江苏省城市防汛决策支持系统研究

在分析江苏省城市防汛问题的基础上，设计了其防汛决策支持系统；根据江苏省城市洪涝灾情特点研建和选用了适宜的数学模型，该模型可以迅速、可靠和正确地模拟城市雨情、水情、灾情的发展过程和可能后果，为城市防汛决策提供多层次的信息服务和多种支持手段。     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

调整环境政策 发展环保产业

本文介绍了中国的环境政策,论述了开放竞争的条件对中国现存环境政策和环保产业的影响,并对未来中国环境政策提出了改革建议。     

An approach to integrate impact scoping with environmental impact assessment

Impact scoping is the process of identifying important issues of a proposal and focusing the environmental impact assessment (EIA) on the high-priority issues. Although impact scoping in one form or another has been inherent to EIA for some time, documentation of its development and discussion of refinements to impact scoping processes have not been forthcoming. This article traces the development of impact scoping through time and highlights the need for such processes in EIA. A focused environmental assessment (FEA) approach to impact scoping that is suitable for implementation in an EIA is presented here and advantages of its use are delineated. FEA is a three-staged process that encourages impact scoping through progressive steps including impact identification, assessment and management planning. FEA combines a suite of EIA methods including: issues matrices, impact hypotheses, valued ecosystem components, and stakeholder participation sessions to effectively integrate impact scoping with EIA.     

A RISK-BASED APPROACH FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION OF A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Many approaches are available for operation of a multipurpose reservoir during flood season; one of them is allocation of storage space for flood control. A methodology to determine a reservoir operation policy based on explicit risk consideration is presented. The objective of the formulation is to maximize the reservoir storage at the end of a flood season while ensuring that the risk of an overflow is within acceptable limits. The Dynamic Programming technique has been used to solve the problem. This approach has been applied to develop operation policies for an existing reservoir. The performance of the policy was evaluated through simulation and was found to be satisfactory.     

大巴山区化学药剂防治与农业生态环境保护对策

本文对大巴山区农业生产中用化学药剂防治状况及存在的主要问题进行了分析研究。在此基础上，提出开展农药区划和区域性宏观调控，建立农药污染监测管理机制，进一步提高综合防治技术水平和专业化防治程度，加强防止污染微观技术的研究与推广控制策略和措施，以实现对化学药剂防治与农业生态环境保护。把农业环境保护工作纳入农业发展和国家农业环境保护的总体规划。     

九峰山地区的生物资源及其保护

九峰山地区天然植被保存完整,动植物资源颇为丰富。该区有维管束植物82科302属596种;陆栖脊椎动物134种,其中兽类25种、鸟类100种(另有2亚种)、两栖和爬行类7种、鱼类2种。蒙古扁桃和黄芪为国家三类保护植物,青羊和雪豹为国家二类保护兽类,金雕等13种鸟为国家二类保护鸟类;另外还有其它用途的经济动、植物。