UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

Classification and spatial mapping of riparian habitat with applications toward management of streams impacted by nonpoint source pollution

Management of riparian habitats has been recognized for its importance in reducing instream effects of agricultural nonpoint source pollution. By serving as a buffer, well structured riparian habitats can reduce nonpoint source impacts by filtering surface runoff from field to stream. A system has been developed where key characteristics of riparian habitat, vegetation type, height, width, riparian and shoreline bank slope, and land use are classified as discrete categorical units. This classification system recognizes seven riparian vegetation types, which are determined by dominant plant type. Riparian and shoreline bank slope, in addition to riparian width and height, each consist of five categories. Classification by discrete units allows for ready digitizing of information for production of spatial maps using a geographic information system (GIS). The classification system was tested for field efficiency on Tom Beall Creek watershed, an agriculturally impacted third-order stream in the Clearwater River drainage, Nez Perce County, Idaho, USA. The classification system was simple to use during field applications and provided a good inventory of riparian habitat. After successful field tests, spatial maps were produced for each component using the Professional Map Analysis Package (pMAP), a GIS program. With pMAP, a map describing general riparian habitat condition was produced by combining the maps of components of riparian habitat, and the condition map was integrated with a map of soil erosion potential in order to determine areas along the stream that are susceptible to nonpoint source pollution inputs. Integration of spatial maps of riparian classification and watershed characteristics has great potential as a tool for aiding in making management decisions for mitigating off-site impacts of agricultural nonpoint source pollution.     

Decision-tree and rule-induction approach to integration of remotely sensed and GIS data in mapping vegetation in disturbed or hilly environments

The integration of Landsat TM and environmental GIS data sets using artificial intelligence rule-induction and decision-tree analysis is shown to facilitate the production of vegetation maps with both floristic and structural information. This technique is particularly suited to vegetation mapping in disturbed or hilly environments that are unsuited to either conventional remote sensing methods or GIS modeling using environmental data bases.     

1：1000000中国草地资源图的编制与研究

编制１：１００００００中国草地资源图（以下简称《草地图》）是＂１９７８～１９８５年中国科学技术发展规划＂中的一项重点研究课题。首先在全国约８００万ｋm₂草地分布区的２０００多个县内进行野外实地调查和产草量测定,辅以航、卫片校核,编绘县级１：５万或１：１０万草地类型图、草地等级图、草地利用现状图。然后采用系列制图方法,遵照全国统一的编制规范和制图综合原则,用上述县级草地图逐级缩编成国家级１：１００万草地资源图。该图在不同的制图区域──牧区、半农半牧区、农区有不同的地理要素选择标准;不同的图斑表现级;不同的最小图斑面积。《草地图》除传统地表现草地植被类型外,还表现草地利用性状,按制图单元进行草地等级评价。用变距等高距选取了少量对划分草地类型界线、重要牧草分布界线、季节草地界线有重要指示意义的等高线。     

黑龙江省洪水资源化探讨

洪水是可利用的宝贵资源,科学、合理的开发利用洪水是解决水资源短缺的重要途径.要加大宣传力度,提高认识,统一规划,协调发展,充分利用森林、草原、湿地的生态功能保护洪水资源.     

Prenatal diagnosis of aortic atresia by colour doppler flow mapping

A case of aortic atresia with insufficiency of mitral valve diagnosed prenatally at 33 weeks of gestation is presented. An accurate diagnosis of this fetal cardiovascular malformation was possible by application of Doppler colour flow mapping, which demonstrated (a) the absence of forward flow in the hypoplastic ascending aorta, (b) reverse flow of blood from the ductus arteriosus into the severely hypoplastic ascending aorta in the late systole, (c) pansystolic mitral valve regurgitation, and (d) absent flow across the foramen ovale as a result of premature closure of the foramen ovale.     

