基于碑刻记录的嘉陵江清代洪水发生规律及成因研究

基于历史文献法收集整理了《四川两千年洪水史料汇编》中嘉陵江清代洪水碑刻的碑文记录,并利用Gibbs-Mirtin多样化指数法分析洪水碑刻记录的空间分布特征。结果发现:清朝时期,嘉陵江流域共有洪水碑刻记录55通,月份明确可辨的有36通。空间上整体分布不均,下游多于中上游,其中嘉陵江干流28通(20通有明确月份;Gibbs-Mirtin多样化指数为0.46,上游仅有零星分布,相对集中于中下游),渠江16通(10通有明确月份;Gibbs-Mirtin多样化指数为0.71,各河段均有分布),涪江11通(6通有明确月份;Gibbs-Mirtin多样化指数为0,仅集中于下游的重庆市)。洪水碑刻记录在年内主要分布于6、7、8、9四个月,洪水碑刻清晰记录了清代1679年(2通)、1840年(3通)、1870年(17通)、1903年(2通)4次特大洪水,洪水碑刻记录的嘉陵江流域清代洪水的发生频率为7 a一洪。清代嘉陵江洪水碑刻记录反映了流域夏秋季洪水较多,这与嘉陵江流域的亚热带湿润季风气候、多洪齐发的扇状水系、低山丘陵-谷坝地形、松散的土壤质地以及"湖广填川"时期毁林垦荒导致的水土流失与河道淤积有关。     

Social impact of the 2004 Manawatu floods and the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand

The Manawatu floods of 2004 have had significant, long-lasting social consequences. This paper draws on findings from a series of detailed surveys of 39 farm households directly affected by the floods and 17 individuals directly involved in managing the flood recovery programme. The nature of the impact on rural families highlights how the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand has changed the capacity of rural communities to respond to natural hazards and increased their sense of isolation. In addition, the floods exposed the vulnerability of rural communities. This is shown to have implications for policies designed to build resilience and improve responses to adverse events, including the need to support local, community initiatives on self-reliance and mutual support. Approaches to manage better long-term flood risks should be designed within a context of ongoing rural decline that has compromised the health of both individuals and communities.     

不同制图比例尺土壤数据库对旱地磷储量估算的影响

陆地生态系统中的磷元素在土壤肥力保持和生态环境保护方面起着重要的作用,但以往国家或区域尺度磷储量估算并没有考虑不同尺度土壤数据库所造成的差异。文章以江苏北部29个县（市）390多万hm2旱地为例,分析了17 000多个图斑和963个剖面组成、能详尽反映土壤属性空间异质性的1∶50 000数据库与目前国内同类研究使用最多的1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库对磷储量估算的影响。结果表明,不同制图尺度土壤数据库估算的全磷密度和储量差异很大,1∶50 000土壤数据库下的全磷密度和储量分别为1.34 kg.m-3和10.52 Tg,而1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 0002个土壤数据库下磷密度和储量分别为0.79 kg.m-3和6.02 Tg、0.77 kg.m-3和6.26 Tg,远小于1∶50 000土壤数据库的全磷密度和储量。从不同土壤类型看,褐土受制图比例尺影响最大,1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000土壤数据库全磷密度和储量相对偏差分别在80%~90%和7%~130%之间,面积最大的潮土在1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000全磷密度和储量相对偏差也分别达到38%~39%和21%~23%。从各个县（市）来看,1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000土壤数据全磷密度和储量相对偏差大多超过40%。这也说明使用不同制图尺度土壤数据库将对旱地磷储量和磷密度的估算结果造成很大的影响。因此,在今后的国家和区域尺度全磷密度和储量估算研究中使用更详细的土壤数据库是非常必要的。     

湖北省水患防治对策研究

湖北省的洪涝灾害受全球尺度和流域尺度的多种因素的影响。全球尺度因素是指全球性的气候异常，流域尺度因素是指不利的自然条件和人类对自然环境与自然资源的不合理开发利用等方面。现阶段所采用的治水对策，即生态措施和工程措施，存在明显的局限性，不能彻底根治水患。通过系统分析湖北省水患原因和治水对策，提出以洪涝灾害承灾区的受因人口和受因财产的总数定量地表示洪涝灾害灾情的指标，该指标与灾情的对应关系明确且简明易得，为治水对策提供了更合理的依据。在此基础上，论述了“提高洪涝灾害承灾区的城市化水平、鼓励抗洪新技术和新机制的开发利用以及加强溃堤后的应对策略研究”等治水对策的必要性、合理性和可行性。     

