基于经济普查引入EGSS统计框架的可行性分析

环境货物和服务部门(EGSS)统计框架是由欧盟统计署研究制定的、用于收集和整理环境产品与服务相关统计数据的方法,已经被联合国统计署纳入"环境经济统计体系(SEEA)"中,成为一项国际统计标准。中国的经济普查工作在数据采集方式上与EGSS具有较好的一致性,本文主要对我国的经济普查与EGSS统计框架进行比较研究,探索从经济普查表核算EGSS数据的方法和思路。结果表明:经济普查可作为常规统计口径核算EGSS数据的一个切入点,但是需要在数据连续性、行业小类划分、统计的经济指标范围方面进行衔接融合;基于经济普查数据引进EGSS统计框架可采取分阶段推进方式。     

COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD QUANTILES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT1

We develop and compare three regression models for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged stream reaches in New Hampshire and Vermont. These models emerge from systematic analysis and validation of relations between flood magnitude and six candidate predictors reflecting basin size, topography, and climate and channel size at 36 gaging stations with record lengths exceeding 20 years. Of the candidate predictors, bank full width is most highly correlated with flood magnitude and the best prediction equation is based on width. Thus channel geometry is closely related to the current hydrologic regime in spite of geologically recent glaciation and apparently non-alluvial bank materials. We also develop models that use information obtainable from maps or GIS. The best of these uses drainage area and drainage-basin elevation as predictors, but it is substantially less precise than the width-based relation. A third relation using only drainage area as a predictor is even less precise but may be useful for some purposes. No other single predictors or combinations yielded useful predictions, although some had been included in previously-established models for the region. Model comparison included examination of residuals generated by regression using one-at-a-time suppression of data points and comparison with precision obtainable with gaging records of varying lengths.     

Trends of air pollution in the Fichtelgebirge Mountains, Bavaria

We analyzed 13 years of hourly measurements of SO₂, NO_x, and O₃, at forest ecosystem research sites in SE Germany. A quasi-continuous data record was obtained by combining data sets from two locations. Before interpreting trends in the combined data set, we analyzed if the change of location introduced a systematic bias. We employed autocorrelation functions, Hurst statistics, complexity analysis, and recurrence quantification and found that the partial data sets exhibited no indication of the presence of any bias. For SO₂, we also compared the data from the forest sites with data obtained in nearby cities and also found no indications for any systematic effects. Applying nonparametric trend statistics we found a significant decrease of the SO₂. Most of the observed decrease is due to the reductions of SO₂ emissions in eastern Germany, but reductions in western Germany and the Czech Republic also played important roles. For O₃, we observed a significant increase, the causes of which are unclear from our data alone. No trend was identified for NO_x.     

2009年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2009年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件68起,包括沙尘天气2起,污染事件14起,地震40起,山体滑坡和泥石流7起,旱灾3起以及其他自然灾害2起.     

概率统计在矿井通风系统可靠性评估中的应用

构建一个随机非稳定地下矿山通风系统,此通风系统有三个机组,机组的随机运行状态构成了一个完整的“系统的概率结构”。对此通风系统的运行状态进行概率统计分析,探讨了该随机系统的特征。由此推导出了通风系统故障的平均时间是一个显式的概率表达式。同时,假设系统失效时间和更换时间符合指数分布的情况下,得出计算系统故障平均时间的一个五阶多项式公式。通过验证,证明了系统故障平均时间的大小依赖于系统维修和更换的比率,而且是检验系统可靠性的重要指标,有利于提高矿山安全水平。     

亚临界机组锅炉锅筒缺陷统计及检验建议

锅简作为亚临界机组锅炉的重要部件,及时检验发现其存在缺陷并进行控制处理是保证机组安全稳定运行的重要条件。在收集汇总了近百台300MW级别亚临界机组锅炉的检验结果的基础上,对锅简缺陷的出现比例进行了分类统计。检验人员在编制锅筒的检验方案时,参考该统计结果,可提高检验的缺陷检出率及时效性。     

近十年我国人机工程学应用研究进展

借助维普《中文科技期刊数据库》,按照不同的学科门类、发表的年限以及人机工程学的研究内容,对1994～2003年国内近4000种主要刊物上发表的有关人机工程学应用研究方面的论文进行全面检索和统计,在此基础上分析我国人机工程应用研究的进展情况。     

2005年1-2月国内环境事件数据

简要统计了2005年1-2月国内发生的各种环境事件55起,包括污染事件(21起)、山体滑坡和泥石流(9起)、地震(11起)以及其他自然灾害(14起).最后对海洋污染和海洋灾害进行了讨论.     

自助加油站典型静电事故案例分析及防范措施

随着自助加油站在我国的不断推广和普及,其安全防护问题也日益凸显.为了促进我国自助加油站的安全管理,降低自助加油站的运营风险,首先对自助加油站面临的安全风险做了阐述,然后针对国内外自助加油站的典型静电事故案例进行了分析、整理及总结,并在参考和借鉴国外自助加油站相关法规的基础上,提出了一系列有针对性的静电事故防护措施.     

Flooding in Texas: Examination of Temporal Changes and Impacts of Tropical Cyclones

Annual maximum peak discharge measurements from 62 stations with a record of at least 70 years are used to assess extreme flooding in Texas at the regional scale. This work focuses on examination of the validity of the stationarity assumption and on the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. We assess the validity of the stationarity assumption by testing the records for abrupt and gradual changes. The presence of abrupt changes in the first two moments of the flood peak distribution is assessed using the Lombard test. We use the Mann‐Kendall test to examine the presence of monotonic trends. Results indicate that violations of the stationarity assumption are most commonly caused by abrupt changes, which are often associated with river regulation. We fit the time series of stationary flood records with the generalized extreme value distribution to investigate whether TCs control the upper tail of the flood peak distribution. Our results indicate that TCs play a diminished role in shaping the upper tail of the flood peak distribution compared with areas of the eastern United States subject to frequent TCs.