防洪物资储备决策方法初探

根据防洪抢险物资储备属于一种信息不全型决策问题的特点,本文提出了一种用于确定每年防灾物资准备量概率排序决策模型,并以孙不河流泥石流灾害预报火灾决策为例进行说明。     

洪灾对柳州可持续发展的影响及减灾对策

通过对柳州市洪灾特点的分析,探讨了洪灾对柳州市经济、社会可持续发展的制约作用,提出洪灾的治理必须走可发展的道路,采用工程措施和非工程措施相结合的对策。     

对地观测技术在重大自然灾害监测与评估中的应用实例分析

对地观测技术可提供大范围、多时相、高分辨率的海量数据,用于自然灾害的监测与评估有其极大的优越性。本文叙述了对地观测技术在洪涝灾害、沙尘天气、森林火灾的监测与评估和地震形变场研究中的应用,并指出对地观测技术是建立数字减灾系统不可或缺的强大信息源。     

DPX快速萃取程序升温大体积进样GC/MS法测定水中19种多溴联苯化合物

建立DPX快速吸附萃取、程序升温(PTV)大体积进样与气相色谱/质谱(GC/MS)联用,SIM模式同时测定水中19种多溴联苯(PBBs)单体的方法。该方法在PBBs质量浓度1~50μg/L范围内线性良好,19种PBBs单体检出限为0.147~0.230μg/L,相对标准偏差为6.61%~10.5%,加标回收率为61.5%~82.6%。     

生物滴滤塔处理模拟甲硫醚废气

在常温条件下,采用生物滴滤塔处理模拟甲硫醚废气,考察了气体空床停留时间(EBRT)、容积负荷、喷淋密度及营养液pH对生物滴滤塔性能的影响。实验结果表明:当EBRT为90 s、进气甲硫醚质量浓度为150 mg/m~3、喷淋密度为0.65 m~3/(m~2·h),营养液pH为6.8时,甲硫醚去除率为90%;容积负荷高于15 g/(m~3·h)时,对生物滴滤塔的性能产生抑制作用;EBRT为90 s及60 s时,最佳喷淋密度分别为0.56~0.65 m~3/(m~2·h)及0.65~0.75 m~3/(m~2·h);降解甲硫醚的微生物对pH的变化较敏感,最适营养液pH为6~7。     

1961~2015年西南地区降水及洪涝指数空间分布特征

利用西南地区98个气象站连续完整的日降水序列数据,整合降水强度、持续性指数及等级指数形成降水指数体系并研究该区域降水及洪涝指数的空间分布特征,得到以下主要结论：（1） 1961~2015年,西南地区年降水量（PRCPTOT）与极端降水量（R95PTOT）都呈现出“东多西少、南多北少”的分布形态;持续降水日数（CWD）则表现为“南高北低、西高东低”的分布格局。区域多年平 均PRCPTOT、R95PTOT、CWD分别以-13.12 mm/10 a、1.34 mm/10 a、-0.29 d/10 a的速率变化。（2）西南地区不同等级降水日数具有相似的空间分布特征,均呈现出“南高北低、东高西低”的分布形态。（3）西南地区洪涝强度指数呈由东北向西南递减的分布特征;降水总量越多的地区,洪涝强度反而越低,主要由于单站洪涝强度表征的是降水的波动情况,降水量越多波动越不明显。21世纪以来,该 地区洪涝等级以重级为主,2010年以来连续多年出现特重级洪涝。此外,洪涝强度越大,区域性年度灾害等级越高。该研究对于掌握西南地区极端气候变化规律,从而服务于防灾减灾具有一定的理论意义。     

Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

成都市餐厨垃圾产量分析预测及监管体系建设研究

整理汇总了成都市中心城区及郊县餐厨垃圾产生和收运现状,对其产量作出预测;在此基础上提出适合成都市自身情况的餐厨垃圾监管体系构建设想。     

水下公路隧道纵向疏散通道加压送风系统研究

为研究水下公路隧道纵向疏散通道加压送风系统的关键设计参数,结合纵向疏散通道的特点,借鉴一般建筑加压送风系统的设计要求,提出了纵向疏散通道内加压送风量的计算方法,并通过数值模拟方法对纵向疏散通道加压送风系统进行了研究。结果表明,利用风速法计算得到的送风量比压差法计算得到的结果大20倍左右,并且压差法计算送风量时受疏散口缝隙宽度影响较大,工程适用性差。通过数值模拟可知,疏散通道内的送风风速达到1.5m/s时即能够满足人员安全疏散要求,这与风速法计算的结果一致。研究结果可供采用纵向疏散模式的隧道疏散通道加压送风系统设计参考。     

Inequalities in exposure and awareness of flood risk in England and Wales

This paper explores the environmental inequalities of living in the floodplains of England and Wales and the differences in flood awareness of those 'at risk'. An area comparison is made between an etic, objective flood risk exposure, and an emic, subjective perception of that risk by social class. In all areas except the Midlands, the working classes were more likely to reside in the floodplains; the greatest exposure inequality is seen in the North East and Anglian regions. Flood awareness in the Anglian regions was much lower than average, but there were no significant class differences. In the Thames region, despite equal flood risk exposure between classes, the most deprived displayed the least awareness of flood risk. In the North East, inequalities in the distribution of flood risk exposure accompanied inequalities in perception, resulting in the least aware and most deprived experiencing the greatest flood risk.