PROBLEMS AND METHODS INVOLVED IN RELATING LAND USE TO GROUND-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Efforts to relate shallow ground-water quality to the land use near a well lead to several statistical difficulties. These include potential uncertainty in land-use categorical data due to misclassification, data closure, distributional skewing, and spatial autocorrelation. Methods of addressing these problems are, respectively, the establishment of limits on minimum buffer radius, the estimation of contrasts, rank-based tests of association, and sub-sampling to prevent buffer overlap. Relations between the presence of purgeable organic compounds in ground water and land use are used to illustrate these problems and methods.     

COMBINED SEWER OVERFLOW CONTROL THROUGH IN-RECEWING WATER STORAGE: AN EFFICIENCY EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: A demonstration and efficiency evaluation project was conducted for the flow balancing method (FBM) facility, a combined sewer overflow (CSO) storage facility at Fresh Creek in Brooklyn, New York City. The FBM is a curtained tank located directly in the receiving water that captures CSO. The CSO floats on top of and displaces Fresh Creek saltwater before it is pumped back to the publicly owned treatment works (POTW). The facility was a pilot scale subject to the full CSOs. The purpose of the project was to show how the FBM can withstand severe weather and tidal conditions and to develop a procedure for estimating CSO control efficiency (percentage of CSO pumped back to the POTW). The procedure proved successful and incorporated specific conductivity as a tracer in mass balance equations. These equations provided estimates of the net percent, capture-pumpback of the CSO using the FBM, including the amount of Fresh Creek water that was included in the pumpback to the P01W. The efficiency was directly related to the volume of the CSO and the pumpback rate and ranged from a low of 3.3 percent for the largest event to a high of 76.9 percent for the smallest event. Recent FBM enlargement should result in substantial increases in CSO control. The FBM facility has operated successfully for over five years, withstanding ice storms, near hurricane force winds and up to 7 ft tidal range.     

EFFECTS OF VARIABLE DISCHARGE SCHEMES ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN AT A HYDROELECTRIC STATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of variable discharges during the summer on the dissolved oxygen (DO) content and water temperature upstream and downstream of the Conowingo Hydroelectric Power Station were investigated. The DO dynamics are controlled primarily by meteorological factors that are independent of the mode of hydrostation operation. DO stratification occurred during the summer in Conowingo Pond, but thermal stratification was not observed. The magnitude and duration of off-peak discharges including a run-of-the-river operation did not affect DO stratification in Conowingo Pond; little vertical mixing occurred. However, strong winds and/or high river flows temporarily destroyed DO stratification. The run-of-the-river operation or off-peak continuous discharge schemes did not provide better DO conditions downstream of the hydrostation than the peaking operation with intermittent off-peak releases. A statistical model predicted that a DO of 5 ppm occurs 0.6 miles downstream of the powerhouse when the natural river flow is consistently greater than 15,000 cfs and water temperature is less than 80°F. A mean daily DO of at least 4 ppm was predicted to occur over 80 percent of the time during the 92-day summer period. Farther downstream (1.3 miles from the powerhouse) a mean daily DO of at least 4 ppm was predicted to occur 90 percent of the time in summer.     

ESTIMATING LOW-FLOW QUANTILES FROM DRAINAGE-BASIN CHARACTERISTICS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT1

ABSTRACT: This study systematically develops, validates, and compares alternative approaches for estimating quantiles of the distribution of annual minimum seven-day-average flows (7Q) for ungaged, unregulated drainage basins in New Hampshire and Vermont via regression on map-measurable drainage-basin characteristics. At 47 gaging stations in the region, the hypotheses that 7Q is log normally distributed and serially independent are not rejected, and the regional average spatial correlation is R= 0.35. Step-forward examination of a suite of potential predictor variables revealed that logarithm of drainage area, mean elevation, and fraction of basin covered with sand and gravel deposits are significant predictors of quantiles of 7Q. The regression equations were incorporated into four approaches to estimate the 7Q value with a nonexceedence probability of 0.1, 7Q10. Comparison of observed values and values predicted via a delete-one jackknife resampling validation indicates that one of the approaches gives estimates with acceptable bias and precision, with median relative error of 33 percent and prediction error of 64 percent. This is equivalent to the precision obtainable with only one to two years of gaging records. In spite of this limited precision, the approaches developed herein are useful for predicting 7Q quantiles at ungaged sites. Further improvement in precision will likely be possible only by exploiting the spatial correlation of annual 7Q.     

TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF UPPER GILA RWER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Effective planning for use of water resources requires accurate information on hydrologic variability induced by climatic fluctuations. Tree-ring analysis is one method of extending our knowledge of hydrologic variability beyond the relatively short period covered by gaged streamflow records. In this paper, a network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct annual river discharge in the upper Gila River drainage in southeastern Arizona and southwestern Arizona since A.D. 1663. The need for data on hydrologic variability for this semi-arid basin is accentuated because water supply is inadequate to meet current demand. A reconstruction based on multiple linear regression (R²=0.66) indicates that 20th century is unusual for clustering of high-discharge years (early 1900s), severity of multiyear drought (1950s), and amplification of low-frequency discharge variations. Periods of low discharge recur at irregular intervals averaging about 20 years. Comparison with other tree-ring reconstructions shows that these low-flow periods are synchronous from the Gila Basin to the southern part of the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

TREND ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT A general methodology is described for identifying and statistically modeling trends which may be contained in a water quality time series. A range of useful exploratory data analysis tools are suggested for discovering important patterns and statistical characteristics of the data such as trends caused by external interventions. To estimate the entries in an evenly spaced time series when data are available at irregular time intervals, a new procedure based upon seasonal adjustment is described. Intervention analysis is employed at the confirmatory data analysis stage to rigorously model changes in the mean levels of a series which are identified using exploratory data analysis techniques. Furthermore, intervention analysis can be utilized for estimating missing observations when they are not too numerous. The effects of cutting down a forest upon various water quality variables and also the consequences of acid rain upon the alkalinity in a stream provide illustrative applications which demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology.     

