Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Application of statistical modeling to optimize a coastal water quality monitoring program

The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects, corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately $183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

室内空气污染预测方法的实证研究

在大型(30m3)、小型(1m3)环境箱实验获得数据的基础上构建释放模型,并将模拟结果和现场监测得到的浓度水平进行对比,对开发的室内空气污染预测方法进行了实证研究.以一新装修房间为例,分别利用大型和小型环境箱实验,研究了复杂整装材料和简单层状材料的释放规律,建立了相应材料的污染物释放模型;依据单元内物质守恒理论和污染物充分混合的假设将释放模型组合,建立了室内空气污染预测方法,并预测了该房间甲醛和TVOC(total volatile organic compounds)浓度的变化过程.在考虑了0.03ACH(air change per hour)的换气率之后,模型预测与现场监测的污染物浓度变化趋势基本吻合,甲醛和TVOC污染预测误差(正则化标准差)分别为2.8%和1.6%.模型分析表明,各污染源对于甲醛污染的贡献,家具＞涂料＞地板;对于TVOC污染的贡献,涂料＞地板＞家具.结论表明,该预测方法可以真实反映现场污染物浓度变化趋势,可以用来分析各污染源对于整体污染的贡献、指导装修材料的选择和作为室内污染评估和控制的有效工具.     

COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

长三角典型村域次降雨条件下氮素非点源输出特征

研究长三角典型都市农业村镇不同土地利用下的氮素非点源输出特征,以期为治理该区域的面源污染提供科学依据.通过典型次降雨径流事件中氮形态和输出负荷变化的研究发现:监测点总氮(TN)的事件平均浓度(EMC)为20.01～22.83mg/L,其中溶解态氮(DN)占TN的比例最大;研究区非点源氮流失以溶解态为主,DN又以溶解态有机氮(DON)为主.耦合各形态氮浓度与径流量特征,发现非点源氮素输出呈现2个峰值,且出现在径流峰值之前4～55min;TN、DN和硝态氮(NO3--N)浓度随降雨时间增加呈现减少趋势;氮素负荷受其浓度和径流量的共同作用,基本上呈现与氮素浓度相同的变化特征,但起伏变化较为平缓.氮素污染负荷积累曲线分析表明,村域地表径流各形态氮素均存在初期冲刷效应.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.