Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Normality of Hydrological Data1

ABSTRACT: Assessment of normality of hydrological data has been based upon subjective judgments. This paper aims to provide an objective method for such an assessment by introducing three computationally simple statistical tests. Application to some stream flow data indicates that (1) for annual values, at least one of the three sequences- original, square root, and logarithmic - can be considered to be normally distributed; and (2) most monthly stream flows are skew and neither the square root nor the logarithmic transformation is able to render their sequences in all the 12 months normal.     

Air quality assessment along Dhanbad - Jharia road

Road ambient air pollution status along Dhanbad – Jharia road isstudied and presented in this article. The selection of this areais made considering the importance of the road in Dhanbad district and the nature of activities taking place along the road, which reflect that the portion of road upto Dhansar can be considered as having commercial areas on both sides and that from Dhansar to Jharia as having industrial areas on both sides.For the assessment of the ambient air quality along the road monitoring is done at the following five locations: Indian Schoolof Mines (ISM), main gate; Bankmore; Dhansar police check post; Dhansar opencast project agent office and a residential house beside the Rajapur opencast project. The location of ISM, maingate is specially chosen as this represents a commercial shoppingcomplexes and the situation can be compared with that at Bankmore. Monitoring of ambient air quality is done following thestandard procedure prescribed in IS: 5182. In addition the concentration of lead, zinc, copper, iron, manganese, cadmium metals in SPM is also monitored. The ambient air quality is monitored in the months of September and November 1999, respectively, to represent monsoon and winter seasons. The SPM concentration observed at all the five locations in the winterseason is more than the permissible limits for commercial andindustrial areas. However, in the monsoon season, the SPM concentration is higher than the permissible limit at the twocommercial locations, i.e., ISM gate and Bankmore, while it isless than the prescribed limit for industrial areas at the remaining three locations. At the ISM gate and Bankmore the SPM generation is mainly by vehicular traffic while at other three locations it was in addition due to mining and other activities.     

NUMERICAL MODEL OF A TRACER TEST ON THE SANTA CLARA RWER,VENTURA COUNTY,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: To better understand the flow processes, solute-trans. port processes, and ground-water/surface-water interactions on the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, California, a 24-hour fluorescent-dye tracer study was performed under steady-state flow conditions on a 45-km reach of the river. The study reach includes perennial (uppermost and lowermost) subreaches and ephemeral subreaches of the lower Piru Creek and the middle Santa Clara River. The tracer-test data were used to calibrate a one-dimensional flow model (DAFLOW) and a solute-transport model (BLTM). The dye-arrival times at each sample location were simulated by calibrating the velocity parameters in DAFLOW. The simulations of dye transport indicated that (1) ground-water recharge explains the loss of mass in the ephemeral middle subreaches, and (2) ground-water recharge does not explain the loss of mass in the perennial uppermost and lowermost subreaches. The observed tracer curves in the perennial subreaches were indicative of sorptive dye losses, transient storage, and (or) photodecay - these phenomena were simulated using a linear decay term. However, analysis of the linear decay terms indicated that photodecay was not a dominant source of dye loss.     

空间视角下湖北省环境绩效评估及影响因素分析

以湖北省为例，基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型构建环境绩效评估指标体系，运用空间自相关和标准差椭圆对湖北省各地区绩效指数空间特征及影响因素进行探讨，结果显示：湖北省各地区环境绩效指数（EPI）均高于60，但普遍处于中等水平，良好及优秀所占比例低.EPI较高的地区主要位于湖北省西部和中部，压力和状态指数从西至东递减，响应指数则呈现东部高于西部高于中部的态势.状态指标绩效指数在空间上显著正相关，即环境质量状况较好（或较差）的地区在空间上集聚.EPI及二级指标绩效指数均以西北-东南为布局方向，且EPI椭圆重心较于基准重心偏向于西南方向.各地区环境指数除受到资源禀赋的影响外，还与城镇化率和人口密度显著相关.     

2014年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2014年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件63起,包括沙尘天气2起,污染事件16起,地震30起,山体滑坡和泥石流6起,以及其他自然灾害9起.     

浅谈与信息化管理有关的环境统计分类标准及编码研究

以环境统计信息化管理为背景,研究了国内外信息分类与编码发展情况,系统分析了中国环境统计报告制度中统计指标的编码现状及不足,并结合工作现状及管理需求,提出了环境统计分类编码的需求,确立了环境统计分类编码的目标及原则,研究制定了以层次分类法为主、结合面分类法的环境统计分类编码方法,形成能为中国环境统计信息化管理服务的分类标准及编码体系.     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

EFFECTS OF MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER DISCHARGES ON AQUATIC COMMUNITIES,BOISE RWER,IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Aquatic communities in the Boise River were examined from October 1987 to March 1988 to determine whether they were adversely affected by trace elements in effluents from two Boise wastewater treatment facilities. Trace-element concentrations in the Boise River were less than or near analytical-detection levels and were less than chronic toxicity criteria when detectable. Insect communities colonizing artificial substrates upstream and downstream from the wastewater treatment facilities were strongly associated, and coefficients of community loss indicated that effluents had benign enriching effects. The distributions of trace-element-intolerant mayflies indicated that trace-element concentrations in effluents did not adversely affect intolerant organisms in the Boise River. Condition factor of whitefish was significantly increased downstream from the Lander Street wastewater treatment facility and was significantly decreased downstream from the West Boise wastewater treatment facility.