Background contents of heavy metals in sediments of theYangtze River system and their calculation methods

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降雨资料时间序列长度对降雨侵蚀力平均值置信度的影响

降雨资料时间序列长度是计算多年平均降雨侵蚀力过程中的重要不确定性因素.论文以中国601个气象站1980-2009年逐月降雨资料为数据源,利用Wischmeier经验公式计算了各气象站逐年降雨侵蚀力(R因子),用简单随机抽样方法抽取样本容量分别为30 a、 20 a、 10 a和5 a 四种不同的R值样本,计算了R平均值相对允许误差10%和25%条件下抽样估计的置信度.结果表明:降雨资料的时间序列长度对R平均值的估计置信度有显著影响;R平均值置信度存在明显的地域差异,长江以南、 青藏高原东部以及河西走廊南部的祁连山地区置信度较高;在降雨资料有限的情况下,必须根据土壤侵蚀研究的精度要求分析R平均值的抽样误差及其置信度,以保证土壤侵蚀定量预报的客观性与准确性.     

西部地级市环境监测站转型期视野中的环境统计组织体系建设探讨

通过总结西部某地级市“十一五”环境统计组织体系建设中存在的问题,从地级市环境监测站历史性转型期视野出发,提出地级市的环境统计组织建设应该依托于环境监测站的建设与发展,全力推进环境统计工作和环境监测的协同发展。     

浑太河流域氮磷空间异质性及其对土地利用结构的响应

利用2009年8月和2010年6月浑太河流域河流水体采样数据,结合GIS技术和地统计学方法,分析了汛期TN(总氮)、NH₄+-N(氨氮)、NO₃--N(硝酸盐氮)、TP(总磷)和PO₄3-(磷酸盐)在地表水体中的空间变异特征,并探讨了流域尺度上土地利用对氮磷营养物质的影响. 结果表明:NH₄+-N、PO₄3-和TN均受到结构性因素的影响,表现出一定空间相关性变异特征;NO₃--N和TP主要受到随机性因素的影响,表现出极弱的空间相关性变异特征. 汛期流域林地、农田和居民用地比例与氮素呈显著相关,农田和草地用地比例与氮磷均呈显著相关.可以初步推测,林地、农田和居民用地是控制氮素空间分异特征的结构性因素,农田和草地是控制磷素空间分异特征的结构性因素.      

提高环境统计质量措施刍议

针对环境统计数据与环境监测数据不相符的现象,着重对污染废水的采集及监测数据统计处理存在的问题进行分析,提出可行的解决方法。     

Large Biases in Regression‐Based Constituent Flux Estimates: Causes and Diagnostic Tools

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression‐based models can produce severely biased estimates of long‐term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven‐parameter model, LOADEST five‐parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST‐7 and LOADEST‐5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.     

Transport of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and ozone to the Alpine Global Atmosphere Watch stations Jungfraujoch (Switzerland), Zugspitze and Hohenpeissenberg (Germany), Sonnblick (Austria) and Mt. Krvavec (Slovenia)

The Alpine stations Zugspitze, Hohenpeissenberg, Sonnblick, Jungfraujoch and Mt. Krvavec contribute to the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (GAW) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The aim of GAW is the surveillance of the large-scale chemical composition of the atmosphere. Thus, the detection of air pollutant transport from regional sources is of particular interest. In this paper, the origin of NO_x (measured with a photo-converter), CO and O₃ at the four Alpine GAW stations is studied by trajectory residence time statistics. Although these methods originated during the early 1980s, no comprehensive study of different atmospheric trace gases measured simultaneously at several background observatories in the Alps was conducted up to present.The main NO_x source regions detected by the trajectory statistics are the northwest of Europe and the region covering East Germany, Czech Republic and southeast Poland, whereas the main CO source areas are the central, north eastern and eastern parts of Europe with some gradient from low to high latitudes. Subsiding air masses from west and southwest are relatively poor in NO_x and CO.The statistics for ozone show strong seasonal effects. Near ground air masses are poor in ozone in winter but rich in ozone in summer. The main source for high ozone concentration in winter is air masses that subside from higher elevations, often enhanced by foehn effects at Hohenpeissenberg. During summer, the Mediterranean constitutes an important additional source for high ozone concentrations.Especially during winter, large differences between Hohenpeissenberg and the higher elevated stations are found. Hohenpeissenberg is frequently within the inversion, whereas the higher elevated stations are above the inversion.Jungfraujoch is the only station where the statistics detect an influence of air rich in CO and NO_x from the Po Basin.     

Excel VBA对环境统计软件数据审核功能的改进

环境统计在综合反映全国环境状况、服务环境管理和科学决策等方面起到了重要的基础性作用。由于环境统计涉及的范围较广,数据量太多,现在所使用的＂十一五＂软件还存在部分瑕疵,数据审核模块还缺少数据之间的完整性、相关性的校验功能。针对环境统计软件数据审核功能的不足,利用Excel VBA（Visual Basicfor Applications）编写程序,完善了数据审核模块的功能,实现了对环境统计数据的快速筛选、审核,大大提高了工作效率及数据审核质量,在实际应用中取得了较好的效果。     

应用稳健统计方法对环境空气臭氧自动监测现场比对核查结果的分析研究

根据2015年9个城市53台现场臭氧分析仪的现场比对核查结果,比较研究了稳健统计方法和一般统计方法在评价国控网臭氧自动监测数据准确性和精密性上的应用。研究表明:稳健统计能够在不剔除异常数据的前提下降低异常值对正确评价臭氧自动监测数据质量的影响,适合评价现场比对核查结果;采用Hubers方法进行稳健统计,2015年国控网臭氧日常浓度点相对偏差的95%置信区间约为-0.1%至4.5%,95%预测区间为-14.0%~18.3%,变异系数约为9.5%,数据质量仍有提升空间。     

Long-term trends and short-term variability of water quality in Skive Fjord, Denmark – nutrient load and mussels are the primary pressures and drivers that influence water quality

Nineteen years of monitoring data from the eutrophic Skive Fjord, Denmark were examined for linkages to external pressures and drivers, including nutrient inputs, meteorology and stocks of blue mussels. Linkages were examined by: 1) time-series analysis to document effects of nutrient reduction programs, 2) Pearson Rank correlations, 3) multivariate statistical analysis (PLS) to identify water quality variables with high predictability and their linkages to pressures, and 4) regression analysis to quantify relationships between pressures and water quality. Freshwater input, nitrogen load and phosphorus load showed decreasing trends through the period 1984–2002. The load reductions were only partially translated into trends in water quality: phosphorus decreased in most seasons, while total nitrogen decreased during winter and spring only. Phosphorus concentration had the highest predictability (explained by seasonal temperature variation) followed by transparency, silicate, tot-N, chlorophyll-a, primary productivity, phytoplankton diversity and phytoplankton turnover. The variation in pressures other than nutrient input confounded the relations between loads and water quality. High biomass of mussels led to reduced chlorophyll-a and increased transparency, while short-term variability in water column mixing led to changes in chlorophyll-a due to nutrient entrainment and coupling to benthic mussels.