2003年北京地区年雨量的预测

通过对北京地区1870年以来年雨量与太阳活动和厄尔尼诺年关系的处理分析,给出了一种预测北京地区年雨量的数学模型,在前5年预测的基础上,给出2003年北京地区年雨量的预测值为450±50mm。     

Physiological Rearrangements in the Progeny of White Rats in the Zone of the Chernobyl Accident

Studies on six generations of white rats kept at the experimental station in Chernobyl showed that the dynamics of hormonal rearrangements and endocrine responses evoked by additional stress (hypokinesia) were generation- and sex-dependent. The male rats of the first five generations were characterized by hypercorticoidism, early involutional shifts, and decreased reactivity in response to hypokinesia. By the sixth and seventh generations, the hormonal profiles shifted toward an increase in the background level of sex hormones and their role in the response to hypokinesia. In female rats, the hormonal indices and reactivity changed less significantly.     

城市电磁波辐射污染监测及防护

电磁波辐射不仅对通信、无线电管理、电器设备的正常工作有许多干扰,而且对生物体也有严重的影响。为了更有效地避免因射频、微波等高频电磁场对城市居民身心健康的危害,进行城市电磁波辐射水平的监测与评价,并为此采取相应的防护措施是十分必要的。在1990年,用我国研制的电磁环境辐射监测仪对厦门、漳州两城市的电磁波辐射污染进行了测试和评价,为我国各大中城市进行电磁波辐射污染测试和评估提供了切实可行的方法。     

Looking beyond incentives: the role of champions in the social acceptance of residential solar energy in regional Australian communities

Research into renewable energy adoption is increasingly identifying that the successful implementation of renewable energy projects is influenced by a combination of market, community and socio-political acceptance of renewable energy technology. This research uses case studies in two regional Australian communities to examine the social acceptance of residential solar energy, in particular under the influence of financial incentives and social interactions. Fifty-five semi-structured interviews with members of the local community, industry and government were undertaken between May and October 2015. Respondents were asked about their perceptions and knowledge of solar energy and incentives to support its adoption, and their interactions with actors important in the diffusion process. Responses indicated that financial incentives motivated solar adoption; however, social interactions in the communities also contributed to decision-making. In one case study, a local “solar champion” built a private solar farm to demonstrate the technical feasibility of solar, assisted community members with physically installing their own systems and helped community members to maximise the financial benefits of their solar installations. This solar champion contributed to this community having an earlier and more rapid rate of small-scale solar adoption compared with the second case study community. The second case study community included two individuals interested in promoting solar energy; however, they were less integrated with the community’s process of adopting solar, resulting in community members experiencing substandard installations and consequent distrust of the solar industry. This research concludes that local context influences solar adoption through complex interactions among market, community and socio-political acceptance.     

A simple method for partitioning total solar radiation into diffuse/direct components in the United States

Solar radiation is a major sustainable and clean energy resource, and use of solar radiation is expected to increase. The utilization efficiency of solar energy varies with the relative proportions of the direct and diffuse components that compose total solar radiation and with the slope and aspect of the irradiated surface. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple method for estimating diffuse and direct solar radiation at sites with observation of only total solar radiation. An existing model for estimating diffuse radiation, i.e., a linear relationship between the diffuse fraction (the ratio of diffuse radiation to total solar radiation) and the clearness index (the ratio of total solar radiation to extraterrestrial radiation), is applied to 7 sites across the continental United States with observations of diffuse and total radiation. The linear model shows good monthly performance. The model parameters (slope and interception) show a strong seasonal pattern that exhibits small variation across the 7 sites; therefore, the average values of the two monthly parameters may be used for estimating diffuse radiation for other locations with observations of total radiation.     

Prediction of diffuse solar radiation using satellite data

In the project of the solar systems, the values of the solar radiation of a region must be known. The global solar radiation measurements are performed by the Turkish Meteorological Service in Turkey, while the diffuse solar radiation measurements are unavailable. In this study, some new models for predicting the monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Erzincan, Turkey are developed using satellite data. The evaluation of the models is carried out with the statistical analysis methods of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r). The results are proved that the correlation equations obtained in here can be used to forecast diffuse solar radiation reasonably well.     

Comparative assessment of solar photovoltaic panels based on metal-derived hazardous waste,resource depletion,and toxicity potentials

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cells are used to resolve energy security and climate change problems. Although PV panels have long physical lifetimes, they would be eventually replaced by new ones with higher energy efficiency and then changed to waste. Depending on the types of PV cells, waste PV panels have different environmental impact potentials due to different contents of substances. This study assesses and compares hazardous waste, resource depletion, and toxicity potentials from metals in three types of PV modules (i.e., polycrystalline silicon (Si), amorphous Si, and CIGS (copper/indium/gallium/di-selenite) PVs) on per-watt electricity generation basis. Hazardous waste potentials are examined by using metal leachability tests, and resource depletion and toxicity potentials are evaluated by using life cycle impact assessment methods. The polycrystalline Si and CIGS PVs have hazardous waste potentials due to lead (Pb) and cadmium/selenium, respectively, whereas the amorphous Si PV does not. The polycrystalline Si PV has the highest resource depletion potential due primarily to silver; the CIGS PV has the next highest due primarily to selenium; and the amorphous Si PV had the lowest, which is derived primarily from tin and copper. For toxicity potentials, overall the amorphous Si PV had lower potentials, derived primarily from barium/copper/nickel/zinc, than the polycrystalline Si and CIGS PVs of which the toxicity potentials were primarily form copper/lead/nickel/silver and copper/mercury/molybdenum/nickel/silver, respectively. Therefore, waste polycrystalline Si and CIGS PV panels should be recycled and managed with priority, and PV technology development needs to be directed to amorphous Si PV from the material perspective.     

花岗石辐射风险评价方法研究

花岗石是重要的建筑材料,但大部分地区的花岗石辐射比较严重,并且很难准确直观地评估出危害风险的高低。通过对花岗石辐射风险评价方法的探讨,采用环境风险评估作为切入点,以区域风险的高低作为评估标准,判断任何个体进入这个区域是否为高风险区域,将环境的辐射程度与人员暴露在危险环境中的频繁程度联系在一起,形成了一套简单易行的半定量评价方法,并作实证分析,为政府的管理或居民的家庭装饰选择提供了科学的依据。     

电子辐照Kapton/Al薄膜力学性能退化规律与机理研究

目的为航天器用Kapton/Al薄膜材料的选用提供数据支撑和高性能Kapton/Al薄膜材料的研制提供理论支持。方法用综合辐照试验装置对Kapton/Al薄膜材料进行电子辐照,用拉力试验机对Kapton/Al薄膜材料开展力学性能拉伸试验,用XPS对其成分和微观结构进行测试分析。结果Kapton/Al薄膜材料的抗拉强度和断裂伸长率随着拉伸速度的增加而降低,随着电子辐照注量的增加呈指数减小,在电子辐照下,薄膜材料分子键发生断裂和交联,C—CO和C—N键断裂发生脱氧和脱氮反应,C—H基团相对含量增大。结论电子辐照将造成Kapton/Al薄膜材料力学性能降低,薄膜材料分子价健的断裂和交联是薄膜力学性能降低的主要原因。