中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测——基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究

城市是中国碳排放的重要来源,而超大城市的碳达峰研究对国内其他城市和全国能否实现碳达峰目标具有重要的现实意义.以北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津和重庆等6个超大城市为研究对象,能源强度为门限变量,建立门限-STIRPAT模型,首先确定6个超大城市碳排放的驱动因素,然后对27种情景下的各城市碳排放达峰进行预测.研究结果表明:①人口、人均GDP和能源强度对各城市碳排放起到正向促进效应,人口的影响效应最大,其次是能源强度,人均GDP对碳排放的影响最小.②能源强度对二氧化碳排放的影响呈阶段性变化特征.③北京、上海和重庆在高能源强度下降率的情景下,已经达峰;天津、除最宽松的高-高-高情景外的广州和深圳会在2030年前实现达峰.如果能源强度以中速率下降,6个城市碳排放不能保证一定能在2030年前达峰.如果能源强度以低速率下降,6个城市均不能在2030年前达峰.本研究有利于明确超大城市碳排放的影响因素,对其他城市尽快实现碳排放达峰具有借鉴意义,为全国实现碳达峰目标提供可行的研究思路.     

淮河70年治理历程及“十四五”展望

淮河是我国第一条开展全面系统治理的大河。通过分析新中国成立以来淮河流域的旱涝灾害、水体污染事件及治理和管理措施,将淮河的治理分为3个阶段:第一阶段(1949—1978年)旱涝灾害频繁,主要遵循“蓄泄兼筹”思路,进行抗旱防洪等水利工程建设;第二阶段(1979—2005年)水质严重恶化,以提升防洪标准和强力治理污染源为思路,进行旱涝灾害和水污染的共同治理;第三阶段(2006年至今)淮河被列入水专项重点示范流域,在控源减排、减负修复、综合调控思路指导下,开展水污染的系统治理。相比20世纪90年代,目前淮河水质明显改善,GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅴ类和劣Ⅴ类水质占比降至12.2%,优良水质占比显著提升,但水污染形势仍然严峻,存在水环境污染压力大、水生态受损严重等问题。“十四五”期间应通过强化污染源系统治理、推进流域水生态完整性修复、提升流域调控管理能力等,持续推进淮河流域水污染治理。     

“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

Rehabilitation of a lowland river: Reconciling flood defence with habitat diversity and geomorphological sustainability

Geomorphologically appropriate rehabilitation measures were proposed to enhance the in-stream environment of the lowland River Idle, north Nottinghamshire, UK. However, the River Idle has multi-functional management requirements including those of flood defence so environmental enhancement must be pursued without significantly increasing the flood risk. Hydraulic testing of rehabilitation proposals is complicated because of the stringent assumptions about flow and morphology in ‘traditional’ hydraulic models. While new generation two- and three-dimension hydraulic models may overcome some of these problems, they are extremely data intensive, require advanced modelling capabilities and are, therefore, very expensive to apply. Also, they do not yet predict morphology-flow interactions adequately. As an alternative, several simple hydraulic models were applied to test the rehabilitation proposals, based on a fitness-for-purpose criterion.BENDFLOW was applied to fine tune the optimal siting of measures and to estimate the additional near-bank scour generated by proposed bend re-profiling. HMODEL2 and the FCFA method were used to test the impact on local channel conveyance capacities and HECRAS was applied to simulate the impact of the proposals on regional flood defence. Indicative results from the testing suggested a maximum increase in near-bank scour of 0·15 m in re-profiled bends, a loss of approximately 10% in flood conveyance locally due to deflector installation or reed and tree planting, and a 0·12 m increase in flood stage within the reach for a 15 year flood. The modelling results were acceptable to the management authority as an indication of an acceptable compromise between flood defence and conservation interests, and construction of the measures followed in 1996. It is clearly that it will require the results of post-project monitoring to indicate whether compromises made to the rehabilitation initiatives in order to satisfy flood defence requirements have unduly reduced their environmental enhancement potential but, for assessing the proposed methods, the models are recommended for use other lowland river environments.     

