Using Steady‐State Backwater Analysis to Predict Inundated Area from National Water Model Streamflow Simulations

National Water Model (NWM) simulates the hydrologic cycle and produces streamflow forecasts for 2.7 million reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset for continental United States (U.S.). NWM uses Muskingum–Cunge channel routing, which is based on the continuity equation. However, the momentum equation also needs to be considered to obtain more accurate estimates of streamflow and stage in rivers, especially for applications such as flood‐inundation mapping. Here, we used a steady‐state backwater version of Simulation Program for River NeTworks (SPRNT) model. We evaluated SPRNT’s and NWM’s abilities to predict inundated area for the record flood of Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. The Neuse River experienced record‐breaking floods and was well‐documented by U.S. Geological Survey. Streamflow simulations from NWM retrospective analysis were used as input for the SPRNT simulation. Retrospective NWM discharge predictions were converted to stage. The stages (from both SPRNT and NWM) were utilized to produce flood‐inundation maps using the Height Above Nearest Drainage method which uses the local relative heights to find out the local draining potentials and provide spatial representation of inundated area. The inundated‐area accuracies for NWM and SPRNT (based on comparison to a remotely sensed dataset) were 65.1% and 67.6%, respectively. These results show using steady‐state SPRNT results in a modest improvement of inundation‐forecast accuracy compared to NWM.     

Optimal Control Models and Elicitation of Attitudes towards Climate Damages

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a pure preference for current climate regime and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages.     

On the plausible association between environmental conditions and human eye damage

The increase in solar ultraviolet radiation can have various direct and indirect effects on human health, like the incidence of ocular damage. Data of eye damage in residents of three suburban regions in Greece and in two groups of monks/nuns and fishermen are examined here. The statistics performed on these data provides new information about the plausible association between increased levels of solar ultraviolet radiation, air-pollution at ground level, and the development of ocular defects.     

Study on the damage of the “91.7” rainstorm in Sihudrainage area with remote sensing application technique

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Differential Impacts of Flood Hazards Among the Street Children,the Urban Poor and Residents of Wealthy Neighborhoods in Metro Manila,Philippines

This paper presents thedifferential impacts of flood hazards amongstreet children, the urban poor andresidents of wealthy neighborhoods in MetroManila, Philippines. It argues that beingpoor is not the only reason why certainsectors are more vulnerable to floods orany environmental hazards – spatialisolation and lack of participation indecision making intensify their presentand future vulnerability, as well. Archival research, interviews, focusedgroup discussion, participant observationand surveys of populations at risk areemployed to delineate the flood experiencesand coping strategies of street childrenand residents of poor urban settlements andwealthy neighborhoods in Metro Manila atthe household and community levels. Theconcept of entitlement, the ContextualHazards Model, and the Access Model areused in the data analysis andinterpretation. Several policyrecommendations on hazard management anddisaster mitigation are identified toreduce flood losses in Metro Manila.     

长江中游江西江段防洪干堤基础水患灾害致灾机制分析

江西长江防洪干堤修筑在九江－黄梅平原第上系冲积层之上。作者通过对长江沿岸（江西段南岸）环境地质调查，依据大量的钻探工程资料，基本查明了防洪干堤基础工程地质条件，并对于堤形成水患灾害的类型、分布特征和致灾机制进行了综合分析，从而为今后防洪减灾提供了基础性地质依据。     

Marginal cost pricing for coal fired electricity in coastal cities of China: the case of Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen City,China

By developing a GDMOD model to estimate the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation,this project provides a detailed analysis of the damages and costs caused by different pollutants at varying distances from the Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen,China.The major findings of this study can be summarized that(1) environmental damages caused by electricity production are large and are mainly imposed on regions far away from the electricity plant;(2)air pollution is most significant contributor to the totat damages,and SO2,NOx,and particulate matter are the three major pollutants with highest damages;(3)the damages caused per unit of particulate.NOx,and SO2 emissions are much higher than pollution treatment and prevention costs.The research results of this project showed that China needs to have a more effective levy system on SO2,and a more manageable electricity tariff mechanism to internalize the environmental externalities,The results have also implications for pollution control strategies,compensation schemes as well as emission trading arrangements.     

松嫩流域特大洪灾的醒示:湿地功能的再认识

分析了１９９８年松嫩流域特大洪水发生与湿地丧失和退化的关系,根据湿地所具有的多种功能和效益,提出了松嫩流域水资源管理和防洪体系建设对策。近半个世纪以来,由于人口增长,人水争地,松嫩流域内湿地丧失达７０％,湿地质量也发生明显的退化,使本区湿地具有的抵御洪水、调节径流、蓄洪防旱、控制污染、生物多样性保护等方面功能逐渐降低,生态环境趋于恶化。必须从全流域、大系统的角度出发,全面分析上、中、下游的自然、社会、经济条件与湿地的地位,统筹规划,分步实施,封山育林,保持水土,圈地分洪,保护湿地,加固堤防,疏浚河道,整治环境,合理开发,将区域的社会、经济发展建立在可持续的环境基础上。     

洪水等级的划分方法

分析了洪水要素的多样性和洪水的复杂性，提出了利用洪水重现期划分洪水安全度等级和利用标准面积洪峰流量划分洪峰标准等级的两种方法，并对1998年长江流域的洪水等级进行了简要分析。     

突出洪灾事件对新疆潜在气候转型的响应

从新疆近250年来的水文突出事件——洪灾的分析人手，探讨了其与新近提出的可能气候转型期降水变化的联系。结果表明，小冰期末以来新疆存在5个比较明显的重大洪灾时段。每一个时段基本上都对应着降水偏多时期，同时也对应着比较明显的气候转折期，前两次对应气温下降降水减少期，后三次对应气温升高降水增多期。20世纪80年代中期前后，洪灾灾情差异显著。20世纪80年代中期以来新，疆洪水及其灾害事件对气候(降水)变化响应较明显，表现出随着降水的增加，洪灾灾情加重、主要河流洪水洪峰流量突破历史极值的情况。这为气候转型观点的成立提供了一定的依据，并且还初步印证了前人有关气候转型初期自然灾害频发和洪水量级增大的论断。