港口规划环境影响评价指标体系的研究

介绍了规划环境影响评价的发展及应用,根据规划环境影响评价及港口规划的特点,对港口规划环境影响评价的内容、技术路线和指标体系的建立进行了研究,并提出港口规划的环境目标和评价指标,为我国港口规划环境影响评价技术的完善提供借鉴。     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

气候变化主要因子对马铃薯生物量积累及产量和品质的影响

利用新型开顶式气室(OTC)开展CO2浓度升高和大气增温试验,分别为模拟增温2.0℃,模拟增温2.0℃且CO2浓度增加到650μmol·mol-1,对照CO2浓度约410μmol·mol-1,对马铃薯叶片、叶柄和茎等地上生物量、根和块茎等地下生物量积累过程及其特征参数的协同影响研究,分析气候变化对马铃薯产量形成和品质的...     

A risk reduction approach for academic research labs: A case study on naphthenic corrosion

Academic research and development (R&D) labs are a significant part of academic life. But there can be physical, environmental, and experiment quality risks associated to this activity. Academic labs can present specific experiments, which have associated risks for researchers. Academic labs are also characterized by a high turnover of students and many of them are not fully aware of the level of physical and environmental risks of their activity. Accidents in academic labs with injuries and loss of life are facts that have to be tackled through risk management approaches. The objective of this paper is to present an integrated management approach, tackling risk management and analysis methods. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) and PFMEA (Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) enabled, respectively, the analysis of safety and environmental risks. By quantifying the level of risk according to the type of experiment and the research context, it is possible to provide safety to the system. The resulting Digital Poka-Yoke – a mistake-proofing approach – has brought about the desired quality of results in experiments. The proposed approach was validated through a case study monitoring naphthenic corrosion experiments conducted by the Lab of Surface Electrochemistry and Corrosion (LSEC) at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR). As a consequence, this approach is currently in use at this lab.     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

安全风险分级防控在油气开发领域的探索与应用

为推动油气开发领域安全风险分级防控有效落地,提高风险预控能力,本文基于风险防控现状评估结果,探索性地研究安全风险分级防控思路,构建了油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型,提出了逆向与正向危害因素识别方法,明确了风险评价关键隐性过程原则,构建了风险-后果-能资分级防控决断模型。选取典型试点单位进行实践,结果证明,油气开发领域安全风险分级防控体系推进模型是科学合理的,其他领域也可借鉴该模型开展安全风险分级防控工作。     

基于第二次全国污染源普查质量保证的思考及体系建设初探

通过对清查数据的结果分析,确定第二次全国污染源入户普查的对象,基于企业填报、现场入户、资料收集审核、数据核查等具体工作的实施与开展,思考和归总普查工作中影响数据质量的现实问题和难点,初步构建污染源普查质量保证体系,以期为全国污染源普查数据质量保证提供有益参考。     

煤对CO2，N2和CH4的吸附速率经验公式与异同性研究*

为了解决吸附速率拟合公式缺乏而解吸经验公式众多的问题,通过替换解吸参数、定性和对比分析各经验公式对煤吸附CO₂,N₂,CH₄吸附速率的适用性,选取4种不同煤质的煤样在0.5,1.0和2.0 MPa下进行定温吸附实验,分析压力和煤质对吸附速率的影响规律。研究结果表明:时间函数式对3种气体在不同压力和煤质下的吸附速率拟合效果最佳;压力和煤质对3种气体吸附速率的影响既存在共性又具有差异性,气体吸附速率与压力符合指数函数关系,与挥发分呈现出二次函数关系,并且压力升高会导致最低吸附速率趋向于较高变质程度煤样;CH₄和N₂的吸附速率随压力升高而升高,而CO₂的吸附速率因煤样而不同,且在同压下,不同气体的最高和最低吸附速率煤样的变质程度也不同。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线,以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例,提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案,利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟,并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故,会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏;丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时,保护措施不足;隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙,隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围,在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙,在极度危险情况下,需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率,采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析,构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型,并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系,将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度,计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析,能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考,有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。