从我国“98”南北洪水看山西防洪问题

从我国“９８”洪灾的惨重经济损失中认为,除了气候因素外,生态环境遭到人为破坏是致灾的主要原因。以此为鉴,结合山西实际,分析了山西防洪中存在的问题及根治洪患的举措     

"深圳-巴彦浩特"地理样带土地利用与水旱灾害研究

在建立1990-2000年“深圳-巴彦浩特“地理样带水旱灾害数据库的基础上,结合样带1995、2000年两期的土地利用数据,分析了样带水旱灾害的区域差异,及其与样带土地利用时空格局的关系.结果表明,样带水旱灾害呈现较强的南北差异,北方以旱灾为主,南方以水灾为主;土地利用结构对样带水旱灾害有较强的影响,土地利用类型复杂的县市有较高的水旱灾害发生率,而土地利用类型单一的县市则受水旱灾害影响较小.水灾主要出现在样带南部多种土地利用类型混杂的县市,特别是城镇建设用地比例较高的地区,水灾相对更为频繁;旱灾在缺乏灌溉水源且以耕地和草地为主要土地利用类型的区域发生频率较高.     

巢湖流域旱涝时空特性分析

利用巢湖流域14个站点39年(1961~2000年)的降水观测资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝指标,运用地理信息系统(GIS)等方法,对巢湖流域汛期旱涝的时空变化特征进行了分析探讨,其结果表明:巢湖流域旱涝灾害十分频繁,旱涝灾害发生的频率和降水量呈现正相关关系,具有阶段性和周期性等特性,空间分布上存在一定的结构性,巢湖流域北部为易旱易涝区,西部为易旱区,东南部、南部是易涝区,中北部是不易旱易涝区。     

An experimental study of soil conservation using herbaceous plants in Majuli Island, Assam, India

A model experiment on soil conservation utilising the plantation of certain herbaceous plants in a selected stretch of Majuli, the largest riverine island in the world, was carried out. The plantation followed work to establish the proper inclination for the river bank. The soil erosion in the experimental site was reduced to only about 2% compared with about 15–20% in the previous years. All the four species selected for the present study had excellent soil binding capacity and were thus helpful in stabilizing the highly vulnerable soil in the flood plain areas of the region.     

甘肃省暴雨洪水灾害分布特征研究

根据甘肃省各地1971～2000年气象整编资料及1981-2000年土壤湿度资料，计算分析了主讯期（6～8月）各地土壤水分容纳量，并对甘肃省大暴雨的时空分布、洪水灾害形成的地形、地质特征作了系统分析，依此对暴雨洪水地质灾害进行了区划，对其危害进行了评述.     

不同灌溉方式冬小麦农田生态系统碳平衡研究

全球气候变暖趋势明显,陆地生态系统碳循环的研究成为目前的研究热点,而农田生态系统是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,由于农田生态系统是受人类强烈调节与控制的复合系统,其碳循环受各类农作措施的影响极大。新疆地处干旱区,水分条件是农田碳循环的最重要限制因子。为此,分析不同灌溉方式对冬小麦（Triticum aestivuml）农田生态系统碳平衡的影响,从而提出有利于新疆冬小麦生产的固碳减排的灌溉方式。试验于2012—2013年在伊宁县科技示范园冬小麦试验田进行,选择伊农18冬小麦品种为供试材料,确定滴灌和漫灌为两个试验主因子并设置小区。试验自冬小麦返青开始至完全成熟结束,期间平均每7天采1次样,其中用典型样株法采集小麦植株,分根、茎、叶等不同器官单独烘干测定植株固碳量;用静态钠石灰吸收法测定冬小麦土壤呼吸;收集整理已发表国内外文献中的各类碳排放参数确定本研究中所需参数;采用王小彬的碳平衡计算方法分析不同灌溉方式农田生态系统碳平衡,据此对滴灌和漫灌两种灌溉方式的冬麦农田作物生物量固碳、土壤碳排放量和作物生产过程中物质投入的间接碳排放量,以及两种灌溉方式下冬麦农田生态系统净碳值进行分析。试验结果表明：滴灌条件下冬麦农田生态系统小麦的固碳量、土壤碳排放总量分别比漫灌小麦的高出15.38%和11.43%,冬小麦穗是差异形成的主要原因;而农业生产资料排碳总量比漫灌少排3.88%;但无论是滴灌还是漫灌,耗电碳排放量均占农业生产资料碳排放总量的59%以上,是农业生产资料碳排放的第一大来源。两种灌溉方式下冬小麦田生态系统的净碳值均呈现出固碳并存在显著差异（p〈0.01）,且滴灌冬麦农田生态系统净碳值比漫灌高25.39%。因此,新疆冬小麦生产中采用滴灌方式更有利于农田生态系统的固碳,