关中盆地地-气系统灾变的节律性及耦合关系

依据丰富而系统的历史资料，建立了关中盆地历史地震与旱涝灾害两个数据库，分析了近2000a来地-气系统环境灾变的节律性及耦合关系。结果发现：(1)地震活动具有一定的节律性，并先后经历了3个平静期和3个活跃期，平静期与活跃期呈交替出现，具有3～4个世纪的周期；(2)较为严重的干旱、洪涝灾害亦具有一定的周期性，先后经历了2个洪涝期和3个干旱期，其较长尺度的转换周期亦为3～4个世纪；(3)在世纪尺度上，地震活动与旱涝灾害具有某种耦合关系，表现为在地震活动的活跃期，旱涝灾害呈多发性，而在地震活动的平静期，旱涝灾害较为稀少；(4)以较大级别的地震群发为节点，地气系统环境灾变的耦合关系具有先旱→后震→再涝的演替特征。基于上述事实，提出了一个地-气系统环境灾变的概念模型，对地震与旱涝灾害的耦合关系给出了确定性解释。为关中盆地世纪尺度的环境灾变群发性预测提供了新的依据。     

基于GIS技术的县市级防汛信息系统

防汛减灾是县市水利部门的重点工作。以临海市防汛决策指挥系统为实例，探讨了基于GIS技术，采用Client／Server模式的防汛信息系统的解决方案。根据防汛业务管理工作的实际要求，分析了系统的属性和空间数据库的存储结构和建库方法，实现了防汛信息系统的各主要模块及其功能。     

MARSH DEVELOPMENT AT RESTORATION SITES ON THE WHITE MOUNTAIN APACHE RESERVATION,ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: To prioritize sites for riparian restoration, resource managers need to understand how recovery processes vary within landscapes. Complex relationships between watershed conditions and riparian development make it difficult to predict the outcomes of restoration treatments in the semiarid Southwest. Large floods in 1993 scoured riparian areas in the Carrizo watershed on the White Mountain Apache Reservation in east‐central Arizona. We evaluated recovery at three of these sites using repeated photographs and measurements of channel cross sections and stream‐side vegetation along permanent transects. The sites were mapped as lying on the same soil type, had similar streamside vegetative communities, and were similarly treated through livestock exclusion and supplemental seeding. However, the sites and individual reaches within the sites followed strikingly different development paths. Dramatic recovery occurred at a perennial reach where cover of emergent wetland plants increased from 4.7 percent (standard error = 0.8 percent) in October 1995 to 55.5 percent (standard error = 2.7 percent) in September 2001. At several other reaches, geologic and hydro geomorphic characteristics of the sites limited inputs of fine sediment or surface water, resulting in modest or negligible increases in emergent cover. Recovery efforts for highly valued marshlands in this region should prioritize perennial reaches in low gradient valleys where salty sediments are abundant.     

汶川地震后绵竹、都江堰市房屋震害调查与分析

依据笔者在四川省绵竹市、都江堰市参加建设部组织的汶川地震震后房屋应急评估所取得的资料,对该次地震造成的建筑结构破坏进行了分析,从砖砌体结构、混凝土框架结构、构造问题以及设计与施工缺陷4个方面,论述了各种破坏的形态与成因,讨论了现行设计方法中存在的问题,提出了相应的改进建议。主要结论有:砌体结构的底层墙体强度不足、开间过大、形体复杂是导致其破坏的重要原因,在设计中,应适当提高砌体结构底层墙体的强度,控制房屋的开间,加强形体变化部位;砌体结构的窗下墙应作为连接墙肢的连梁考虑,可以将其设计成抗震设防的第一道防线;框架结构设计中,应考虑框架与填充墙的相互作用,考虑楼梯斜梁或斜板参与结构的整体受力;在现行规范要求的基础上,要适当增加框架柱的截面,节点附近的箍筋应采用焊接封闭箍或螺旋箍;应加强非结构构件的连接与锚固;对乡村房屋建设应予以监管,杜绝结构体系不明确的房屋出现。     

上海降雨特征及其对城市水情灾害的影响

利用上海降雨资料,分析了上海汛期降雨的变化和最大年日雨量极值的累积分布规律,近期降雨空间分布、暴雨频度和强降雨特征,及气候因子对水情灾害的影响。结果显示,汛期雨量大小对水情灾害影响较为复杂,大暴雨或强降雨是造成水情灾害的重要原因。初步探讨和提出了气候因子的灾害危险评估方法,并对上海各区(县)近期的暴雨灾害影响进行了危险评估;暴雨对上海地区水情灾害影响差异明显,崇明、市中心区和浦东新区暴雨灾害危险较大,南部地区的青浦、金山、奉贤和松江区危险较小。     

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment,Kenya

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km²) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on‐going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.     

Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh

This paper explores peoples' indigenous survival strategies and assesses variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood‐prone villages in Bangladesh. It reveals that people continuously battle against flood vulnerability in accordance with their level of exposure and abilities, with varied strategies employed at different geophysical locations. The paper reports that people in an area with low flooding and with better socioeconomic circumstances are more likely to cope with impacts compared to people in areas with high and sudden flooding. Similarly, households' ability to cope varies depending on people's socioeconomic conditions, such as education, income and occupation. Although floods in Bangladesh generate socioeconomic misery and cause damage to the environment, health and infrastructure, people's indigenous coping strategies have helped them to reduce significantly their vulnerability. Such flood‐mitigating strategies should be well recognised and emphasised further via proper dissemination of information through an early‐warning system and subsequently external assistance.     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例

影响洪涝灾害恢复力的因素众多且相互关联,识别和区分这些影响因素,找到因素间互相影响程度和因果关系,对于明确洪涝灾害恢复力关键因素,快速找到需要改善的因素具有重要意义。通过分析灾害恢复力的内涵,从自然维、社会维、经济维、技术维、管理维5个维度构建区域洪涝灾害恢复力的影响因素指标体系,应用DEMATEL方法分析区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素之间的关系,并以巢湖流域为例凝练出适合该区域的洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,结果表明,一级指标中自然维、经济维对其他因素影响最为显著,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、土地因子、地形因子对其他影响因素的影响最大;而一级指标中经济维和社会维与其他因素关系最为密切,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、区域经济实力、土地因子处于核心的位置。从整体影响输出上看,一级指标中原因因素共有2个,分别为自然维、经济维,且以经济维为最,二级指标中原因因素有11个,涉及五个维度,包括所有自然维中因素,并以地形因子、政府财政支撑能力、灾害政策法规为重。一级指标中结果因素有3个,分别为管理维、技术维、社会维;二级指标中共有12个,以管理维中的因素为主,相比于原因因素,通过改善结果因素可以更直接的提高区域洪涝灾害恢复力的水平。