PROCEDURES FOR THE EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method of analyzing the nonquantifiable parameters which should be considered in the evaluation of engineering alternatives. The nonquantifiable parameters can include environmental impact, feasibility of implementation, and performance. The method considers rating all the alternatives on the basis of a set of criteria which reflect these parameters. A procedure is discussed for obtaining review and guidance in the evaluation of engineering alternatives from the local elected officials or governing bodies and for obtaining the views and desires of the local communities. This is achieved through the formation of project review committees and an evaluation procedure which allows for the technical rating of alternatives by the engineer and the weighing of the evaluation criteria by the political and social groups. With the growing environmental concern and the high cost of engineering projects, the involvement of the public during the evaluation of engineering projects is becoming increasingly important to the final success of the project.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION THROUGH OBJECTIVE TRADE-OFFS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource development has progressed to the stage where various human factors are now being considered in reservoir design and operation. The introduction of human factor objectives complicates the problem since they are noncommensurate with other objectives and they are difficult to identify quantitatively. Some of the problems that now arise concern the proper methods for consideration of several different, sometimes subjectively identified, objectives in reservoir planning. The classical systems analysis approach to decision making for multiple objective problems is outlined and the inherent difficulties associated with multiple objectives and subjective estimates are identified. Techniques being used in reservoir design and operation are reviewed and discussed. An alternate technique for considering noncommensurate, subjectively identified, objectives, which relates the objectives in terms of real trade-off costs and eliminates the need for a priori estimates of objective worth is then presented. The method is illustrated with three examples, including a reservoir operation problem and a cooling tower design problem.     

Prospects for Reconciling the Conflict between Economic Growth and Biodiversity Conservation with Technological Progress

Abstract: The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is understood in portions of academia and sometimes acknowledged in political circles. Nevertheless, there is not a unified response. In political and policy circles, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is posited to solve the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection. In academia, however, the EKC has been deemed fallacious in macroeconomic scenarios and largely irrelevant to biodiversity. A more compelling response to the conflict is that it may be resolved with technological progress. Herein I review the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in the absence of technological progress, explore the prospects for technological progress to reconcile that conflict, and provide linguistic suggestions for describing the relationships among economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is based on the first two laws of thermodynamics and principles of ecology such as trophic levels and competitive exclusion. In this biophysical context, the human economy grows at the competitive exclusion of nonhuman species in the aggregate. Reconciling the conflict via technological progress has not occurred and is infeasible because of the tight linkage between technological progress and economic growth at current levels of technology. Surplus production in existing economic sectors is required for conducting the research and development necessary for bringing new technologies to market. Technological regimes also reflect macroeconomic goals, and if the goal is economic growth, reconciliatory technologies are less likely to be developed. As the economy grows, the loss of biodiversity may be partly mitigated with end‐use innovation that increases technical efficiency, but this type of technological progress requires policies that are unlikely if the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation (and other aspects of environmental protection) is not acknowledged.     

热备用应急电源在化工企业中的应用

介绍了热备用应急电源(EPS)的分类、原理、选型、特点以及操作注意事项。随着智能化程度的提高、快速切换型离线技术的应用,具有抗晃电、稳频稳压、离线运行、快速切换、等功率拖动电机特性的应急电源产品,已不仅仅局限于变电所、厂区照明的应用,而且还用于安全设备、生产设备等。     

铅锌冶炼厂周边农田土壤、苕子与荠菜的重金属污染特征

在云南某铅锌矿冶炼厂周边农田,采集当地主要绿肥(苕子)与野菜(荠菜)的植株和根部土壤样品,测定重金属(Pb、Zn、Cu和Cd)的全量和DTPA提取的有效态质量比,并进行污染评价.结果表明:1)综合污染指数评价显示,铅锌冶炼厂周边农田土壤以重度和中度重金属污染为主,Cd质量比为GB 15618-1995《土壤环境质量标准》三级标准限值的1.94～8.30倍,污染程度最重,其次为Pb和Zn;2)荠菜植株Pb、Zn和Cd质量比的最大值、平均值均大于苕子;荠菜对Cd的富集系数大于1,对Pb、Zn和Cd的转移系数大于或接近1;3)苕子和荠菜地上部与土壤的Cd、Pb质量比,苕子地下部与土壤的Pb质量比,荠菜地上部与土壤的Zn质量比均呈显著或极显著正相关.研究表明:铅锌冶炼厂周边农田存在严重的重金属污染,Cd是主要污染因子;苕子和荠菜植株重金属质量比高,且荠菜对重金属的富集能力大于苕子.     

河南省武陟县大田土壤重金属形态分布及潜在生态风险评价

为了解河南省武陟县大田土壤重金属Cr、Cd、Pb、As、Cu、Se、Ni和Co的形态分布和生态风险情况,在该区域采集了12个表层土壤(0～20cm)样品,采用修正的BCR连续提取法进行形态分析,探讨其生物有效性,并采用Hakanson指数法评价了重金属的潜在生态风险.结果表明,土壤中不同重金属的形态分布差异很大,其中,Cr、As、Ni和Co均主要以残渣态存在,分别占其总量的66.6％、61.4％、50.7％和41.8％;Cu和Se主要以可氧化态存在,分别占其总量的43.8％和67.8％;Pb主要以可还原态存在,占总量的61.1％;Cd主要以酸提取态存在,占总量的53.3％.生物有效性分析表明,Cd的可利用态K1为0.933,生物有效性是最大的,对土壤生态系统的潜在危害性较大,其次是Pb和Co;Cu和Se在土壤环境发生变化时,很容易再次释放到外界环境中;Cr、As和Ni不易被外界生物利用.潜在生态风险评价结果显示,以国家土壤环境质量标准二级标准为参比值时,Cr、Cd、Pb、As、Cu和Ni的单项潜在生态风险程度均为轻微,综合潜在生态风险处于轻微等级.     

页岩气压裂作业人因失误结构化辨识方法研究

为提高页岩气压裂作业人因失误辨识结果的全面性和针对性,建立一种结构化的人因失误辨识方法。通过概括辨识阶段的作业流程,建立作业人员行为模型,概述作业人员的行为阶段。利用筛选出的引导词辨识行为阶段人因失误。将该方法应用于页岩气压裂过程的替液阶段。结果表明,用引导词能明确辨识方向,减少头脑风暴时间以及对专家知识的依赖;辨识过程的动态调整能改善认知可靠性,使更多人因失误模式(与传统CREAM方法相比)被辨识出来。     

地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。     

Deflagration to detonation transition in a vapour cloud explosion in open but congested space: Large scale test

The paper reviews large scale experiments with various fuels in air where successful deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) took place. This includes a recent experiment disclosed in the Buncefield R&D program, where DDT developed in the propane/air mixture. The DDT occurred in branches of deciduous trees in a premixed stagnant mixture. An internal R&D investigation programme was initiated to better understand the phenomena. A large scale experiment in an open space with ethane air mixture is presented in the paper. The premixed mixture was ignited at the edge of the congested three-dimensional rigs which consisted of vertical and horizontal pipes. After ignition, the flame accelerated in the congestion and transitioned to detonation at the end of congestion. Stable detonation propagated through the remaining open and uncongested space.The flame acceleration process leading to DDT is scale dependent. It also depends on many parameters leading to a large investigation array and, significant cost. However, such R&D efforts aimed toward a safer plant design, i.e. the prevention of occurrence of a major accident, are a small fraction of a real accident cost.