事故树分析系统设计与老空区透水分析

通过计算机编程,开发了事故树分析系统,可以方便、准确地进行事故树分析计算,规范地绘制事故树图形,提高了事故分析的速度和质量;利用该系统,对老空区积水透水事故进行事故树分析,并根据分析结果,提出了该类透水事故的预防方案。     

基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价

为对天然气管道进行有效的风险评估,提出基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价法。利用故障树分析法(FTA)确定天然气管道不同时间空间下的主要风险因素,实时更新风险指标体系;同时引入变权综合原理,建立权重跟随指标值动态变化的变权赋值模型;然后对天然气管道进行综合评定,确定管道当前状态的风险程度。以陕京3线中某管段为例进行分析,得出该管段当前风险等级为中等,在后期运行中应被重点监控。变权赋值与动态指标体系的结合使该方法能实时反映管道风险状况,并适用于天然气管线各段。     

事故树分析法在LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故中的应用

LPG(液化石油气)属于危险化学品之一,LPG储罐发生火灾爆炸的机率大,造成的损失比较严重,故对其火灾爆炸事故进行研究具有重要意义。LPG储罐爆炸根据其发生机理分为化学爆炸(燃爆)和物理爆炸两种模式。本文通过对LPG储罐燃爆﹑物理爆炸两类事故进行系统分析,建立了以LPG储罐燃爆、物理爆炸为顶事件的事故树。通过对其事故树的定性分析,得到了影响顶事件的各个最小割(径)集。通过计算底事件的结构重要度,确定了影响LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故的主要因素,并提出了相应的改进措施,进而提高LPG储罐的安全性和运行可靠性。     

沂沭断裂带垂直形变特征与异常分析

利用跨断层水准测量资料,结合长水准测量成果,重点分析了沂沭断裂带及其附近地区垂直形变特征及本区中强地震前异常形态。结果表明：沂沭带附近的地壳形变明显受新构造活动的控制,断层的最大垂直运动速率为０５０ｍｍ／ａ,沂沭带断层垂直运动平均速率合成值约为０３４ｍｍ／ａ,现今总体活动水平较低;沂沭带北段及北西向断裂近期呈反向运动,南段呈继承性构造运动,部分测点在本区中等及中强地震前异常较典型,主要异常形态为“Ｕ”或“Ｎ”型。     

采动影响下断层滑移失稳研究

为研究采动影响下活动断层的滑移情况,以抚顺矿区老虎台矿为背景,建立了采动条件下覆岩运动的突变力学模型,确定了断层发生滑动的必要条件;运用UDEC数值模拟软件对工作面开采条件下断层活动进行分析,现场工业性试验对断层活动进行监测和验证。结果表明,断层失稳的必要条件为刚度值k≤1,刚度比随着开采深度的增加而逐渐降低;当弹性段采出厚度大于85 m时,F25断层具备了发生滑动的必要条件,易发生冲击地压。83003工作面开采后,F25断层下盘位移基本不变,上盘位移活动幅度较大,最大位移达到了5~7m;锚索测力计的应力变化与断层活动具有较大的相关性,当锚索测力计数值突变时,表明断层已经活动,锚索测力计数值突变越大,预示冲击地压和矿震能量越大。     

焦作地区岩溶地下水铬(Ⅵ)污染过程研究

岩溶地下水是焦作市主要饮用水水源,受人类活动影响,局部地下水中铬(Ⅵ)浓度逐渐升高。利用氢氧稳定同位素在辨析不同水体水力联系方面的原理,结合不同水体的水化学组成,判定岩溶地下水中铬(Ⅵ)污染来源。结果表明,研究区岩溶地下水铬(Ⅵ)含量升高与粉煤灰有关,主要污染过程为含铬粉煤灰的灰水渗滤液借助凤凰山断层破碎带进入岩溶地下水G6,同时进入下游岩溶地下水G1,泉水、大气降水、河水以及土壤等不会引起岩溶地下水铬(Ⅵ)含量升高。     

地面爆燃式电打火装置在火炬上的应用

介绍了地面爆燃式电打火装置的结构及安装要点,实践表明该装置点火效率高、故障率低、便于检修,非常适合石油化工行业的火炬打火系统。     

井架背车液压系统故障诊断与处理

介绍了井架背车液压系统常见故障现场快速诊断方法,列举了常见故障处理实例及故障诊断效果。     

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey

Objective: Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage–only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey.

Methods: In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle–vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R).

Results: It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios.

Conclusions: This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.     

基于故障树分析法研究变电站检修触电事故防控

对变电站检修工作人员触电事故进行了故障树分析,通过定性分析,得出最小割集和结构重要度,并提出变电站检修触电事故的预防控制措施。