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61.
Mackenzie BR Meier HE Lindegren M Neuenfeldt S Eero M Blenckner T Tomczak MT Niiranen S 《Ambio》2012,41(6):626-636
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties. 相似文献
62.
Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé María Espinosa-Goded Pierre Dupraz 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2010,53(7):891-905
Agri-environmental schemes (AES) are the main policy instrument currently available in the EU to promote environmentally-friendly farming practices. However, the rate of adoption of these measures is still relatively low in southern Europe, and understanding how these rates can be increased is still an open issue. The goal of this paper is to increase that understanding by testing whether the factors which determine AES sign-up decisions are influenced by the intensity of change in farming practices that are brought about by adopting the scheme. A micro-economic model reflecting farmer AES sign-up decisions is proposed and applied to two schemes in Spain respectively requiring major or minor intensity of change in practices by surveying farmers eligible for both schemes. The results show that farm structural factors play a role when major practice change is required by the scheme, yet when dealing with minor change, individual farmer characteristics play a more determining role. Social capital and farmer attitude are important factors in both the AES surveyed. Therefore, it may be concluded that improving agronomic design would be an important tool to improve farmer participation in AES where major change is involved, whereas improved targeting and extension would help uptake for AES involving a lesser degree of change. 相似文献
63.
Richard J. Brazee 《中国人口.资源与环境(英文版)》2010,8(3)
Chinese forest resources have become very scarce in the face of rapid economic growth demand, while the reform of collective forest right system is in full swing across the country. It will directly affect the regeneration level of forest resources and the diverse ecological value functions. In this article, the mainstream model paradigm of forest economics, that is, the basic framework of the Faustmann model and its evolution process are made in a more detailed explanation, especially the extended model in... 相似文献
64.
There is the need to integrate existing toxicity data in a coherent framework for extending their domain of applicability as well as their extrapolation potential. This integration would also reduce time and cost-consuming aspects of these tests and reduce animal usage. In this work, based on data extracted from literature, we have assessed the advantages that a dynamic biology-toxicant fate coupled model for Daphnia magna could provide when assessing toxicity data, in particular, the possibility to obtain from short-term (acute) toxicity test long-term (chronic) toxicity values taking into account the inherent variability of D. magna populations and the multiple sources of data. The results show that this approach overcomes some of the limitations of existing toxicity tests and that the prediction errors are considerably reduced when compared with the factor from 2 to 5 obtained using acute-to-chronic ratios. 相似文献
65.
Information on carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is essential for appropriate human risk assessment of feed contaminants. The carry-over of potentially hazardous persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from feed to fillet was assessed in consumption sized Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Relative carry-over (defined as the fraction of a certain dietary POP retained in the fillet) was assessed in a controlled feeding trial, which provided fillet retention of dietary organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), dioxins (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and brominated flame retardants (BFRs). Highest retention was found for OCPs, BFRs and PCBs (31-58%), and the lowest retentions were observed for PCDD/Fs congeners (10-34%). National monitoring data on commercial fish feed and farmed Atlantic salmon on the Norwegian market were used to provide commercially relevant feed-to-fillet transfer factors (calculated as fillet POP level divided by feed POP level), which ranged from 0.4 to 0.5, which is a factor 5-10 times higher than reported for terrestrial meat products. For the OCP with one of the highest relative carry-over, toxaphene, uptake and elimination kinetics were established. Model simulations that are based on the uptake and elimination kinetics gave predicted levels that were in agreement with the measured values. Application of the model to the current EU upper limit for toxaphene in feed (50 μg kg−1) gave maximum fillet levels of 22 μg kg−1, which exceeds the estimated permissible level (21 μg kg−1) for toxaphene in fish food samples in Norway. 相似文献
66.
针对突发性水污染事件的突发性、复杂性与潜在的次生衍生危害等特点,设计并开发了面向突发性水污染事件的三维可视化系统。对建设三维可视化系统的需求进行了分析,提出了系统的四层体系结构,基于三维地理信息系统World Wind组件,采用三维可视化环境建模、海量数据缓存机制以及基础地理信息集成等信息技术,开发了系统的基本应用与高级应用,将系统应用到2005年发生在松花江流域的突发性水污染事件中。实例表明:所设计的三维可视化系统具有集成性、可扩展性和较好三维表现力等特点,支持海量数据与复杂应用的集成与三维展示,为突发性水污染事件的空间模拟和决策支持提供支撑。 相似文献
67.
通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16~18 a,7~8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。 相似文献
68.
Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration. 相似文献
69.
Beverly Z.L. Oh Ana M.M. Sequeira Mark G. Meekan Jonathan L.W. Ruppert Jessica J. Meeuwig 《Conservation biology》2017,31(3):635-645
Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km2 of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs. 相似文献
70.
Gerald Kirchner Friederike Strebl Peter Bossew Sabine Ehlken Martin H. Gerzabek 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2009
Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments. 相似文献