专家系统及其在农业与自然资源管理中的应用

阐述了专家系统的概念及其与传统程序、其它计算机辅助决策的区别，综述了专家系统在农业与自然资源管理中的应用现状及其日益重要的作用，探讨了农业专家系统的发展趋向。     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序 ;论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点 ;认为应用网络技术 ,建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系 ,可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

Statistics: an essential technology in environmental research and management

Statistical methods as developed and used in decision making and scientific research are of recent origin. The logical foundations of statistics are still under discussion and some care is needed in applying the existing methodology and interpreting results. Some pitfalls in statistical data analysis are discussed and the importance of cross examination of data (or exploratory data analysis) before using specific statistical techniques are emphasized. Comments are made on the treatment of outliers, choice of stochastic models, use of multivariate techniques and the choice of software (expert systems) in statistical analysis. The need for developing new methodology with particular relevance to environmental research and policy is stressed.Dr Rao is Eberly Professor of Statistics and Director of the Penn State Center for Multivariate Analysis. He has received PhD and ScD degrees from Cambridge University, and has been awarded numerous honorary doctorates from universities around the world. He is a Fellow of Royal Society, UK; Fellow of Indian National Science Academy; Foreign Honorary Member of American Academy of Arts and Science; Life Fellow of King's College, Cambridge; and Founder Fellow of the Third World Academy of Sciences. He is Honorary Fellow and President of International Statistical Institute, Biometric Society and elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He has made outstanding contributions to virtually all important topics of theoretical and applied statistics, and many results bear his name. He has been Editor of Sankhya and theJournal of Multivariate Analysis, and serves on international advisory boards of several professional journals, includingEnvironmetrics and theJournal of Environmental Statistics. This paper is based on the keynote address to the Seventh Annual Conference on Statistics of the United States Environmental Protection Agency.     

Discounted knowledges: farmers» and residents» understandings of nature conservation goals and policies

Local Biodiversity Action Plans are the preferred policy mechanism for setting and delivering local biodiversity targets in the UK. This paper reviews the kind of knowledge conservation scientists envisage being used to identify and set local targets, and explores the means of incorporating local knowledge into this process. We use a case study of a Wildlife Enhancement Scheme (WES) on the Pevensey Levels, East Sussex, to reveal the understandings that local farmers and residents have of the nature conservation goals and practices associated with the scheme. Drawing on the findings of in-depth discussion groups, we show how farmers challenge both the monopoly of knowledge conservationists profess about nature, and the enlistment of farmers on the scheme as «technicians», motivated solely by financial rewards, rather than as knowledgeable experts who also have emotional attachments and ethical values for nature. Local people use their knowledge of both local farmers, and the industry in general, to challenge the assumption that farmers can be trusted with delivering nature conservation goals. In the absence of a commitment by central government to agree widely-held environmental standards, and a more democratic process of making judgements about what local nature is worth conserving, local residents challenge existing processes designed to conserve nature that are driven by the knowledge and practices of official experts alone. The findings of the study suggest that a widening of the knowledge base on which the goals and practices of nature conservation are founded, and a more deliberative process of making decisions about what nature is important locally, will secure and strengthen public support for local biodiversity action plans.1998 Academic Press     

Traditional Plant Harvesting in Contemporary Fragmented and Urban Landscapes

Abstract: Ecosystem fragmentation and destruction can lead to restrictive administration policies on traditional harvesting by indigenous peoples from remaining ecosystem tracts. In New Zealand, concerns about endangered species and governmental policies that focus on species and ecosystem preservation have resulted in severely curtailed traditional harvesting rights. Although provision has been made for limited gathering of traditional plants from government‐administered conservation lands, it is unclear how much harvesting is undertaken on these lands and elsewhere and what this harvest might consist of. We interviewed seven expert Maori elders from the Waikato, New Zealand, to identify plant species they currently harvested and from where. We compared these data with the data we collected on permits issued for plant collecting on conservation lands in the same region. We sought to gain information on indigenous plant harvesting to determine the extent of permitted harvesting from conservation lands in the Waikato and to identify issues that might affect plant harvesting and management. Elders identified 58 species they harvest regularly or consider culturally important; over 50% of these species are harvested for medicinal use. Permit data from 1996 to 2006 indicated no apparent relationship between species of reported cultural significance and the number of permits issued for each of these species. Currently, few plant species are harvested from conservation lands, although some unofficial harvesting occurs. Elders instead reported that medicinal plants are frequently collected from urban and other public areas. They reported that plant species used for dyeing, carving, and weaving are difficult to access. Elders also discussed concerns such as spraying of roadsides, which resulted in the death of medicinal species, and use of commercial hybrids in urban planning. Local government may have an increasingly important role in supporting native traditions through urban planning, which takes account of cultural harvesting needs while potentially reducing future harvesting pressure on conservation lands. We suggest that active participation by the Māori community in the development and management of urban harvesting resources will result in positive outcomes.     