美国职业卫生法规、监管及统计体系

美国是工业发达国家,是世界上最早建立“职业安全和卫生法”的国家之一。基于该法,美国确立以职业安全卫生监察局(OSHA)为执法机构、职业安全卫生复审委员会(OSHRC)为监督机构的职业卫生监管体系;同时,以劳工统计局(BLS)为统计主管机构,建立以“1904规范”为基础的企业雇主对其作业场所职业卫生记录和报告制度,并辅以两种形式的政府主动调查,形成了自下至上和自上至下相结合的调查统计体系。目前,我国职业卫生的调查统计体系尚未形成。因此,需要从工业发达国家的职业卫生法规、监管入手,以系统的方法和思路,分析其调查统计体系,学习工业发达国家的经验。研究结果认为美国的职业卫生统计体系具有上层法律及相关条例完备、组织体系职责分明、形成了政府主动调查与企业记录报告相结合的调查统计体系等明显的特点。     

EVALUATION OF NEXRAD STAGE III PRECIPITATION DATA OVER A SEMIARID REGION1

This study examines NEXRAD Stage III product (hourly, cell size 4 km by 4 km) for its ability in estimating precipitation in central New Mexico, a semiarid area. A comparison between Stage III and a network of gauge precipitation estimates during 1995 to 2001 indicates that Stage III (1) overestimates the hourly conditional mean (CM) precipitation by 33 percent in the monsoon season and 55 percent in the nonmonsoon season; (2) overestimates the hourly CM precipitation for concurrent radar‐gauge pairs (nonzero value) by 13 percent in the monsoon season and 6 percent in the nonmonsoon season; (3) overestimates the seasonal precipitation accumulation by 11 to 88 percent in monsoon season and underestimates by 18 to 89 percent in the nonmonsoon season; and (4) either overestimates annual precipitation accumulation up to 28.2 percent or underestimates it up to 11.9 percent. A truncation of 57 to 72 percent of the total rainfall hours is observed in the Stage III data in the nonmonsoon season, which may be the main cause for both the underestimation of the radar rainfall accumulation and the lower conditional probability of radar rainfall detection in the nonmonsoon season. The study results indicate that the truncation caused loss of small rainfall amounts (events) is not effectively corrected by the real‐time rain gauge calibration that can adjust the rainfall rates but cannot recover the truncated small rainfall events. However, the truncation error in the monsoon season may be suppressed due to the larger rainfall rate and/or combined effect of overestimates by bright band and hail contaminations, virga, advection, etc. In general, improvement in NEXRAD performance since the monsoon season in 1998 is observed, which is consistent with the systematic improvement in the NEXRAD network.     

Harmonisation and Standardisation in Multi-National Environmental Statistics – Mission Impossible?

Multi-national statistics are frequently based on data, whichoriginate from national surveys. The systems of nomenclatureapplied for key attributes often show national differences.Different error sources which are incorporated in multi-nationalstatistics are discussed. The paper presents approaches forharmonisation and standardisation of multi-nationalenvironmental statistics and gives examples from the forestrysector. The effect of differences of national forest areaestimates on multi-national figures is quantified. An examplefrom forest health surveys is presented that shows the impact ofdifferent interpretation and application of the attribute crown transparency that is already harmonised on theEuropean level.     

Quantification of net primary production of Chinese forest ecosystems with spatial statistical approaches

Net primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems provides food, fiber, construction materials, and energy to humans. Its demand is likely to increase substantially in this century due to rising population and biofuel uses. Assessing national forest NPP is of importance to best use forest resources in China. To date, most estimates of NPP are based on process-based ecosystem modeling, forestry inventory, and satellite observations. There are little efforts in using spatial statistical approaches while large datasets of in-situ observed NPP are available for Chinese forest ecosystems. Here we use the surveyed forest NPP and ecological data at 1,266 sites, the data of satellite forest coverage, and the information of climate and topography to estimate Chinese forest NPP and their associated uncertainties with two geospatial statistical approaches. We estimate that the Chinese forest and woodland ecosystems have total NPP of 1,325 ± 102 and 1,258 ± 186 Tg C year⁻¹ in 1.57 million km² forests with a regression method and a kriging method, respectively. These estimates are higher than the satellite-based estimate of 1,034 Tg C year⁻¹ and almost double the estimate of 778 Tg C year⁻¹ using a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model. Cross-validation suggests that the estimates with the kriging method are more accurate. Our developed geospatial statistical models could be alternative tools to provide national-level NPP estimates to better use Chinese forest resources.