Modeling Opportunity Costs of Conservation in Transitional Landscapes

Abstract:  Conservation scientists recognize the urgency of incorporating opportunity costs into conservation planning. Despite this, applications to date have been limited, perhaps partly because of the difficulty in determining costs in regions with limited data on land prices and ownership. We present methods for estimating opportunity costs of land preservation in landscapes or ecoregions that are a changing mix of agriculture and natural habitat. Our approach derives from the literature on estimating land values as opportunity costs of alternate land uses and takes advantage of general availability of necessary data, even in relatively data-poor regions. The methods integrate probabilities of habitat conversion with region-wide estimates of economic benefits from agricultural land uses and estimate land values with a discount rate to convert annual values into net present values. We applied our method in a landscape undergoing agricultural conversion in Paraguay. Our model of opportunity costs predicted an independent data set of land values and was consistent with implicit discount rates of 15–25%. Model-generated land values were strongly correlated with actual land values even after correcting for the effect of property size and proportion of property that was forested. We used the model to produce a map of opportunity costs and to estimate the costs of conserving forest within two proposed corridors in the landscape. This method can be applied to conservation planning in situations where natural habitat is currently being converted to market-oriented land uses. Incorporating not only biological attributes but also socioeconomic data can help in the design of efficient networks of protected areas that represent biodiversity at minimum costs.     

High-Resolution Vegetation Data for Mangrove Research as Obtained From Aerial Photography

In this methodological study, the applicability of aerial photographs for monitoring mangrove vegetation dynamics at high resolution was investigated. Vegetation maps of three mangrove forests in Sri Lanka (Galle, Rekawa and Pambala) were produced based on visual analysis of aerial photographs. The visual analysis was aided by applying an interpretation key constructed during a first fieldwork mission. Image attributes used for the identification of individual trees included: gray values, texture, form and size of the crowns and the presence or absence of a shaded side. For the identification of species assemblages, the vegetation structure (i.e. the distribution of individual trees) appeared to be an important attribute. The accuracy and reliability of the vegetation maps were investigated during a second fieldwork mission. The aerial photographs proved to be very useful for the production of genus-based vegetation maps. The error analysis showed that density estimations (quantitative identification) based on aerial photography was not sufficiently accurate for the objectives of the study, but that the overall identification of vegetation assemblages (qualitative identification) coincided most satisfactory with the ground-truth data. In addition to the applicability of aerial photography in monitoring mangroves, the importance of aerial photography in the management of the mangrove ecosystem is clearly highlighted.     

基于三角网格的电磁数据的内插和可视化方法

研究了从采集的离散点场强生成整个平面区域的场强的插值方法,及生成的场强数据可视化的颜色映射方法.采用基于三角网格的内插技术,先对二维离散点构造三角网格;假定每个三角形的顶点场强、坐标构成一平面空间,三角形内部的未采集点场强可以由顶点决定的场强平面方程插值求得.给出了插值结果可视化的四段制颜色映射解决方案,与目前国际上主流电磁软件颜色映射方式一致.     

基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估*

为得到精确动态航行评估结果,将多准则决策方法与GIS风险制图技术相结合,以5种海洋环境要素（风场、洋流、海浪、海温和海底地形）作为评估因子,通过数据时空插值法和层次分析法（AHP,Analytic Hierarchy Process）确定评估因子权重,提出权重优化算法改进权重值,进而得到最优动态航行风险评估结果。结果表明:动态航行风险评估结果能够直观展示海域航行风险空间分布和变化趋势,评估具有实时性和连续性,可以为海域恶劣海况提供足够预警能力。     

Chronic institutional failure and enhanced vulnerability to flash‐floods in the Cuenca Altadel Río Lerma,Mexico

The dominant paradigm in disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies has been seriously contested because of its reliance on interventions based on technocratic expertise. In the Mexican context, the influence of informal practices such as clientelism and cartelisation of the political system produces environmental degradation and vulnerability to disasters within the communities in the study site. This paper contributes to understanding of failed institutional processes and parallel practices that intensify vulnerability to disasters by contrasting the discourses of agents within a peri‐urban community in central Mexico. Employing the Situational Analysis Approach as a methodological framework, the study identifies divergent views and practices within the community, leading to different responses to disasters and to different perceptions regarding institutional performance. In addition, it finds that institutional decision‐making, based only on scientific and technical expertise, has resulted in unintended consequences that influence ongoing vulnerability to floods in the site under review.     

Impact of climatic shocks on child human capital: evidence from young lives data

This study attempts to assess the impact of two different climatic shocks, drought and excessive rainfall/flood, as perceived by households on child human capital across four countries: Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam – countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The data source is the Young Lives Study and cross-sectional household data on the older cohort of children (between 14 and 16 years of age) are utilized, for the year 2009. The enrolment rate, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Cloze test and Math test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO-defined Body Mass Index z-scores and Height for Age z-scores. The overall objective is to study heterogeneity in responses to shock in terms of the development of human capital across the set of countries considered. Additionally, the study elaborates on the role of institutional help, during crisis, and the role of household characteristics in buffering these climatic shocks.