基于RS和GIS的赤水河流域植被覆盖度与各地形因子的相关强度研究

以赤水河流域为研究区域,综合运用遥感和GIS技术,用TM遥感影像反演植被覆盖度,用数字高程模型(DEM)提取地形因子并进行子流域的划分与构建;首先借助空间叠加分析,研究了区内植被覆盖度分别随高程、坡度及坡向变化的规律;然后从数理统计的角度分析区内不同植被覆盖度与地形等级因子的相关性,并就相关强度进行排序。研究表明:1、在赤水河流域,中度以上植被覆盖度与坡度、高程与之间,并不是单一的正比关系,其随坡度和高程的增加而先增加后减小,存在着临界坡度区间和临界高程区间。2、不同植被覆盖度下各地形因子的影响程度明显不同。对各级植被覆盖,坡度和坡向对其的影响都明显高于高程;中度植被覆盖受坡向影响较为显著,但随着植被覆盖度的增高坡度的影响越来越显著。该研究对喀斯特区域生态环境的评价和改良具有重要参考价值,同时也为喀斯特地区的植被保护和石漠化防治提供决策依据。     

国内石油行业上游污染物排放统计若干问题探讨

根据规定,石油行业上游要定期报告污染物的排放数据。与排放有关的生产活动高度分散,规模和性质差异很大,使统计工作存在一定的复杂性。文章就统计范围和统计分析方面存在的问题进行初步探讨,并提出建议。对于非常规形态的排放、可"忽略"的排放,应界定相应的规则和计算方法。适当增加统计的分类,以充分满足环境管理的需求。在报告数据前,要采用多种方法进行验证。     

Nutrient Sources and Transport in the Missouri River Basin,with Emphasis on the Effects of Irrigation and Reservoirs1

Brown, Juliane B., Lori A. Sprague, and Jean A. Dupree, 2011. Nutrient Sources and Transport in the Missouri River Basin, With Emphasis on the Effects of Irrigation and Reservoirs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1034‐1060. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00584.x Abstract: SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were used to relate instream nutrient loads to sources and factors influencing the transport of nutrients in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural inputs from fertilizer and manure were the largest nutrient sources throughout a large part of the basin, although atmospheric and urban inputs were important sources in some areas. Sediment mobilized from stream channels was a source of phosphorus in medium and larger streams. Irrigation on agricultural land was estimated to decrease the nitrogen load reaching the Mississippi River by as much as 17%, likely as a result of increased anoxia and denitrification in the soil zone. Approximately 16% of the nitrogen load and 33% of the phosphorus load that would have otherwise reached the Mississippi River was retained in reservoirs and lakes throughout the basin. Nearly half of the total attenuation occurred in the eight largest water bodies. Unlike the other major tributary basins, nearly the entire instream nutrient load leaving the outlet of the Platte and Kansas River subbasins reached the Mississippi River. Most of the larger reservoirs and lakes in the Platte River subbasin are upstream of the major sources, whereas in the Kansas River subbasin, most of the source inputs are in the southeast part of the subbasin where characteristics of the area and proximity to the Missouri River facilitate delivery of nutrients to the Mississippi River.     

西部地级市环境监测站转型期视野中的环境统计组织体系建设探讨

通过总结西部某地级市“十一五”环境统计组织体系建设中存在的问题，从地级市环境监测站历史性转型期视野出发，提出地级市的环境统计组织建设应该依托于环境监测站的建设与发展，全力推进环境统计工作和环境监测的协同发展。     

嘉陵江流域洪水区域分析

嘉陵江流域位于长江上游 ,是长江流域面积最大的支流 ,也是长江洪水的主要来源之一。用一种新的洪水区域分析方法———标度分析法对年最大洪峰流量区域变化的性质进行了研究。标度分析法的基本思想是认为在具有相似的地理、地质和气候条件的区域内洪水的空间变化满足标度不变性 ,将不同的地区划分成不同的区域 ,在同一子区域内用标度变换来对洪水资料进行处理 ,这种思想具有现实的普遍意义。对嘉陵江流域洪水资料研究的结果表明标度不变性在一定程度上确实存在 ,且表现出多标度性 ,也就是说不同频率 p下的标度指数θ(p)有不同的值。因此用标度分析法进行洪水区域分析是可行的。为了实际应用 ,最后还计算了嘉陵江流域不同频率p的标度指数θ(p)值 ,由这些结果可以实现由有资料地区的洪水资料对无资料地区洪水进行粗估     

