农地分配制度不是农地冲突的根本原因——基于湖北和湖南农村问卷调查的实证分析

农地冲突是当前我国农村经济发展和城镇化进程中的普遍问题,在—些地方相当突出,严重影响了农村的社会稳定和经济发展,探讨农地冲突的原因有助于化解农村矛盾及构建和谐繁荣的农村社区。本文利用笔者在湖北和湖南两省收集到的数据,应用Logit概率模型实证分析了农地分配制度、非农就业收入及其差距和人力资本等可能引起农地冲突的因素的影响。与通常的看法不同,本文并没有发现农地分配制度是农地冲突的显著诱因,原因可能在于我国的农地在改革初期是按人口或劳动力平均分配的,其后的调整大多也是经农民自主协商按照市场规则完成的,并没有引起农民的明显不满,因而也就没有成为农地冲突的诱因。本文的研究结果还表明,非农就业收入、非农就业收入差距和家庭人力资本对农地冲突的影响显著,非农就业收入越低,其差距越小,家庭人力资本越多,农地冲突发生的概率越大,是农地冲突的主要诱因。这表明非农就业收入越少,农民通过非农就业增加家庭收入的隧道效应越弱,对农业收入的依赖性越大,农地就越重要,农地冲突越容易发生;家庭男性成员越多,家庭社会地位越高,在打架斗殴和上访诉讼中越占优势,农地冲突也越容易爆发。因此,为了减少农地冲突,应采取切实措施,促进农村劳动力向非农部门转移,加强农村法制建设,限制丛林行为。     

浅谈高等职业教育

高职院校应以就业为导向,以为社会培养技术应用型人才为目标办好高等职业教育。要转变办学思想,树立为社会经济发展培养实用技术型人才的观念,深入社会调查,合理设置专业,变革现有课程、教材;培养“双师型”教师,提高高职院校的教学质量,突出实践能力的培养,以确保学生毕业后能够顺利走向工作岗位,提高学生就业率。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT: INDIA1

ABSTRACT India's multidimensional water development programs have contributed significantly to the promotion of the country's economic growth. Rapid growth of irrigation has substantially increased agricultural production. Hydro power generation has doubled during the last two decades, and this has accelerated industrialization and extended rural electrification. Minor irrigation has taken on a new importance in the Fourth Five Year Plan, signifying a departure from the earlier Plans. “Green Revolution” owes a large measure of its success to the availability of assured water supplies. Water development projects have also generated tremendous employment opportunities. Despite its pronounced impact on the economy, India's water planning strategy has some glaring weaknesses: the failure to incorporate “indirect benefits” in cost-benefit calculations; the under-utilization of water potential; and, the progressive increase in the cost of irrigating an acre of land. The prevailing institutional structure in India constitutes a major deterrent to the diffusion of the benefits of water development. There are stubborn psychological factors which render the adoption of innovative irrigation practices difficult. There is thus an overwhelming need to revamp India's institutional framework. On balance, however, water development in India has made its impact felt on India's myriads of villages. And from the arid “dust bowls” of India new life has emerged.     

基于经济和环境资源多目标的适度人口容量预测——以上海市闵行区为例

人口容量预测成为城市规划的重要依据和重要内容。本文将基于经济和资源环境这一多目标体系,通过经济增长与就业率间的一般规律对关乎人口经济生存的就业岗位预测,以及对基于满足区域环境生态效应的绿地、水面积限制因子的估算,给出城市适度人口的新算法。以上海市闵行区为例,计算结果表明：闵行区2020年经济人口容量介于210万与250万之间,而基于满足生态效应的土地资源的环境人口容量在180万到230万之间。基于经济与环境资源的综合适度人口容量范围为196～232万。     

基于GO法的LNG接收站气化外输系统可靠性分析

为保障液化天然气(LNG)接收站工艺系统生产的安全,基于GO法原理,对某接收站气化外输系统进行可靠性分析。在对系统工艺流程分析的基础上建立GO图,并采用概率公式算法分别对该系统进行可靠性定性与定量分析。结果表明:GO图简单实用,能够直观准确地表征系统工艺流程。GO运算得出气化外输系统的平均工作概率为0.977 814,平均维修时间为58 h,系统可连续稳定运行107天以上。由于数据是基于保守原则确定基本事件的,因此,计算所得可靠性结果可以作为气化外输系统安全可靠性的下限。     

Selecting suitable sites for animal waste application using a raster GIS

Rapid growth of intensive animal industries in southeast Queensland, Australia, has led to large volumes of animal waste production, which posses serious environmental problems in the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). This study presents a method of selecting sites for the safe application of animal waste as fertiliser to agricultural land. A site suitability map for the Westbrook subcatchment within the MDB was created using a geographic information system (GIS)-based weighted linear combination (WLC) model. The factors affecting the suitability of a site for animal waste application were selected, and digital data sets derived from up to 1:50,000 scale maps were acquired. After initial preprocessing, digital data sets were clipped to the size of the delineated subcatchment boundary producing input factors. These input factors were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) that employed an objectives-oriented comparison (OOC) technique to formulate the pairwise comparison matrix. The OOC technique, which is capable of deriving factor weight independently, formulated the weight derivation process by making it more logical and systematic. The factor attributes were classified into multiple classes and weighted using the AHP. The effects of the number of input factors and factor weighting on the areal extent and the degree of site suitability were examined. Due to the presence of large nonagricultural and residential areas in the subcatchment, only 16% of the area was found suitable for animal waste application. The areal extent resulting from this site suitability assessment was found to be dependent on the areal constraints imposed on each input factor, while the degree of suitability was principally a function of the weight distribution between the factors.     

山东省就业结构转换与城市化进程的关联分析

城市化的根本动力在于就业人口能否实现由第一产业向第二、三产业的转换,其中转换的快慢是影响城市化进程的重要因素.通过考察1980～2002年山东省就业结构转换过程与城市化进程的相关关系发现,就业人口在三次产业之间的转换对山东省城市化进程具有一定的阻碍作用,并且具有明显的空间差异.第三产业吸纳就业人口的能力对促进城市化进程是一种不可替代的重要力量.     

产品导向的环境政策研究进展

产品在整个生命周期都可能对环境造成不同程度的不利影响,因此传统的"末端处理"或"中端处理"的环境产品政策已经不能满足环境需要,产品导向的环境产品政策正是基于这种考虑产生的。通过介绍欧盟几个国家的产品导向的环境产品政策,论述了产品导向的环境产品政策的基本理论及研究进展。     

面向对象思想在民用机场危险源辨识中的应用

运用现代安全科学的观点,提出基于认知程度的危险源分类方法,即未知危险源、已知有效管控危险源、已知未有效管控危险源。针对民用机场风险管理过程中,辨识的方法标准不统一、辨识对象的主体单一、辨识的结果口径内容泛失科学性等问题,借鉴面向对象思想的分析思路,试图解决危险源辨识工作不易把握的问题,并在具体实现上进行相应的论述,完成面向对象的危险源辨识模板类的构建。实证结果,验证了面向对象思路的可行性,为民用机场的安全风险管理工作提供了一种新方法。