尾矿库调洪演算的时变分析模型及应用

为有效指导尾矿库汛期防洪安全工作,基于时变分析理论,结合尾矿库调洪演算的基本原理,建立尾矿库调洪演算的时变分析模型,研究某尾矿库在200年一遇洪水的防洪标准下的调洪演算。结果表明:该尾矿库的最小安全超高和最小干滩长度小于规范值;洪水过程线、库水位时变曲线和泄流量时变曲线具有相似的特征,均表现出显著的时变规律特征;最高洪水位与最大泄流量滞后于最大洪峰流量0.5 h,库水位在洪水结束后12.8 h恢复到正常水位。该尾矿库的防洪能力满足规范要求,库水位时变曲线和泄流量时变曲线相对于洪水过程线表现出一定的滞后效应。     

Is there a trade-off between households’ precautions,mitigations and public protection for flood risk?

This paper evaluates willingness-to-pay (WTP) for flood insurance and floodgate installation in Tainan, Taiwan, and finds that household flood precaution (observing the water level) has a minor effect in terms of increasing the WTP for flood insurance, rather than decreasing it. The reason for this is that people who have public flood protection nearby do not lower their WTP for floodgate and insurance, and those who live near the water source of floods and exhibit precautionary behavior have higher risk perceptions and intend to pay more. The adopted mitigation (having sandbags or other barriers) will not affect the intention to further mitigate or buy insurance. This also means that adverse selection in relation to flood insurance is not serious in the flood-prone area of Tainan. Households may be aware of the limitation of public flood protection though the precautionary behavior, and found that flood insurance can compensate for most of the flood damage.     

上海市居民对城市暴雨内涝的风险感知与适应行为研究

气候变化背景下,适应城市极端天气风险不仅是政府的责任,也越来越需要公众参与。然而,对风险感知、适应感知和适应行为响应的影响因素,以及三者之间的内在联系还缺乏系统认识。通过问卷调研上海市居民发现：(1)风险感知可以促进适应感知,二者均与收入和教育水平等显著正相关。(2)与关注预警信息和使用防水防潮材料等个人适应行为相比,居民对集体行为的响应程度更高,如增加绿地面积和提高监测预警准确性等。(3)适应行为的影响因素可归纳为：信息通达性、社区归属感、适应意愿、适应激励、风险感知和适应感知,其中信息通达性和适应激励是显著提高个人适应行为的关键因素。     

发达国家环境健康损害赔偿模式对中国的启示

随着经济的发展,中国环境污染事故也到了一个高发期.如何构建适合中国国情的健康损害赔偿保障体系,对贯彻落实环保法的污染责任险至关重要.分析了发达国家现有公害病的补偿资金来源与形式,将其分为环境责任险、环境赔偿基金、环境税收、社会捐赠等,并对以上健康损害赔偿模式是否适用于中国进行了分析.研究发现,相比于发达国家,中国目前尚未建立完整的环境污染导致健康损害赔偿的经济保障体系.虽然中国在环境责任险领域已有一定的基础,但真正涉及健康损害的责任险工作却十分薄弱,其它健康损害赔偿的经济保障措施,如用于支付健康损害的环境税收体系、环境赔偿基金、社会捐赠体系等尚不完善.借鉴发达国家的经验,就中国现阶段亟待开展的健康损害赔偿模式进行剖析,以期为探索适用于中国的健康损害赔偿保障体系提供参考.     

渭河下游洪水灾害的降水危险性评估与区划

大气降水的不规则运动是引发洪水灾害的重要因素.通过对"小洪水、大灾情"特性显著的渭河下游洪泛区的洪水特性、降水规律以及二者的关系进行分析,利用插值计算法进行降水量和降水变率空间分析,评估并区划了研究区汛期洪灾风险的降水危险性.主要结论为:①季节性的强降水过程是引发渭河下游洪水灾害的重要因素,连续暴雨或大范围暴雨往往带来洪水灾害;②汛期降雨量呈现出显著的南多北少特征,且从东南到西北依次递减,咸阳、高陵县、大荔县西北部降水量偏低,而秦岭北麓的华县、华阴及西安市区降水相对丰富;③汛期降水变率虽然呈现出相间分布的特征,但降水量变化较大的区域(西安市区、华县以及潼关县东南部)都集中于南部的秦岭北麓;④根据降水量越大,影响度越高,降水变率越大,降水量越不稳定,洪水危险性越高的原则,进行洪灾的降水危险性评估与区划,结果显示降水危险性较高与较低区域呈环状相间分布,危险性较高的区域更多地分布于渭河干流南岸.     

Proposal for a quantitative index of flood disasters

Drawing on calculations of wind scale and earthquake magnitude, this paper develops a new quantitative method for measuring flood magnitude and disaster intensity. Flood magnitude is the quantitative index that describes the scale of a flood; the flood's disaster intensity is the quantitative index describing the losses caused. Both indices have numerous theoretical and practical advantages with definable concepts and simple applications, which lend them key practical significance.     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

Regeneration of Native Trees in the Presence of Invasive Saltcedar in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico

Abstract:  Many riparian zones in the Sonoran Desert have been altered by elimination of the normal flood regime; such changes to the flow regime have contributed to the spread of saltcedar ( Tamarix ramosissma Ledeb.), an exotic, salt-tolerant shrub. It has been proposed that reestablishment of a natural flow regime on these rivers might permit passive restoration of native trees, without the need for aggressive saltcedar clearing programs. We tested this proposition in the Colorado River delta in Mexico, which has received a series of large-volume water releases from U.S. dams over the past 20 years. We mapped the vegetation of the delta riparian corridor through ground and aerial surveys (1999–2002) and satellite imagery (1992–2002) and related vegetation changes to river flood flows and fire events. Although saltcedar is still the dominant plant in the delta, native cottonwood (  Populus fremontii S. Wats.) and willow ( Salix gooddingii C. Ball) trees have regenerated multiple times because of frequent flood releases from U.S. dams since 1981. Tree populations are young and dynamic (ages 5–10 years). The primary cause of tree mortality between floods is fire. Biomass in the floodplain, as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index on satellite images, responds positively even to low-volume (but long-duration) flood events. Our results support the hypothesis that restoration of a pulse flood regime will regenerate native riparian vegetation despite the presence of a dominant invasive species, but fire management will be necessary to allow mature tree stands to develop.     

从地学规律和可持续发展看长江分蓄洪区建设

分蓄洪区是平原防洪的一种重要措施。20世纪50年代，我国在长江中游地区共规划分蓄洪区14处，其中荆江分洪区、洪湖分蓄洪区和杜家台分洪区为国家确定的重点蓄滞洪区。随着长江上游三峡等一系列大型电站的兴建，中游堤防加固工程的实施，长江中游仍需要200×10\+8m\+3分蓄洪区。基于地学规律和长江中游目前的 防洪形势，从有效的防洪功能和可持续发展相结合考虑，建议取消荆江分洪区和其它一般分蓄洪区，仅保留洪湖分蓄洪区和杜家台分洪区，重点建设洪湖分蓄洪区。建议按照“梯级化”和 “垦殖和养殖区”进行洪湖分蓄洪区规划和建设。     

湖南省水旱灾害及其时空分布

利用公元２世纪以来的水旱的灾害资料，分析了湖南省水旱灾害的成因及其时空分布，并重点研究了１９８０年以来的演变趋势，从领导，生态宣传，绿色工程，人口控制和水利投入五个方面提出防治对策。