Climate Services and Communication for Development: The Role of Early Career Researchers in Advancing the Debate

Climate services entail providing timely and tailored climate information to end-users in order to facilitate and improve decision-making processes. Climate services are instrumental in socio-economic development and benefit substantially from interdisciplinary collaborations, particularly when including Early Career Researchers (ECRs). This commentary critically discusses deliberations from an interdisciplinary workshop involving ECRs from the United Kingdom and South Africa in 2017, to discuss issues in climate adaptation and climate services development in water resources, food security and agriculture. Outcomes from the discussions revolved around key issues somewhat marginalized within the broader climate service discourse. This commentary discusses what constitutes “effective” communication, framings (user framings, mental models, narratives, co-production) and ethical dimensions in developing climate services that can best serve end-users. It also reflects on how ECRs can help tackle these important thematic areas and advance the discourse on climate services.     

基于结构方程模型的地铁乘客安全行为影响因素分析

为了研究地铁乘客安全行为的影响因素,通过对北京、上海、广州、深圳等城市的地铁乘客的多项安全指标的抽样调查,建立了关于乘客安全行为的结构方程模型,研究了影响地铁乘客安全行为的主要因素。结果表明:良好的地铁安全氛围能有效提高乘客的安全知识水平、安全动机、安全心理水平、安全参与行为水平;安全参与行为水平同时受到乘客安全知识水平和乘客接受安全培训状况的影响,其中,乘客安全知识水平的高低取决于乘客接受安全培训状况;安全服从行为则与安全动机存在较强的正相关关系;乘客的安全心理水平只跟地铁安全氛围有关,安全氛围越好,乘客安全心理水平越高,安全知识作为中介变量同时影响着安全氛围与安全参与行为、安全培训与安全参与行为、安全氛围与安全动机以及安全培训与安全动机之间的关系,提高乘客安全知识水平是提高乘客安全行为水平的重要途径。     

有机工业废水中常见污染物结构与活性关系专家系统研究

应用专家系统方法对88种有机工业废水中常见污染物的构效关系进行深入研究。结果表明,对学习集中68种化合物的正确分类率达到95％,对其余20种化合物的正确预报率达到90％。并应用量子化学方法对专家系统推理过程中所采用的部分构效关系规律进行解释。     

环境专家系统进展

本文对国内外环境专家系统的进展及其特点进行了综述。认为:环境专家系统可以应用于环境科学的各个领域,成为解决环境问题的有用工具。目前,基于事实的推理型专家系统是环境专家系统的主流,环境专家系统又是环境数据库、环境信息系统的进一步补充与完善。文中最后例举了如何将环境模式计算和环境专家系统结合起来解决区域大气质量评价的实际问题。     

基于知识的管道系统泄漏检测方法

提出了3种基于知识的管道系统泄漏检测方法,分别是:通过对负压波波形分段符号化处理,采用上下文无关法表示波形结构模式的模式识别诊断系统;以选取合适维数的功率谱特征向量而建立的神经网络泄漏检测系统;与泄漏机理数学模型结合的泄漏诊断专家系统。     

Incorporating GIS and MCE for Suitability Assessment Modelling of Coral Reef Resources

Assessment, planning and management for coral reef ecosystems are particularly challenging tasks, especially in developing countries. In this study, a methodological approach which integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) for the development of suitability assessment models for a variety of uses of coral reef resources is discussed. Such an approach is sustained by an extensive use of local expert knowledge coded in the form of automated decision trees (DTs). The usefulness of the approach and the models developed is demonstrated by their application to the participatory assessment and resources planning at “Alacranes Reef National Park” (ARNP), Yucatán, México. Overlaying of resulting suitability maps was also applied for identifying potential conflicting areas.     

小学生水域安全知信行问卷编制及信效度检验

在文献检索和访谈的基础上,提出有关编制适用于我国小学生水域安全调研的知信行(KAP)问卷的理论构想。以此为基础,编制小学生水域安全知信行初始问卷。经初测(N=495)和正式测量(N=2 554),运用探索性因素分析方法筛选条目,用克朗巴赫法评价同质性信度,据内容效度比评价内容效度,用探索性和验证性因素分析方法评价结构效度。问卷包含4个维度(水域安全知识、技能、态度和高危行为)共39个条目。问卷的信效度检验结果表明,问卷的因素结构、同质性信度、内容效度和结构效度均达到心理测量学的要求。小学生水域安全知信行问卷具有较为满意的信、效度,较好地反映了问卷设计的理论构想。     

River use profile of the Central Niger Delta based on traditional eco-livelihood knowledge (TELK)

The Central Niger Delta is made up of a network of rivers and creeks that constitute the inland surface waters. These surface waters have historically influenced settlement patterns and are of diverse use to residents of the Central Niger Delta. Surface water like many ecological system are complex, whose complexity has been associated with seasonal variability. Traditional knowledge (TK), traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and the traditional eco-livelihood knowledge (TELK) of residents of four rural communities in the Central Niger Delta have been explored in developing a river use profile of rural communities of the Central Niger Delta. A questionnaire survey has been carried out in four communities, two each from the Otuoke and Kolo Creeks. The result shows that river use varies across seasons and affected by: physico-chemical water quality and characteristics of surface water; the hydrological characteristics; the biological/ecological characteristics; cultural use and demand; need for development projects; and access to this vital resource. Fishing constitute one of the major livelihood source in the Central Niger Delta and the TELK of fishers in the sample communities have specifically been explored to understanding fishing patterns across seasons. The five seasons identified from this study are: flood season; flood recession season; dry season; early rainy season; and rainy season. Therefore, the thesis of this paper is that there is the need to balance the current usage of surface water in the developing world such as the Central Niger Delta with the demand for development as well as future use if development is to meet the criteria for equitable development. The river use profile could be a promising tool in planning for equitable development.

The extraction and utilization of local and scientific geospatial knowledge within the Bluff oyster fishery, New Zealand

This paper assesses the Bluff oyster fishery in New Zealand as a case study in common pool resource management. It discusses ways in which modern information technology, augmented by low-tech data gathering strategies and community ethnography, can be used to produce an integrated scientific and local knowledge-inspired fishery database that lends itself to fostering collaboration in resource management and planning. The specific context and state of the oyster fishery in Bluff are described. Issues regarding undocumented and ephemeral intergenerational knowledge, much of which is geospatial in nature, on the fishery, the current crisis that many see in the future of the fishery, and a lack of cohesion or common sense of purpose between the stakeholder groups are discussed. It is argued that the digital resource that results from the integration of local and scientific knowledge and the potential community building processes that can ensue from collaboration and dialogue around this centrepiece are of central importance in developing an oyster fishery management plan that is holistic in concept and sustainable in purpose.     

模糊评价法在生物安全实验室环境风险评价中的应用

提出一种有关生物安全实验室环境风险的评价方法。构建生物安全实验室环境风险评价指标体系(体系共分为4级,包含3个一级指标,12个二级指标,10个三级指标,69个四级指标)和生物安全实验室环境风险评价的模糊综合评价模型;应用专家打分法确定指标的权重判断矩阵数据和隶属度数据;采用层次分析法对判断矩阵进行处理得到指标权重数据;按照评价模型的程序对权重数据和隶属度数据进行处理,最终得到生物安全实验室的风险评价值。以某生物安全实验室作为案例,运用笔者提出的方法,得到该实验室的评价值,因而为更好地分析实验室的环境风险,采取有效的风险预防措施提供了依据。