安康水库分级超蓄的洪水资源化方法及其风险

汛限水位动态控制是水库洪水资源化的一种重要策略,其核心是在合理权衡风险和效益这一对矛盾的基础上确定可行的水库超汛限水位调度方案。为实现相对较大效益的同时降低水库防洪风险,考虑利用流域降雨预报信息,采用预泄能力约束法,以不同的降雨预报量级为依据,提出分级超蓄的洪水资源化方法,并结合安康水库实例,求得其基于 24 h 小雨和无雨预报的分级超蓄上限分别为326 m和 328 m。通过风险分析得知：在不考虑降雨预报信息的情况下,水库超蓄上限不宜超过 327.5 m;而依据 24 h 降雨预报信息的水库超蓄风险小到可以忽略。最后,应用该超蓄方案对实际洪水进行调度,实现了在减少弃水量069亿m3的同时,增加发电收入约361万元人民币.     

Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.     

洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害演变趋势及其与El Nio事件关系

为分析洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害在千年尺度序列上的演变趋势,采用统计历史洪涝记录的方法,分析了气候变化背景下洪涝灾害的响应过程,探讨了洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害同El Nio事件的关系。结果表明：近1 000 a来洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的频度总体是趋于上升的,这种变化趋势同气候变化的趋势是一致的。研究结果显示：公元1000~1400年洪涝记录偏少,同我国东部地区尤其是中世纪暖期出现的一次200 a以上的干旱化过程有较好的对应性。1400~1800年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发期,这一事实同我国东部1550~1850年小冰期期间总体偏湿的环境特征相一致。分析洪涝灾害变化同El Nio事件对应性关系表明：在El Nio事件年及其次年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发年份。这可能是由于El Nio事件通过改变西太平洋副高的强度与位置,以及大气环流形势而引起的降水异常所致。了解洪泽湖流域洪涝的演变趋势及其同El Nio的关系对于长期防灾减灾策略具有重要的参考意义。     

Analysis of Damaging Hydrogeological Events: The Case of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

A period of bad weather conditions due to prolonged intense rainfall and strong winds can trigger landslides, floods, secondary floods (accumulation of rain on surfaces with low permeability), and sea storms, causing damage to humans and infrastructure. As a whole, these periods of bad weather and triggered phenomena can be defined as damaging hydrogeological events (DHEs). We define a methodological approach based on seven simple indexes to analyze such events. The indexes describe the return period (T) and trend of rainfall, the extent of hit areas, and the level of damages; they can be considered attributes of georeferenced features and analyzed with GIS techniques. We tested our method in an Italian region frequently hit by DHEs. In a period of 10 years, 747 damaging phenomena (landslides, 43%; floods, 38%) and 94 DHEs have been classified. The road network and housing areas are the most frequently damaged elements, threatened by all types of damaging phenomena. T classes are almost in accordance with the level of damage. These results can be used to outline warning levels for civil protection purposes, to forecast the areas most likely to be hit and the potential ensuing damage, to disseminate information concerning vulnerable areas, and to increase people’s awareness of risk.     

Flood risk management in Dutch local spatial planning practices

Spatial planning is increasingly regarded as an important instrument to reduce flood consequences. Nevertheless, there are very few studies that show why local planning authorities do or do not systematically use spatial planning in advance to mitigate flood risks. This paper explores flood reduction strategies in local planning practices in the Netherlands. It also explores why spatial planning was or was not used to reduce flood consequences. The arguments for the use or non-use of planning mainly referred to requirements from other governmental bodies and the perceived role and the related responsibility of local planning authorities, previous disaster experience, and previous experience with spatial planning for flood risk management.     

基于GIS淹没模型的城市道路内涝灾害风险区划研究

在求取襄阳中心城区重现期雨量与可抽排雨量的基础上,采用基于GIS暴雨洪涝淹没模型计算不同重现期致灾雨量的淹没水深和范围;依据城市内涝对道路的实际影响,制作城市道路内涝灾害风险区划图。结果表明,该方法能够直观表达研究区域内不同雨量阈值的内涝灾害淹没风险分布,定量评估淹没水深、淹没范围。同时给出了城市道路内涝灾害风险区划图,结合城市道路信息,准确定位高风险易涝街区,为政府部门决策提供科学依据。     

上海地区洪涝致灾因子复合概率及未来变化分析

根据上海地区三阶段(1970-2004年,2020-2054年和2060-2094年)四要素(降水、吴淞口风速、太湖流域面雨量、吴淞口潮位)提取年极值时间序列,采用GEV分布首先开展"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子气候变化分析,结果显示:"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子年极值受气候变化影响均呈增加趋势;进而基于Copula联合函数中的三维...     

Uncertainty Reduction of the Flood Stage Forecasting Using Neural Networks Model1

Abstract: The Elman Discrete Recurrent Neural Networks Model (EDRNNM), which is one of the special types of neural networks model, is developed and applied for the flood stage forecasting at the Musung station (No. 1) of the Wi‐stream catchment, which is one of the International Hydrological Program representative basins, Korea. A total of 135 different training patterns, which involve hidden nodes, standardization process, data length, and lead‐time, are selected for the minimization of the architectural uncertainty. The model parameters, such as optimal connection weights and biases, are estimated during the training performance of the EDRNNM, and we apply them to evaluate the validation performance of the EDRNNM. Sensitivity analysis is used to reduce the uncertainty of input data information of the EDRNNM. As the results of sensitivity analysis, the Improved EDRNNM consists of four input nodes resulting from the exclusion of Dongkok station (No.5) in initial five input nodes group of the EDRNNM. The accuracy of flood stage forecasting during the training and validation performances of the Improved EDRNNM remains the same as that of the EDRNNM. The Improved EDRNNM, therefore, gives highly reliable flood stage forecasting. The best optimal EDRNNM, so called the Improved EDRNNM, is determined by elimination of the uncertainties of architectural and input data information in this study. Consequently, we can avoid unnecessary data collection and operate the flood stage forecasting system economically.     

洪水灾害的遥感监测分析系统研究

给出了洪水灾害的遥感监测分析系统,该系统利用遥感信息资料,应用遥感图像处理软件为主要工具,辅助地理信息,分析洪水水情,确定洪灾量级、危害区域及其土地利用类型等,并可比较真实地再现洪灾场景,为防洪规划提供可靠的辅助决策依据。     

浙江省梅汛期洪涝灾情分析和预测

通过所构设的雨涝强度、雨涝影响面积等统计量来估计浙江省梅汛期的灾情,有较高的准确率,能估计出极端情况,为灾害评估工作提供了新的思路。