Using GIS for siting artificial reefs—Data issues, problems and solutions: ‘Real World’ to ‘Real World’

As GIS becomes an increasingly more ‘user-friendly’ tool, and more people recognize the benefits of the technology in their work environment, inevitably greater use will be made of it for a wide range of applications. The ease with which a GIS can now be used often overshadows the complexity underlying this technology and the potential difficulties that can (and do) arise when this is not fully understood. In practice, there are two routes open to the application of GIS technology for environmental studies. The first is to commission new data for the research. The second is to make use of existing data sets. Data are at the heart of any GIS application. A detailed knowledge about the data sources, the method of collection, capture, scale and sampling strategy, especially if the data are to be used in any analysis, modelling or simulation studies, is fundamental to any application. Unfortunately, information about data (metadata) is seldom available, especially for archival or legacy data sets. Furthermore, although it is now relatively easy to acquire digital data, to input, store, manipulate and display this data, and to output the results of any GIS analysis in the practical sense, little consideration is given to the problems associated with data quality and how this will ultimately affect present and future analyses and use of the output for planning and decision-making. The need to raise awareness about data quality for applications is set in the context of the development of an environmental database for the Moray Firth. Northeast Scotland, and more specifically the use of selected data sets from the database to aid in the proposed siting of an artificial reef. Using this example, this contribution explores the problems associated with the use of both existing analog and digital data sets as the basis for environmental applications, the problems of data acquisition, data quality, data standards, error and how these can affect the operational use of the data in GIS analyses. The solution to such problems appears to lie with improved error assessment and reporting. The outcome of this contribution is an attempt to offer guidance and solutions to researchers and applications specialists undertaking similar studies, by suggesting to what extent studies, such as the artificial reef siting, can safely make use of existing data sets without risking the problems associated with judgements based on inadequate information, and generated or inherent error.     

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Sustainability of Freshwater Crayfish Harvesting in Madagascar

Abstract:  There is growing interest among conservation decision makers in promoting harvesting of forest products as an incentive for communities to retain forest cover. Assessments of the sustainability of existing harvests are essential for implementing such policies. Madagascar's endemic freshwater crayfish, Astacoides spp., are harvested throughout their range. Despite their importance to human communities, Madagascar's crayfish, like much of the island's freshwater biodiversity, are poorly known, and there is concern that the harvest may be unsustainable. We investigated sustainability of the crayfish harvest in and around Ranomafana National Park in eastern Madagascar, focusing on the heavily harvested A. granulimanus. Several villages around the park have traditional taboos against selling crayfish, resulting in widely varying levels of crayfish exploitation. We used two approaches to assess sustainability of the harvest. First we used participatory mapping combined with a geographic information system analysis to produce a spatially accurate map of harvesting intensity. We then carried out mark-and-recapture sampling at 74 sites across a range of harvest intensities to test whether the level of harvesting was a significant predictor of crayfish density and structure. Second, we used size-structured matrix population models to estimate the forest area necessary to provide the observed annual harvest from one harvesting village and compared this estimate with the area available to the harvesters. Our findings show that the crayfish harvest in Ranomafana may be sustainable under current socioeconomic conditions, suggesting that A. granulimanus is less vulnerable to overexploitation than previously thought. We emphasize the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to assessing sustainability involving both ecological information about the harvested species and socioeconomic data about the level and spatial pattern of the harvest.     

应用陆地卫星TM图象编制闽北土壤图(1:10万)的方法研究

以TM原图象合成的标准假彩色和似自然色图象作目视解译为主,根据土壤及其相关地物的野外光谱测定数据,分析其影象色调特征;用TM 7个波段原始黑白图象作对比解译,以预测不同地物的彩色合或效果并选择最佳合成方案;用TM6热红外图象作假彩色等密度分割处理,以提取随海而异的地面温度场和土壤类型垂直分带信息;用TM比值图象及其假彩色合成处理,以逐步增强并提取土壤信息;最后参照同比例尺地质图和地形图等相关资料,完成土壤图的编制。     

Spatial and temporal distribution of illegal dumping sites in the nature protected area: the Ojców National Park,Poland

The existence of illegal dumping continues to be a worldwide problem, even in nature protected areas, and its distribution is not random. An understanding of the distribution of illegal dumping sites is crucial for the enhancement of effective waste management systems. Therefore, this study aims at a better understanding of spatial and temporal changes to illegal dumping sites in a nature protected area (the Ojców National Park) from 1994 to 2016. The most important spatial factors that control the distribution of illegal dumping sites were the distance from roads and from the field-forest edge. In the last two decades, the number of small dumping sites has increased, whereas the number of large illegal dumping sites has decreased. Moreover, this study presents a model of the potential occurrence of illegal dumping sites, which indicates places that should be under the control of the national park and of local authorities.