松花江干流洪水与1998年松嫩大水分析--发生规律及成因

松花江干流洪水的发生有24年和3～4年变化周期.洪水出现有明显的阶段性,在上世纪可分为4段1911-1914;1930-1940;1954-1958;1984-1998年.随着时间的推移,洪水发生频次明显增加.分析得出,嫩江流域及第二松花江和拉林河流域7,8月的过量降水是造成洪水发生的直接原因.还分析了造成洪水的高空500hPa环流背景,7,8月西藏高原至北美阿拉斯加距平场分布为“ - -“流型,鄂霍次克海为阻塞高压,东北区为低压槽控制.在大水年春季,阿留申低槽加深,并向西延伸,乌拉尔高压形成并东移加强.1998年松嫩大水的发生基本符合上述规律和环流原因.     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

我国Natech事件分布规律及涉水Natech事件致因分析

为弥补我国自然—技术事件(Natech事件)案例研究空白,基于多种数据挖掘方法对近20 a公开报道的自然灾害诱发的技术事故案例进行收集整理,建立了Natech事件数据库.对该类事件时空分布、行业分布进行交叉分析后发现:Natech事件季节特征明显,暴雨和大风是主要肇因,建筑业和交通运输业脆弱性较强.在引入不利气象情景对...     

VR-GIS技术在小城镇洪水淹没模拟分析中的应用

近年来利用计算机和信息技术研究洪水灾害是个研究热点,但小城镇在防洪减灾方面缺少应有的关注和重视。本文对VR(虚拟现实技术)-GIS技术在小城镇洪水淹没模拟分析中的应用进行了研究,解决了系统实现过程中的一系列关键技术:小城镇空间数据库的建库技术及三维可视化、洪水淹没范围的确定,以及洪水淹没实时动态演示等问题。该技术已在国家十五科技攻关项目所开发的《小城镇基础设施防灾减灾决策支持系统》中得以实现。实践证明:小城镇空间数据库的建库技术速度快、成本低,适合中国小城镇的信息化现状。利用淹没范围的近似计算模型,可以有效迅速准确地计算出洪水淹没范围,有利于防洪减灾的迅速决策,且偏于安全。小城镇洪水灾害的三维可视化模拟,可以实时动态地演示小城镇遭受洪灾实况的全过程。     

半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法.松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标,属于半结构决策问题.本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法.基本方法是:将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标;对于定性应用层次分析法,求其评价矩阵;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法,求其评价矩阵;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策.应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中.     

Waiting for the flood: technocratic time and impending disaster in the Himalayas

A landslide occurred in the region of Zanskar in the Indian Himalayas in 2015, damming the Tsarap River, creating a lake that effectively became a ticking time bomb, threatening villagers downstream. During the period between the discovery of the natural dam and the bursting of the lake, the state's approach to disaster management plunged the local population into a situation where ‘technocratic time’ ruled, as government experts handled the impending disaster at a rhythm dictated by the production of studies and reports. Analysis of the temporality of disaster mitigation and preparedness measures during this anticipated flood, as well as of the factors that surrounded the events, reveals how attitudes towards the state shaped people's perceptions of these interventions. In Zanskar, the technocratic pace and the state's lack of transparency were seen as a form of oppression that further marginalised the region, in particular by subjecting its population to the process of waiting.     

Flooding and schools: experiences in Hull in 2007

Hull, a city in the East Riding of Yorkshire, United Kingdom, suffered severe flooding in June 2007, affecting some 8,600 households and most schools. Despite the potential for damage in such disasters, no studies of the effects of floods on teachers and schools in the UK appear to have been published previously. This study analysed the impacts of the floods on teachers in Hull in two stages: first through correspondence with Hull City Council and a mailed questionnaire to 91 head teachers of primary, secondary, and special schools; and second, through in‐depth interviews with head teachers from six flooded schools, representing different degrees of flood experience, and a questionnaire completed by eight teachers from the same schools. The findings reveal the importance and the complexity of the role of the school in the wider community in a time of crisis. The study highlights issues concerning preparedness for floods, support for schools, and flood protection for schools.     

江汉平原湿地功能下降与洪涝灾害关系分析

建国以来，江汉平原湿地面积及其生态功能发生了很大的变化，根据史志记载和气候资料，对江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生规律和变化趋势进行了分析，总结出江汉平原洪涝灾害频率趋高、江河湖高水位频率明显增加、外洪内涝日益严重的变化特点。据此，从时间上探讨了湿地变化与洪涝灾害之间的联系，发现历史和近代洪涝灾害的频发期与相应时期的围垦和江堤修筑有较好的对应。结合国土资源部土地变更调查数据分析了近10年来江汉平原湖泊湿地的主要转移途径，从空间上探讨了湿地动态变化与江汉平原洪涝灾害发生之间的内在联系，研究结果表明江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生和湿地面积的减少及其功能的退化之间存在着很好的相关性，从而进一步证实了湿地的围垦和退化是导致其调蓄能力降低，引发洪涝灾害加剧等负页环境效应的一个重要原因。     

湖南怀化地区96.7城市特大洪涝灾害成因分析

湖南省怀化地区地形以山地为主,该地区１９９６年７月发生了城市特大洪涝灾害,本文概述了该地区９６．７城市洪涝灾情,并以区域灾害系统论为指导,从孕灾环境、致害因子、承灾能力和人类活动的不利影响等方面,对这次灾害的成因进行了分析,认为其主要成因是：（１）易洪涝的山丘区环境;（２）９６．７降雨强度大、覆盖面广、持续时间长的异常雨情和高洪峰水位、流量的异常水情;（３）城市防洪标准低、水利水电工程防洪效益差和抗洪害意识不强等原因造成的城市防洪能力低;（４）砍伐森林、人为侵占河道和大型水库超常规蓄水等人类活动造成的不利影响。     

西江流域中部的洪涝特征及防洪减灾对策

对广西西江流域中部的洪涝特征进行了较全面的论述,并对西江流域防洪减灾提出了有效的对策。