洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

Public Perception of Flood Hazard in the Niger Delta,Nigeria

Summary Our study had the aim of understanding how floodplain dwellers regard the risk of flooding. About 500 questionnaires were administered to landowners in the selected settlements in the study area using systematic random sampling. The results of analysis show, among other things, that the population regards most important the causes of floods as heavy, prolonged rainfall and river overflow. Nevertheless, they have little knowledge of the frequency of severe floods, and flood alleviation schemes. Most flood victims do not get compensation or relief during flood disaster, and the reason why they remain in the study area is influenced by their occupations, especially fishing, subsistence agriculture, and the presence of crude oil in the region which has attracted many migrants who cannot afford the high cost of accommodation and are therefore forced to live in vulnerable areas of the floodplain. Finally, the study concludes that flood control in the region needs the cooperation of government, community efforts and an enlightenment programmes through environmental education and mass media.     

GEOMORPHOLOGY OF STEEPLAND HEADWATERS: THE TRANSITION FROM HILLSLOPES TO CHANNELS1

Headwater streams comprise 60 to 80 percent of the cumulative length of river networks. In hilly to mountainous terrain, they reflect a mix of hillslope and channel processes because of their close proximity to sediment source areas. Their morphology is an assemblage of residual soils, landslide deposits, wood, boulders, thin patches of poorly sorted alluvium, and stretches of bedrock. Longitudinal profiles of these channels are strongly influenced by steps created by sediment deposits, large wood, and boulders. Due to the combination of small drainage area, stepped shallow gradient, large roughness elements, and cohesive sediments, headwater streams typically transport little sediment or coarse wood debris by fluvial processes. Consequently, headwaters act as sediment reservoirs for periods spanning decades to centuries. The accumulated sediment and wood may be episodically evacuated by debris flows, debris floods, or gully erosion and transported to larger channels. In mountain environments, these processes deliver significant amounts of materials that form riverine habitats in larger channels. In managed steepland forests, accelerated rates of landslides and debris flows resulting from the harvest of headwater forests have the potential to seriously impact the morphology of headwater streams and downstream resources.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

Rested,friendly, and engaged: The role of daily positive collegial interactions at work

This diary study examined within‐person effects of positive work and off‐work experiences on daily work engagement. Assessing the gain cycle assumption of conservation of resources theory, we investigated the relationship of nighttime recovery experiences and subsequent resources including elevated sleep quality and morning positive affect; the relationship of morning positive affect with positive collegial interactions and subsequent work engagement; and the relationship of work engagement with nighttime recovery experiences. Sixty‐nine employees completed 3 daily questionnaires over 5 consecutive working days. Multilevel analyses revealed that sleep quality positively predicted morning positive affect, which in turn predicted work engagement directly and also indirectly through having positive interactions with colleagues. Work engagement positively predicted nighttime recovery experiences, whereas nighttime recovery experiences were not related to sleep quality or morning positive affect the next day. Overall, on days after a good night's sleep, individuals feel more positive, bring this positivity to their workplace, reach out to their workplace colleagues, and are in turn more likely to be engaged in their work. Additionally, on days when individuals experience higher levels of positive collegial interactions at work and in turn higher work engagement, they are likely to enjoy better recovery experiences.     

Drivers of Seabird Population Recovery on New Zealand Islands after Predator Eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator‐free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. Conductores de la Recuperación de Poblaciones de Aves Marinas en Islas de Nueva Zelanda después de la Erradicación de Depredadores     

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government‐sponsored payments‐for‐ecosystem‐services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long‐term empirical data set, a satellite‐based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive‐based strategy as a complement to command‐and‐control, community‐ and norm‐based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict.     

电化学氢化物发生法处理含锑废水及对锑的回收

采用电化学氢化物发生法对模拟含锑废水进行处理,锑与水电解产生的氢形成氢化物从溶液中脱除,而后收集并加热分解锑化氢得到金属锑.实验表明,在酸性条件下对Sb(Ⅲ)去除效果较好,p H=4时去除率为76.1%.Sb(Ⅲ)与电解水产生的氢结合形成锑化氢从溶液中逸出是溶液中锑去除的最主要途径(回收率为66.2%),电沉积和吸附也对锑的去除做出少量贡献.Sb(Ⅴ)须预还原为Sb(Ⅲ)再氢化进行去除.试用了铅、石墨、钨这3种电解阴极材料,铅电极处理效果最佳.