软土地层地铁盾构施工风险可拓评估方法研究

为了综合评价软土地层地铁盾构施工风险,结合软土地层土质特点,选取地质复杂情况、地下水状况、最小覆土厚度、最小曲率半径、掘进长度、与临近周边环境距离和施工管理水平7个风险影响因素作为评价指标,采用简单关联函数法计算得到各评价指标的权重,避免了主观因素的干扰,运用可拓学理论建立了风险可拓评估模型,并将该模型应用于宁波轨道交通工程2号线栎社机场站-栎社新村站盾构区间的风险评估,得到该区间盾构施工风险等级为中度风险,评估结果较好地反映了工程的实际情况。     

鱼水雷延寿策略与试验技术探讨

针对水中兵器达到规定的贮存期后,如何对状态进行再评估,并通过维修、换件等手段延长装备服役年限,进一步发挥装备效益,通过阐述水中兵器延寿研究现状,详细分析了高温、低温和交变温度等因素对产品组成材料的影响及失效机理.在此基础上,以鱼雷为例,提出了贮存寿命加速试验设计流程,综合考核多种因素,确定贮存寿命加速试验的应力类型、全雷温度加速因子、温度加速试验应力和加速试验时间,建立了试验流程图.按照确定后的相关要素,制定了试验方案,明确了贮存失效和贮存寿命终止判据.综合记录数据、失效判定和试验情况,提出了试验结论和改进意见,为装备定寿指标确认和延寿措施制定提供依据支撑.     

A710钢断裂韧性与再热裂纹扩展量的关联数模

分析了焊后再热裂纹扩展量与断裂韧性的关系,建立了A710钢J积分断裂韧性随裂纹扩展量Δa变化的关联数模,从而为进一步研究材料断裂机理,为含损压力容器临界裂纹尺寸提供了较为可靠的设计判据.     

某造纸企业扩建项目环境影响评价工作中清洁生产方案的制定

某造纸企业现有1#～4#生产线在原料储存、工艺技术、设备维护及管理等方面存在较多问题,现拟扩建5#生产线,针对现有工程存在的具体问题及扩建工程原料采用进口木浆的特点,环评制定了1#～4#线集中制浆技改、4#线除渣、1#、4#线节电改造、污水处理站节电改造、可控硅改变频、5#线白水回用等一系列清洁生产方案,并进行可行性分析,给出清洁生产方案实施前后的环境效益对比分析.     

基于可拓学的地铁车站深基坑施工安全评价

针对地铁车站深基坑施工工艺复杂、不确定因素多、施工阶段风险概率高、风险损失后果严重等问题,采用层次分析法构建评价指标体系,利用可拓学理论建立可拓评价模型,通过定量化、模型化的方式使矛盾问题转化为相容问题。得到相应的评价指标体系和评价模型后,结合工程实际和专家打分确定安全评价指标权重,进而通过计算评价指标和对象之间的关联函数和关联度,最终得出目标层所属的安全等级。工程实例结果表明,基于可拓学的安全评价结果基本符合实际施工安全等级,该方法有效可行。     

基于物元多级可拓模型的档案馆火灾安全风险评价

档案馆是收集、保管纸质档案材料的场所,火灾荷载大。档案馆火灾造成的社会影响和经济损失是无法估量的。为了评估档案馆火灾安全风险状况,预防档案馆火灾的发生,通过分析档案馆火灾安全风险因素,全面、系统地构建了由4个一级指标,27个二级指标构成的档案馆火灾安全风险评估指标体系,构建了基于多级可拓模型的档案馆火灾安全风险评估模型。应用该模型对西安某档案馆进行实证评价,得出该档案馆火灾安全风险等级为II级,评估结果与实际安全情况相符,表明该模型适用于档案馆的火灾安全风险评价。     

The communal crop: modulation of sucrose response thresholds of pre-foraging honey bees with incoming nectar quality