Traditional Ecological Knowledge Trends in the Transition to a Market Economy: Empirical Study in the Doñana Natural Areas

Abstract: Researchers and conservation managers largely agree on the relevance of traditional ecological knowledge for natural resource management in indigenous communities, but its prevalence and role as societies modernize are contested. We analyzed the transmission of traditional knowledge among rural local people in communities linked to protected areas in Doñana, southwestern Spain. We studied changes in knowledge related to local practices in agriculture and livestock farming among 198 informants from three generations that cover the period in which the area transited from an economy strongly dependent on local ecosystem services to a market economy with intensified production systems. Our results suggest an abrupt loss of traditional agricultural knowledge related to rapid transformations and intensification of agricultural systems, but maintenance of knowledge of traditional livestock farming, an activity allowed in the protected areas that maintains strong links with local cultural identity. Our results demonstrate the potential of protected areas in protecting remaining bodies of traditional ecological knowledge in developed country settings. Nevertheless, we note that strict protection in cultural‐landscape‐dominated areas can disrupt transmission of traditional knowledge if local resource users and related practices are excluded from ecosystem management.     

Evaluation of Local Ecological Knowledge as a Method for Collecting Extensive Data on Animal Abundance

Abstract:  The use of local ecological knowledge (LEK) has been advocated for biodiversity monitoring and management. To date, however, it has been underused in studying wild populations of animals and, particularly, in obtaining quantitative abundance estimates. We evaluated LEK as a tool for collecting extensive data on local animal abundance and population trends. We interviewed shepherds in southeastern Spain, asking them to estimate the local abundance of the terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca . We quantified reliability of abundance estimates derived from interviews by comparing them with those obtained from standard field-sampling protocols (distance sampling). We also explored the complementarity of these 2 approaches. LEK provided high-quality and low-cost information about both distribution and abundance of T. graeca . Interviews with shepherds yielded abundance estimates in a much wider range than linear transects, which only detected the species in the upper two-thirds of its abundance range. Abundance estimates from both methodologies showed a close relationship. Analysis of confidence intervals indicated local knowledge could be used to estimate mean local abundances and to detect mean population trends. A cost analysis determined that the information derived from LEK was 100 times cheaper than that obtained through linear-transect surveys. Our results should further the use of LEK as a standard tool for sampling the quantitative abundance of a great variety of taxa, particularly when population densities are low and traditional sampling methods are expensive or difficult to implement.     

Into the Field: Naturalistic Education and the Future of Conservation

Abstract:  Some educational psychologists and researchers have argued that there are multiple ways of being intelligent. In the early 1980s, Howard Gardner presented a theory of multiple intelligences by proposing that humans can be described not by a single kind of intelligence, or intelligence quotient score, but rather by a variety of kinds of intelligence. This idea of considering multiple views of intelligence has helped educators look at intelligence from a less rigid, more expansive perspective. I considered how the relatively new concept of naturalistic intelligence, which is the cognitive potential to process information that is exhibited by expert naturalists, might influence the design of undergraduate biology curricula. Naturalistic intelligence can be fostered in undergraduate biology students by emphasizing the need for well-rounded scientific naturalists; developing curricula that involves students in outdoor inquiry-based projects; and helping students learn how to observe both the natural world and their own learning, skills that are essential to developing expert naturalistic knowledge. Professors, graduate students, and administrators can improve the naturalistic intelligence of undergraduate biology students by giving these students opportunities to be involved in outdoor research. Time spent outdoors alone and among people with expertise in natural history, ecology, and conservation biology will have important influences on the knowledge and skills biology undergraduates learn, the careers they pursue, and the contributions they make to conserving Earth's biodiversity.     

Ranking ecosystem services delivered by trees in urban and rural areas

Policies and strategies for tree management and protection on a national, regional, and local level have not sufficiently considered differences between rural and urban areas. We used expert knowledge to compare rural and urban areas in a case study evaluating the relative importance of ecosystem services (ES) in policy development. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and focus group discussions were used to rank 17 ES, representing four classes of services: provisioning, regulating, habitat, and cultural. The results indicated that effective protection strategies, beyond simply increasing general tree cover, should consider specific benefits trees provide to local communities. We discuss the role of objective prioritization of ES delivered by trees in urban and rural areas and their consequences for decision-making processes.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01722-2.