-工复合型虚拟园区的模式,即突破传统产业限值,建立以食品加工为核心,带动第一产业及第三产业共同发展的一种产业网络模式。本文最后对建立这种新型产业园区所面临的生态设计及体制转型和利益分配等问题进行了探讨。     

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China’s economy:in a short-term,China’s GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.     

三峡库区区域经济形势及其发展战略探讨

长江三峡工程是举世瞩目的大型水利水电工程,库区的经济发展问题与相关生态环境问题同样引人关注。三峡库区经济的发展不仅有利于整个长江上游地区的全面发展,而且关系到库区百万移民的生计和社会稳定的大局。基于区域经济理论,运用SWOT方法对三峡库区经济发展的现状进行了分析评价。通过库区经济发展优势、劣势、机遇和挑战因素的客观分析,结果发现,特色生态农业、沿江旅游、物流业将成为库区产业的优先发展方向,与民生相关的移民安稳致富、城乡统筹发展等政策则成为库区经济战略的重要选择。旨在进一步整合库区资源、优化产业结构、提高经济增长质量、提升整体经济实力,为库区制定具针对性的区域经济发展战略提供有益参考。
     

重庆市大气污染对锌材料腐蚀的经济损失分析

简要介绍了材料大气腐蚀经济损失的估算方法,并以2002年为基准年,选择了重庆市主城中心的6个功能区作为代表性区域,运用腐蚀破坏剂量响应函数和使用寿命计算公式对锌材料的腐蚀经济损失进行了定量估算.结果表明,由大气污染腐蚀破坏锌材料造成的年直接经济损失约为4061.7万元,约为同期GDP的0.1%.其中,干沉降对经济损失总量的贡献率在71%～99%之间,均值为92%.     

企业安全投资背后的利益博弈探讨

利用职业安全卫生费用模型结合博弈论原理,对企业安全投资背后的利益冲突与协调问题进行了浅析.研究表明:企业凭借资本优势在与政府和劳动者的利益博弈中为了寻求经济利益最大化减少安全投资,使企业安全度大大降低,导致事故频发是政府、企业和劳动者之间利益博弈的结果.此外,劳动者的合法权益得不到保护,造成其在利益博弈中处于弱势地位是造成安全生产现状的重要原因之一.     

Testing the feasibility of a hypothetical whaling‐conservation permit market in Norway

A cap‐and‐trade system for managing whale harvests represents a potentially useful approach to resolve the current gridlock in international whale management. The establishment of whale permit markets, open to both whalers and conservationists, could reveal the strength of conservation demand, about which little is known. This lack of knowledge makes it difficult to predict the outcome of a hypothetical whale permit market. We developed a bioeconomic model to evaluate the influence of economic uncertainty about demand for whale conservation or harvest. We used simulations over a wide range of parameterizations of whaling and conservation demands to examine the potential ecological consequences of the establishment of a whale permit market in Norwegian waters under bounded (but substantial) economic uncertainty. Uncertainty variables were slope of whaling and conservation demand, participation level of conservationists and their willingness to pay for whale conservation, and functional forms of demand, including linear, quadratic, and log‐linear forms. A whale‐conservation market had the potential to yield a wide range of conservation and harvest outcomes, the most likely outcomes were those in which conservationists bought all whale permits.     

Paradigms for parasite conservation

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite‐inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid‐20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host‐density threshold and cost‐benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host–parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future.