基于模糊识别的建筑物火灾危险性评价方法

笔者以传统的经典统计和模糊统计为基础 ,依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素 ,应用模糊识别理论及系统安全方法 ,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系 ;并应用集值统计方法对各项指标权重进行了处理。该方法改变了过去统计给出一个固定值的做法 ,而给出一个区间值 ,解决了对专家给出的指标“大约是多少”这一概念的定量化。为了验证了评价模型的准确性 ,将该理论应用到某购物商场火灾危险性评价中 ,取得了满意效果 ,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

USE OF FIRST-ORDER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO OPTIMIZE SUCCESSFUL STREAM WATER QUALITY SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: A first-order uncertainty technique is developed to quantify the relationship between field data collection and a modeling exercise involving both calibration and subsequent verification. A simple statistic (LTOTAL) is used to quantify the total likelihood (probability) of successfully calibrating and verifying the model. Results from the first-order technique are compared with those from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach using a simple Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model. The largest single difference is caused by the filtering or removal of unrealistic outcomes within the Monte Carlo framework. The amount of bias inherent in the first-order approach is also a function of the magnitude of input variability and sampling location. The minimum bias of the first-order technique is approximately 20 percent for a case involving relatively large uncertainties. However the bias is well behaved (consistent) so as to allow for correct decision making regarding the relative efficacy of various sampling strategies. The utility of the first-order technique is demonstrated by linking data collection costs with modeling performance. For a simple and inexpensive project, a wise and informed selection resulted in an LTOTAL value of 86 percent, while an uninformed selection could result in an LTOTAL value of only 55 percent.     

A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16 km² catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicted and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basis during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set with acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to apply a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical optimization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate their performance for periods other than those for which they were determined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to have significant predictive capability. Numerical optimization is an aid for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.     

2016年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2016年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件87起,包括沙尘天气4起,污染事件18起,地震50起,山体滑坡和泥石流6起,以及其他自然灾害9起.     

2017年3-4月国内环境事件

简要统计了2017年3-4月国内发生的各种环境事件117起,包括沙尘天气16起,污染事件26起,地震30起,山体滑坡和泥石流13起,以及其他自然灾害32起.     

新乡市农村浅层地下水健康危害及污染源识别

应用健康风险评价模型和多元统计方法,对河南省新乡市农村地区浅层地下水2015年11月的水质数据(30眼地下水监测井,15个水质指标)进行分析,评估了对当地农村人口造成的健康风险,探索污染物的空间分异特征,并识别对应污染源。结果表明:30眼监测井的Cr6+、Pb、Cd、Hg、As指标均满足Ⅲ类地下水水质标准,但有29眼监测井存在超标因子,浅层地下水污染形势严峻;污染物通过饮水途径所致健康风险均大于可接受风险水平(1×10-6),浅层地下水不适宜直接饮用;监测井可以划分为A组、B组、C组,A组水体受到原生地质污染、营养污染和盐类污染的共同影响,B组受有机污染、盐类污染影响,C组受原生地质污染、盐类污染、营养污染、有机污染的多重作用。     

2017年7-8月国内环境事件

简要统计了2017年7-8月国内发生的各种环境事件160起,包括沙尘天气4起,污染事件15起,地震44起,山体滑坡和泥石流26起,旱灾10起以及其他自然灾害61起.     

贵溪冷水坑银矿田银元素富集规律研究

贵溪冷水坑银矿田具超大型规模,矿化型式多样,主要有产于花岗斑岩体内及接触带附近的斑岩型矿化和产于上侏罗统打鼓顶组火山岩中层控叠改型矿化二大类。它们各自拥有不同的空间展布、矿物组成、结构构造、围岩蚀变和伴生元素特征。深入探讨银元素的空间分布特征,可以开拓矿田深部及外围找矿的思路。     

Including spatial contiguity information in the analysis of multispecific patterns

In this paper we analyse an ordination method in which spatial contiguity information is included. The original method, proposed by Ver Hoef and Glenn-Lewin (1989), is extended, using graphs to describe spatial contiguity for several sampling schemes where locations are given. Extensions for two dimensional grids and for the case of discrete measures of abundance are analysed. Applications to simulated transect frequency data and real data collected on a regular grid are reported.     

Identification of key issues for further investigation in improving the reliability of life-cycle assessments

The interative nature of life-cycle assessment (LCA) means that more details are looked for until a certain level of reliability has been achieved. This paper is concerned with the identification of key issues for further investigation in such an iterative procedure. Key issues in this context are defined as those aspects of an LCA which need more detailed research to arrive at a solid conclusion. The main concept in the context of finding key issues is the study of the propagation of uncertainties in underlying data. The structured procedure of LCA can be described in mathematical terms, so that standard mathematical techniques for the study of the propagation of uncertainties can be employed. The influence of uncertainties in input data on uncertainties in output data can be calculated, and the main source of the resulting uncertainties can be identified. The result of the analysis is a list of prioritized key issues for more detailed research and more accurate data.