洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Forest Area in Costa Rica: A Comparative Study of Tropical Forest Cover Estimates over Time

Forest area figures, at a given point in time and for a given region of interest, differ considerably, affecting the calculation of deforestation rates and thus confuse the political and scientific discussion on the state and change of the resource forest. This article discusses the variation of published forest cover figures, using Costa Rica as an example. A list of published figures on the forest cover of Costa Rica from 1940 onwards is analyzed. Reasons for the differences are hypothesized and discussed. These differences are mainly in the definition of forest and forest classes included, in the type of the studies conducted (mapping and/or sampling), in the precision of the estimates, and in the information sources used. It is concluded that part of the problem is inherent in the nature of the resource `forest'. Quality and completeness of the presentation of the forest cover estimates are a clue to their correct understanding and interpretation. The latter point being especially relevant, as forest cover data have both a technical-scientific and a political meaning and are used as relevant arguments in many discussions. In the example of Costa Rica, a general downward trend is observed up to about 1985/1990, whereas after that forest area figures are on the average at a markedly higher level. Some hypotheses for this change in the trend are discussed.     

Multi-level screening of a proposed hazardous waste treatment and disposal facility site--a case study

A comprehensive environmental assessment (EA) is a pre-requisite before the site for developing a hazardous waste treatment and disposal facility (HWTDF) is selected. However, the resource limitations, especially for developing countries, often dictatethat the detailed EA be restricted to those sites, which are constraint free and have low hazard potentials. Thus, a preliminary screening exercise for assessing the suitability ofsite for developing the HWTDF needs to be carried out to avoid huge costs involved in detailed EA. While screening a HWTDF site,various factors such as present land use, ecologically sensitiveareas, geology and hydrogeology of the area, the quality and quantity of wastes, engineered safeguards, and the operationalprocedures that need to be adopted, are required to be addressed. In this paper, a multi-level screening criteria employing RemoteSensing, Constraint Mapping, Groundwater Pollution Potential Index (DRASTIC Index), and the Site Ranking was used to assess the suitability of a proposed site for the development of HWTDF.The study helped to identify various constraints at the proposedsite and their significance on the development of the HWTDF.     

Geostatistical Uncertainty Modelling for the Environmental Hazard Assessment During Single Erosive Rainstorm Events

This paper presents an environmental hazard assessment to account the impacts of single rainstorm variability on river-torrential landscape identified as potentially vulnerable mainly to erosional soil degradation processes. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Erosive Hazard Index (EHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In EHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. The hazard analysis links key rainstorm energy variables expressed as a single-storm erosion index (EI_sto), with impact thresholds identified using an intensity pattern model. Afterwards, the conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are spatially assessed using non-parametric geostatistical techinques, known as indicator kriging. The approach was applied to a test site in river-torrential landscape of the Southern Italy (Benevento province) for 13 November 1997 rainstorm event.     

关于华南前震旦纪浅变质岩区地质填图中某些问题的思考

华南前震旦纪浅变质岩是一种岩性单调、变形强烈，既不同于中深变质岩又有别于沉积岩的特殊岩类。这种岩类区的填图单位与构造样式的确立不能彼此独立，而是互为前提、互相依存的。因此，选择什么样的填图方法已成为建全区域地层序列、构造格架的关键。由于对这种特殊性缺乏充分的认识，在利用常规填图方法完成的多比例尺地质图编制1：25万地质图时应予以慎重对待。实践证明，华南前震旦纪至少存在2－3个世代的叠加褶皱，这是现今区调中应当引起注意的问题。本文对“构造岩带”、“韧性剪切带”、“非史密斯”以及有关前震旦纪基础地质问题的研究思路进行了探讨。     