ESTIMATING AQUIFER PARAMETERS FROM A HORIZONTAL WELL PUMPING TEST IN AN UNCONFINED AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: A pumping test on a phreatic glacial till aquifer was performed near Ames, Iowa, in November 1990. The head in a horizontal well was pumped down rapidly and then held constant for the duration of the 30-hour test. Throughout the test, the flow rate at the pumped well and the head at an adjacent vertical observation well were recorded. The pumping test data were used to determine the hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of the aquifer. The results indicate a hydraulic conductivity of 2.23 × 10^?5 cm/s and a representative specific yield of 0.03. Hydraulic conductivity was calculated by a simple integration of Darcy's Law after extrapolating the data to steady state. Specific yield was determined by use of several methods from the literature and a new method proposed by the author. The results show that specific yield increases with time, and that each method is within an order of magnitude of the others.     

Large Biases in Regression‐Based Constituent Flux Estimates: Causes and Diagnostic Tools

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression‐based models can produce severely biased estimates of long‐term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven‐parameter model, LOADEST five‐parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST‐7 and LOADEST‐5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.     

Refuge‐Effect Hypothesis and the Demise of the Dodo

The Dodo was last sighted on the inshore island of Ile d'Ambre in 1662, nearly 25 years after the previous sighting on the mainland of Mauritius. It has been suggested that its survival on the inshore island is representative of the refuge effect. Understanding what constitutes significant persistence is fundamental to conservation. I tested the refuge‐effect hypothesis for the persistence of the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus) on an inshore island beyond that of the mainland population. For a location to be considered a refuge, most current definitions suggest that both spatial and temporal isolation from the cause of disturbance are required. These results suggest the island was not a refuge for the Dodo because the sighting in 1662 was not temporally isolated from that of the mainland sightings. Furthermore, with only approximately 350 m separating Ile d'Ambre from the mainland of Mauritius, it is unlikely this population of Dodos was spatially isolated. Hipótesis del Efecto Refugio y la Desaparición del Dodo     

Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.We have developed a compromise between these two extremes, which is complex enough to describe real reef data, but simple enough that we can estimate parameters for a specific reef from a time series. In previous work, we fitted this model to a long-term data set from Heron Island, Australia, using maximum likelihood methods. To evaluate predictions from this model, we need estimates of the uncertainty in our parameters. Here, we obtain such estimates using Bayesian Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We do this for versions of the model in which corals are aggregated into a single state variable (the three-state model), and in which corals are separated into four state variables (the six-state model), in order to determine the appropriate level of aggregation. We also estimate the posterior distribution of predicted trajectories in each case.In both cases, the fitted trajectories were close to the observed data, but we had doubts about the biological plausibility of some parameter estimates. We suggest that informative prior distributions incorporating expert knowledge may resolve this problem. In the six-state model, the posterior distribution of state frequencies after 40 years contained two divergent community types, one dominated by free space and soft corals, and one dominated by acroporid, pocilloporid, and massive corals. The three-state model predicts only a single community type. We conclude that the three-state model hides too much biological heterogeneity, but we need more data if we are to obtain reliable predictions from the six-state model. It is likely that there will be similarly large, but currently unevaluated, uncertainty in the predictions of other coral reef models, many of which are much more complex and harder to fit to real data.     

浑太河流域氮磷空间异质性及其对土地利用结构的响应

利用2009年8月和2010年6月浑太河流域河流水体采样数据,结合GIS技术和地统计学方法,分析了汛期TN(总氮)、NH₄+-N(氨氮)、NO₃--N(硝酸盐氮)、TP(总磷)和PO₄3-(磷酸盐)在地表水体中的空间变异特征,并探讨了流域尺度上土地利用对氮磷营养物质的影响. 结果表明:NH₄+-N、PO₄3-和TN均受到结构性因素的影响,表现出一定空间相关性变异特征;NO₃--N和TP主要受到随机性因素的影响,表现出极弱的空间相关性变异特征. 汛期流域林地、农田和居民用地比例与氮素呈显著相关,农田和草地用地比例与氮磷均呈显著相关.可以初步推测,林地、农田和居民用地是控制氮素空间分异特征的结构性因素,农田和草地是控制磷素空间分异特征的结构性因素.