三峡水库洪水调度对香溪河藻类群落结构的影响

以三峡大坝汛期洪水调度为契机,于2013年7月在香溪河开展原位监测,研究了洪水调度对藻类群落结构的影响.结果显示:在洪水调度期间香溪河水位变动范围是145.63~148.36m,河流中上游平均流速变化幅度小于河口平均流速变化幅度,中上游与河口的平均流速存在显著差异(P<0.05).调度前香溪河的藻类优势类群为蓝藻与硅藻,蓝藻所占比例高于硅藻,调度结束后,中上游水域硅藻占优势,河口区域蓝藻所占比例升高.香溪河水环境特征与藻类群落结构在洪水调度期间发生了显著改变,Shannon-Weaver指数趋于下降.研究结果表明:三峡大坝拦蓄洪水的过程显著改变了香溪河水环境条件,洪水顶托作用首先改变了支流的水文水动力学特征和水质状况,随后藻类群落快速变化响应了这种改变.洪水调度所营造的动态水位使得靠近大坝的支流生境受到强烈冲击和破坏,导致了藻类种类和生物量的变化;由此可见,水库的动态水位可改变支流的藻类群落结构,有助于抑制和延缓支流水华的发生.     

基于多叉树的遍历算法在数字水系拓扑关系计算中的应用

数字水系中各网格或子流域之间的拓扑关系是正确反映洪水演算顺序的重要环节。针对目前流域拓扑关系计算中存在的问题,提出了一种基于多叉树的流域拓扑关系计算方法,该算法将流域中的网格或子流域概化成树形结构的结点图,运用后序遍历递归算法,可快速自动建立反映洪水演算顺序的拓扑结构,解决了复杂流域洪水的演算集成问题,为分布式水文模型的开发研制奠定了坚实的基础,具有较强的实用价值。     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

加强国土规划建设与城市防灾的协同性分析

我国经济持续发展主要体现之一就是大规模的基础工程、道路交通和城市建设。近年来,各种灾害频繁发生,造成了巨大的人身和财产损失,也给"国土规划建设"和"城市防灾规划"工作提出了更迫切更严峻的挑战。我国拥有广大面积的洪泛区[2],洪灾是制约我国社会和经济可持续发展的重要因素;我国又是淡水资源极度缺乏的国家,雨水是淡水,应变灾害为资源。调整区域土地的使用性质和格局,国土规划建设是今后一个时期内科学发展、可持续发展的基础,做好国土规划建设刻不容缓。把国土规划建设结合其它城市灾害提出具体的措施,整体提高我国城市防灾规划水平,以达到节约投入,节省时间,根治水患、长期受益的目的。     

基于DEM的SAR图像洪水水体的提取

星载雷达遥感已广泛应用于洪水灾害的监测和评估中。但是由于其阴影与水体严重混淆 ,使得从雷达图像中提取洪水水体较为困难。为此 ,本文探讨了在地形数据的支持下 ,实现星载SAR图像洪水水体半自动提取的方法。主要包括以下几步 :首先 ,对雷达图像进行滤波处理 ,并将其与地形数据匹配 ,从雷达图像中提取出初步的洪水水体范围 ;其次 ,利用地形数据生成DEM ,并根据雷达图像的成像参数和DEM生成相应的模拟雷达图像 ;最后 ,利用模拟雷达图像上的阴影 ,剔除被误提为洪水水体的阴影 ,从而实现洪水水体的准确提取。研究表明 ,该方法能有效地、半自动地将星载雷达图像上的洪水水体提取出来 ;同时 ,该方法可以用于多种星载多模式的雷达图像的洪水水体的识别提取 ,尤其对含山区的大范围洪水水体的半自动提取 ,更为适用。     

Effects of Flooding on Lead and Cadmium Speciation in Sediments from a Drinking Water Reservoir

Římov water reservoir on the river Malše is the main source of drinking water for the town of České Budějovice and for the majority of inhabitants in the South Bohemian region, Czech Republic. Changes in cadmium and lead contents in bottom sediments before and after an extensive flood on the river Malše in August, 2002 were therefore determined. A five-step sequential extraction procedure was used in order to obtain more detailed information about the influence of the flood on heavy metal retention. In order to determine the mobility of lead and cadmium, the mobility factor (MF) for these heavy metals was calculated. The mobility factor of cadmium showed a significant decrease in the upper parts of the sediment profiles after the flood (e.g., from 59.4% to 49.1%) caused by a release of cadmium especially from the exchangeable fraction. There were no significant changes in the lead mobility factor after the flood, but a decrease of lead concentration in the exchangeable fraction was observed. Presented results show that the flood led to a leaching of the heavy metals present in bottom sediments into the environment.     

Impact of 20 Years of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrology of Streams in the Southeastern United States1

Cruise, James F., Charles A. Laymon, and Osama Z. Al-Hamdan, 2010. Impact of 20 Years of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrology of Streams in the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1159–1170. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00483.x Abstract: Land-cover changes for portions of Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee were estimated for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 using classified Landsat images, and associated with hydrologic indices for 12 watersheds in the region. Rainfall-adjusted mean annual streamflow, an ET proxy (precipitation minus runoff), frequency of inundation above thresholds, and duration of inundation were used to characterize the hydrologic response of the test basins over the two-decade study period. Results indicate that several of the watersheds had undergone significant (>20%) reductions in agricultural land cover with a coincident increase in forested land. Attempts to correlate the hydrologic results with the land-cover changes were only partially successful. Watersheds with the largest land conversion from agriculture to forest (20% or more) did show significant trends in hydrologic indices indicating decreasing streamflow; however, other basins evidenced ambiguous results. The net conclusions of the study are that land-cover effects on hydrologic variables may be nuanced and can sometimes be only indirectly evident, and that a rigorous and detailed land-cover classification effort along with a battery of statistical tests with the same objective may be necessary to uncover these effects.     

湖北省双季稻生长季降水及洪涝变化特征

利用1961～2008年湖北省双季稻区常规气象站资料,统计计算了双季稻产区在早晚稻生长季的降水量、暴雨量、暴雨日数以及洪涝发生次数,揭示了近50 a来双季稻区降水及洪涝的变化特征。结果显示：湖北省双季稻区在早晚稻生长季的降水量都有弱的增加趋势,尤其是鄂东北局部和江汉平原南部;在水稻抽穗扬花至成熟期间,早稻暴雨量大部有不显著的增加趋势,而晚稻则大部为弱减少趋势。早稻生长季内洪涝的发生次数总体呈增加趋势,局部地区严重洪涝发生次数加大;晚稻生长季洪涝总次数有略减少趋势,重度以上洪涝发生很少,但呈略增加趋势     

湘江湖南段洪水灾害综合风险区划

以湘江湖南段河流沿线地区为例,基于自然灾害风险评价的基本原理构建了洪水灾害综合风险值计算模型,即综合危险度和综合社会经济易损度的叠加。利用研究区全球数字高程模型(GDEM)数据、1971~2007年地面气象站观测数据和2008年社会经济统计数据等,借助地理信息系统(GIS)技术和地学方法,得到包含高风险区、较高风险区、中等风险区和较低风险区4个风险等级的洪水灾害综合风险区划图。结果表明：洪水灾害危险度最高的地区集中分布在湘江下游沿岸的湘阴县和长株潭地区;综合社会经济易损度最高的地区为人口密集的市区;湘阴县、长株潭三市和衡阳市市区危险度和易损度均较高,为洪水灾害高风险区。研究结果可为风险管理者和决策者提供量化的理论参考     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.