现代测绘技术在解决矿区资源与环境问题中的应用探讨

以“３Ｓ”技术及其集成为代表的现代测绘技术在解决我国矿区存在的资源浪费及环境污染问题中具有重要的应用,本文对此进行了探讨。     

厚覆盖区1：25万区域地质调查工作方法研究

通过1：25万杭州市幅厚覆盖区第四纪研究和填图实践，初步总结出“以气候旋回及基准面旋回等时性理论为基础，从古气候旋回宏观识别标志研究人手，以标准孔为基准点外延扩展，在反复认识与验证的基础上，进行层序地层划分，建立剖面等时格架，制作高精度对比的剖面图及准瞬时岩相古地理图”的研究方法，以及“从古岸线沉积物研究人手，充分运用非正式岩石地层单位的表示方法，结合考古及地方志，填绘出具岩石空间分布、海平面升降信息、古文化遗址、浅表含水层展布及河流与海岸线变迁”的非常规填图方法。提高了本区第四纪地层研究精度，使地质图具有强烈的地区特色。拓宽了区调工作的服务领域。并为沿海厚覆盖区的区域地质调查另辟了一条新思路。     

Monitoring air quality with lichens: a comparison between mapping in forest sites and in open areas

Four different methods of epiphytic lichen mapping were used for the assessment of air quality in the region under the influence of the Sostanj Thermal Power Plant (Salek Valley, Slovenia). Three methods were based on the presence of different lichen species (VDI, EU and ICP-Forest), the fourth on a frequency and coverage assessment of different growth forms of epiphytic lichens, e.g. crustose, foliose and fruticose (SI). A comparison of the results from the assessment of air quality between forest sites (ICP-Forest, SI) and open areas (VDI, EU and SI), obtained by the different methods of epiphytic lichen mapping, is presented in the contribution. Data showed that lichen species richness is worse in forest sites in comparison with open areas. From the data obtained it can be concluded that epiphytic lichen mapping in open areas is a better method for the assessment of air pollution in a given area than mapping in forest sites. The species-based methods in open areas are more powerful and useful for air quality assessment in polluted research areas than the SI and ICP-Forest methods.     

Using Spatial Pattern to Quantify Relationship Between Samples, Surroundings, and Populations

The need for accurate carbon budgeting, climate change modelling, and sustainable resource management has lead to an increase in the number of large area forest monitoring programs. Large area forest monitoring programs often utilize field and remotely sensed data sources. Sampling, via field or photo plots, enables the collection of data with the desired level of categorical detail in a timely and efficient manner. When sampling, the aim is to collect representative detailed data enabling the statistical reporting upon the characteristics of larger areas. As a consequence, approaches for investigating how well sample data represent larger areas (i.e., the sample neighbourhood and the population) are desired. Presented in this communication is a quantitative approach for assessing the nature of sampled areas in relation to surrounding areas and the overall population of interest. Classified Landsat data is converted to forest/non-forest categories to provide a consistent and uniform data set over a 130,000 km² study region in central British Columbia, Canada. From this larger study area 322 2 × 2 km photo plots on a 20 × 20 km systematic grid are populated with composition and configuration information for comparison to non-sampled areas. Results indicate that typically, within the study area, the spatial pattern of forest within a photo plot is representative of the forest patterns found within primary and secondary neighbourhoods and over the entire population of the study. These methods have implications for understanding the nature of data used in monitoring programs worldwide. The ability to audit photo and field plot information promotes an increased understanding of the results developed from sampling and provides tools identifying locations of possible bias.     

Implementing the European flood risk management plan

In response to the extreme flood events of recent decades, the European Union has released the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), which requires the creation of flood risk management plans. These plans do not yet exist in practice, as water management agencies have until 2015 to put them into action. This contribution will discuss two questions regarding the European flood risk management plan: First, how is the new instrument integrated into the various member states, particularly with respect to the scenario approach? Second, how prepared are the institutions for the collaborative planning paradigm of the flood risk management plan, particularly with respect to the river basin districts approach? Citing examples from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, this paper offers both a pessimistic and an optimistic perspective on the implementation of the new flood risk management instrument.