We examined whether the quality (concentration) of incoming sucrose solutions returned by foraging honey bees affected the response thresholds of pre-foraging members of the colony. Six pairs of colonies were given ad libitum access to sucrose solution feeders. A colony from each pair was switched from 20–50% sugar concentration feeders while the other continued to have access to 20% sucrose feeders. Proboscis extension response (PER) scores to an increasing series of sucrose concentrations were significantly higher in pre-foragers of colonies foraging on 20% sucrose throughout compared to pre-foragers in colonies where foraging was switched to 50% sucrose. Although all colonies had honey stores, the concentration of sugar solution in non-foraging bees crops were significantly lower in bees from colonies foraging on 20% sucrose compared to those from colonies foraging on 50% sucrose. Because response thresholds to sugar of young bees were modulated by the concentration of sucrose solution returned to colonies, we repeated the 2000 study of Pankiw and Page that potentially confounded baseline response thresholds with modulated scores due to experience in the colony. Here, we examined PER scores to sucrose in bees within 6 h of emergence, prior to feeding experience, and their forage choice 2 to 3 weeks later. Pollen foragers had higher PER scores as newly emerged bees compared to bees that eventually became nectar foragers. These results confirm those of the 2000 study by Pankiw and Page. Combined, these experiments demonstrate that variation in pre-forager sucrose response thresholds are established prior to emerging as adults but may be modulated by incoming resources later on. Whether this modulation has long-term effects on foraging behavior is unknown but modulation has short-term effects and the potential to act as a means of communication among all bees in the colony.Communicated by M. Giurfa     

Nikinake: the mobilization of labour and skill development in rural Ethiopia

A public mobilization approach known as nikinake drives implementation and technology upscaling in Ethiopia's agricultural extension. This study investigates and describes the processes and effectiveness of nikinake as an extension method used for natural resource management (NRM). The paper draws on empirical field research conducted in Oromia and the southern region of Ethiopia by looking at nikinake in the context of a watershed management campaign in 2015 and 2016. Nikinake is used as an approach to mobilize the public and to promote the skills of farmers and development actors. In principle, the implementation of NRM is voluntary; however, it is largely planned top‐down and enforced through state actors and informal institutions. This study suggests effective integration of social mobilization with reliable extension and a paradigm shift in emphasis from spatial coverage to an effective outcome. Additionally, sustainability and scalability of NRM interventions could be ameliorated by improving experts’ technical skills, raising farmers’ awareness, improving an incentive system, building trust, and better integrating past watershed management and future planning activities. We reflect on the significance of the nikinake experience in Ethiopia for a broader theory of extension‐as‐mobilization for rural development. From the Ethiopian case, a more general recommendation emerges for extension‐as‐mobilization schemes. For long‐term development, it is worthwhile to consider the fit between yearly campaigns as ad hoc project organizations and the existing pattern of actors and institutions responsible for rural development.     

城市轨道交通隧道火灾风险的多级可拓综合评价

在构建城市轨道交通隧道火灾评价指标体系的基础上,建立了多级可拓综合评价模型,通过关联度的计算,判定各风险评价指标与风险等级的距离。以长沙市某隧道为例,通过评价权值、待评物元、关联度的计算,确定该隧道火灾风险的等级。结果表明,该火灾风险等级为2级,风险水平可接受,但需要整改。     

基于模糊可拓方法的泥石流危险度区划研究

泥石流危险度区划是一个复杂的问题，影响泥石流危险度的诸多因素中既有定性描述的，也有定量描述的，因此，必须将定性与定量描述有机地结合起来，才能获得较为合理的区划结果。本文将模糊数学与可拓方法相结合，在物元理论、可拓集合论和关联函数的基础上，利用区域泥石流危险度等级分类和区划指标隶属度化使其无量纲化，构造了经典物元和节域物元，并建立了泥石流危险度区划的模糊可拓模型。实例应用表明该方法能较真实地反映实际区域的泥石流危险度等级．