矿山环境重金属污染的事故树分析

有色金属矿产资源的开采与利用过程不可避免地伴随着矿物化学组成和物理状态变化、重金属污染向生态环境释放和迁移的过程。笔者从采矿过程的分析入手,应用事故树分析方法研究了矿山环境重金属污染物来源,结果表明矿山环境重金属污染物的主要来源是尾矿库,因此矿山环境重金属释放迁移规律和重金属的污染治理与控制研究重点应针对尾矿库。     

起重作业挤压事故的分析与预防

分析了起重作业挤压事故的成因,并利用事故树分析方法分析了可能造成起重作业挤压事故的具体因素,对导致起重作业挤压事故重要度进行了排序分析.最后根据挤压事故原因提出了起重作业挤压事故的预防措施,主要包括起重机管理,人员的管理和培训,环境的管理,规章制度的建立.     

企业安全生产的成本构成及模型分析

企业对安全生产成本控制的合理与否直接影响着企业的经济效益和安全生产状况.从安全成本的构成模型出发,对我国安全生产成本进行了定性分析,并结合模型分析的结果提出了控制措施.     

郯庐断裂带皖东段与滁河断裂构造及地震活动相关性研究

郯庐断裂带皖东段与滁河断裂所处区域 ,深、浅部构造特征及动力学环境相似 ,浅层构造均为断陷盆地 ,深部构造均为地幔异常区 ,浅层构造与深部构造之间呈镜象对应关系 ,说明两者构造具有成因上的联系。在郯庐断裂带皖东段与滁河断裂上 ,现代地震活动在时间和空间上具有明显的周期性、丛集性、迁移性及相关性 ,主要表现在 :每当郯庐断裂带皖东段地震活跃幕中主要地震丛 (ML≥ 3.0 )发生前后 13年 ,相应在滁河断裂带上也会发生类似级别的地震。     

A geological analysis for the environmental cause of human birth defects based on GIS

Previous studies on birth defects risk from environmental factors focused on the dose–response relationship of exposure to toxic materials. The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between the geological background and occurrence ratio of neural tube defect (NTD) birth defects. Bayesian method was used to adjust the occurrence of NTD birth defects; both parametric and nonparametric statistical methods were used to quantify the correlation between geological background and human birth defects risk. At the two limbs of anticline rock, whose kernel stratum is of Archean kingdom, age of rock strata showed significant positive correlation to the occurrence of birth defects risk. In the region inside 4?km around the fault zone, the occurrence ratio of NTD birth defects is the highest; and decreases when the buffer distance increases. In macro spatial scale, geological background has a significant correlation to the birth defects risk with people residing near the fault zone having higher risk to beget babies with birth defects.     

基于KPLS数据重构的非线性过程监测与故障辨识

为适应快速变化的化工产品需求,过程工业逐步向柔性生产发展,使得间歇过程的应用日益广泛。这一类工艺过程具有动态和非线性的特征,过程故障带来的工艺波动和安全风险是较为突出的挑战。采用基于核函数的偏最小二乘方法,在高维特征空间提取特征变量,这些变量包含了生产过程的非线性结构特征,也反应了过程工况的模式特征。针对传统线性方法存在的故障漏报等问题,利用核函数技巧,在特征空间进行数据重构,进而计算统计监控指标SPE,并通过对SPE的在线监测实现更加有效地故障辨识。本方法针对标准非线性测试对象进行了过程监测,实现结果充分说明了方法的有效性。     

碳电极直径与负载特性对故障电弧断路器响应时间影响研究

为解决故障电弧断路器动作响应滞后、效率低等问题,基于电气火灾多发原因与防控实验装置、功率因素可调式负载柜,搭建故障电弧模拟实验台,研究故障电弧断路器响应时间影响因素,利用功率分析仪统计断路器响应时间。研究结果表明：纯电阻电路中,断路器响应时间随碳电极直径增大而缩短;在负载功率P=800,2 000 W条件下,碳电极直径D≥2 mm时,断路器瞬时保护率达100%;负载功率P=3 200 W时,断路器瞬时保护率小于50%;碳电极直径D为1,2 mm时,断路器最佳负载功率保护区间分别为[1 200,1 600] W,[800,2 400] W,碳电极直径为2 mm的保护区间范围较宽,安全可靠性更高;感性电路中,断路器响应时间随功率因数减小而延迟,功率因数对断路器动作响应时间的影响随负载功率增加而降低。研究结果可为故障电弧断路器响应时间的设定提供参考。     

大型宾馆火灾事故树分析

采用安全系统工程方法,对大型宾馆火灾事故进行事故树分析,并绘制出大型宾馆火灾事故树分析图,直观地表现了各可能导致顶上事件发生的基本事件及其逻辑关系;通过对FTA的定性分析,得出了最小径集和结构重要度,指明了预防事故发生的可能途径;在对各途径作出比较之后,确定了大型宾馆火灾事故的预防措施.     

Evaluation of the safety performance of highway alignments based on fault tree analysis and safety boundaries

Objectives: To overcome the limitations of previous highway alignment safety evaluation methods, this article presents a highway alignment safety evaluation method based on fault tree analysis (FTA) and the characteristics of vehicle safety boundaries, within the framework of dynamic modeling of the driver–vehicle–road system.

Methods: Approaches for categorizing the vehicle failure modes while driving on highways and the corresponding safety boundaries were comprehensively investigated based on vehicle system dynamics theory. Then, an overall crash probability model was formulated based on FTA considering the risks of 3 failure modes: losing steering capability, losing track-holding capability, and rear-end collision.

Results: The proposed method was implemented on a highway segment between Bengbu and Nanjing in China. A driver–vehicle–road multibody dynamics model was developed based on the 3D alignments of the Bengbu to Nanjing section of Ning-Luo expressway using Carsim, and the dynamics indices, such as sideslip angle and, yaw rate were obtained. Then, the average crash probability of each road section was calculated with a fixed-length method. Finally, the average crash probability was validated against the crash frequency per kilometer to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the regression analysis and correlation analysis indicated good consistency between the results of the safety evaluation and the crash data and that it outperformed the safety evaluation methods used in previous studies.

Conclusion: The proposed method has the potential to be used in practical engineering applications to identify crash-prone locations and alignment deficiencies on highways in the planning and design phases, as well as those in service.     

含硫油品储罐自燃事故的模糊综合评判

通过分析含硫油品储罐自燃事故发生的主要影响因素,建立含硫油品储罐自燃事故的事故树图,在此基础上构建了自燃事故的模糊综合评判模型,采用线性分布函数的隶属函数,对腐蚀产物引起的自燃事故进行分析与评价.