半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法.松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标,属于半结构决策问题.本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法.基本方法是:将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标;对于定性应用层次分析法,求其评价矩阵;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法,求其评价矩阵;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策.应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中.     

Twenty-five years of HAZOPs

The HAZOP or hazard and operability study was developed by ICI over 25 years ago and is in wide use today throughout the world. The technique is intended to review, in a formalized manner, the design of a system such as a chemical process production plant to detect potential problems in the operation of the system. The system has been extended for use on all types of production, storage and distribution units. Experience in the use of hazard studies has lead to the development of a phased approach with three distinct design phases.     

纺织企业噪声职业危害风险评价及降噪措施

噪声是纺织业的主要职业危害之一。纺织企业生产车间的噪声不仅会影响到纺织生产的效率、工人的工作能力及安全,还会对纺织工人的健康造成危害,甚至导致职业病。以南方某纺织企业为研究对象,对其生产车间的噪声进行了调查测量,并采用职业病作业危害、职业接触风险评估二种评价方法,对该企业各生产工序的噪声职业危害进行风险评价,得出评价结论,从声源、声传播途径、个体防护及管理制度四个方面提出了降噪措施,以便更好地加强防治,预防减少噪声职业危害。     

焦化厂静电与防火防爆技术

从安全生产的角度出发,介绍了焦化厂的生产工序及设备概况;从固体、液体、粉体、气体和人体等五个方面讨论了静电的产生机理以及静电的危害性质;重点探讨了防范静电危害的技术措施,其中分析了静电火灾和爆炸事故发生的条件,并提出了静电危害的防护对策,主要包括:工艺控制法、泄漏法、接地法、中和电荷法、封闭消尖法、防人体静电法。     

市政建设项目危险源评价方法研究与应用

在市政建设行业的安全管理中,危险源辨识与评价一直处于非常重要的地位。本文比较了目前较常用的 LEC 评价法和 MES 评价法优缺点,借鉴 MLEC 评价法相关知识,得出危险源辨识难易程度及防护措施的不同对评价结果的影响,并利用评价得出的危险源危险性以及规范的防护措施来保障市政建设项目的施工安全。     

煤矿水害风险量化评价方法

为提高煤矿防治水管理水平,预防和消除矿井水害,在层次分析法的基础上建立中性值作为参照对象对矿井水害风险进行实时评判的方法。根据《煤矿防治水细则》建立以矿井水文地质类型、矿井涌水量标准分数、突水预兆、采掘面位置、探水结果为准则层的层次结构模型,并对各评价指标赋权。依据制定的水害风险评价指标的评分细则和监测监控数据并结合其权重得到水害评价总得分。通过总得分与中性参照分数比较得出预测结果:水害评价总得分大于中性参照分数,证明水害的威胁小,分数越高越安全;反之则水害的威胁较大,分数越低越危险,这时需要加强防治水的力度,令评价分数管控大于中性参照分数。这种方法依赖于井下监测监控数据进行量化评价,能实时、客观、全面且准确地反映煤矿水害的风险情况。     

汽车用聚合物材料火灾燃烧特性研究

为研究车用聚合物材料的燃烧特性,并对材料的火灾危险性进行全方位的评估,采用锥形量热仪,对汽车上常用的ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡以及无纺布-PVC聚合物材料进行分析表征,测得点燃时间、热释放速率、总热释放量、质量损失速率、烟气生成速率等参数。结果表明:ABS材料的点燃危险性相对最低,PVC革-无纺毡材料相对最高;随热辐射强度的增加,各样品的热释放速率和烟气生成速率明显加快;结合热释放速率峰值、均值和总热释放量可知,无纺布-PVC材料的热危险性相对最低;结合烟气生成速率和总烟释放量可知,ABS材料的发烟危害性相对最高,无纺布-PVC的相对最低;综合比较各样品的FGI和FPI值,安全等级由高到低依次为ABS,PP-PVC,PVC革-无纺毡,无纺布-PVC。     

驾驶人危险感知能力影响因素及干预方式综述

为探究外部干预对驾驶人危险感知能力的作用效果,梳理不同理论描述驾驶人危险感知过程,并总结驾驶人危险感知行为机制;然后,从危险感知行为要素出发,分析驾驶风格、驾驶经验、交通环境、驾驶状态对危险感知能力的影响;其次,介绍5种危险感知能力干预方式的研究成果,归纳各方式特点;最后,从干预效果持续性、评价指标、迁移效应等方面总结...     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.