Bayesian areal wombling via adjacency modeling

Recently, public health professionals and other geostatistical researchers have shown increasing interest in boundary analysis, the detection or testing of zones or boundaries that reveal sharp changes in the values of spatially oriented variables. For areal data (i.e., data which consist only of sums or averages over geopolitical regions), Lu and Carlin (Geogr Anal 37: 265–285, 2005) suggested a fully model-based framework for areal wombling using Bayesian hierarchical models with posterior summaries computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and showed the approach to have advantages over existing non-stochastic alternatives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian areal boundary analysis methods that estimate the spatial neighborhood structure using the value of the process in each region and other variables that indicate how similar two regions are. Boundaries may then be determined by the posterior distribution of either this estimated neighborhood structure or the regional mean response differences themselves. Our methods do require several assumptions (including an appropriate prior distribution, a normal spatial random effect distribution, and a Bernoulli distribution for a set of spatial weights), but also deliver more in terms of full posterior inference for the boundary segments (e.g., direct probability statements regarding the probability that a particular border segment is part of the boundary). We illustrate three different remedies for the computing difficulties encountered in implementing our method. We use simulation to compare among existing purely algorithmic approaches, the Lu and Carlin (2005) method, and our new adjacency modeling methods. We also illustrate more practical modeling issues (e.g., covariate selection) in the context of a breast cancer late detection data set collected at the county level in the state of Minnesota.     

Risk-Based Viable Population Monitoring

Abstract:  We describe risk-based viable population monitoring, in which the monitoring indicator is a yearly prediction of the probability that, within a given timeframe, the population abundance will decline below a prespecified level. Common abundance-based monitoring strategies usually have low power to detect declines in threatened and endangered species and are largely reactive to declines. Comparisons of the population's estimated risk of decline over time will help determine status in a more defensible manner than current monitoring methods. Monitoring risk is a more proactive approach; critical changes in the population's status are more likely to be demonstrated before a devastating decline than with abundance-based monitoring methods. In this framework, recovery is defined not as a single evaluation of long-term viability but as maintaining low risk of decline for the next several generations. Effects of errors in risk prediction techniques are mitigated through shorter prediction intervals, setting threshold abundances near current abundance, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates. Viable population monitoring also intrinsically adjusts monitoring effort relative to the population's true status and exhibits considerable robustness to model misspecification. We present simulations showing that risk predictions made with a simple exponential growth model can be effective monitoring indicators for population dynamics ranging from random walk to density dependence with stable, decreasing, or increasing equilibrium. In analyses of time-series data for five species, risk-based monitoring warned of future declines and demonstrated secure status more effectively than statistical tests for trend.     

炼油厂污泥脱水系统技术改进

阐述炼油厂污水处理场污泥的组成、性质及污泥脱水的实际情况，在原工艺处理流程的基础上采取增加污泥储存罐、污泥调理系统、污泥输送系统等设施，并进行一系列的技术改造，使得污泥脱水系统能够正常平稳运行，减少污泥对环境的污染．取得了一定的经济效益和社会效益。     

铅锌冶炼企业循环经济建设中的物质流分析方法研究

针对循环经济建设模式下有色金属行业企业循环经济建设的物质流分析的特点,对铅锌冶炼企业物质流动情况,从分析方法的内容与步骤两方面进行了详尽的研究,得到了适用于铅锌冶炼企业循环经济建设的物质流分析方法,即采用生命周期评价方法对铅锌冶炼主流程各工序的物质流进行分析,用化合物物质流分析方法进行铅锌伴生元素回收过程的输入输出分析.     

流动注射催化光度分析法的研究进展

综述了近年来流动注射催化光度分析法的研究进展，包括环境水样中金属离子、阴离子、有机物等污染物的测定，展望了流动注射催化光度分析法未来的研究方向和发展前景。     

强化A2/O工艺反硝化除磷性能的运行控制策略

以啤酒废水为研究对象,重点考察了如何强化A2/O工艺反硝化除磷性能,从而提高营养物去除效果、并实现节能的目的.试验中建立了3种运行控制策略:(1)根据缺氧区末端出水硝酸盐的浓度控制内循环回流量;(2)调节厌氧/缺氧/好氧区体积比以减少厌氧区出水剩余COD对缺氧磷吸收的影响;(3)向缺氧区引入旁流并调节旁流比.试验结果表明,当缺氧区末端出水硝酸盐浓度控制在1～3 mg·L-1时,不仅可强化反硝化除磷效果,而且可以节省内循环所需能耗;厌氧/缺氧/好氧区最佳体积比为1/1/2;旁流的引入可以提高低C/N比条件下TN的去除,最优旁流比为0.32.     

云南省德钦县泥石流特征及成因分析

德钦县由于其特殊的地质环境,泥石流活动频繁,严重影响了当地人民的生命、财产安全和经济发展。本文主要论述了德钦县泥石流的特征以及从地貌、地质构造、气候、水文、植被、不合理的人类工程活动等方面阐述了泥石流的成因,以便人们了解泥石流的形成机理,从而达到防灾减灾的目的。     

浦东开发区河网水动力学模型研究

文章应用的 Preismann 隐式差分格式,具有计算精度高,稳定性条件限制少,可为后续的河网水质模型提供完整的水力参数等特点。用这一隐式差分格式对圣维南方程组进行数值离散,采用双扫除法(追赶法)可推导出不同边界条件下的各种追赶方程。模型的计算结果与实测值的拟合程度较高。最后,通过计算结果分析了浦东开发区河网流场的基本特点,指出了该地区水环境容量较小的水动力学方面的原因,提出了改善水环境容量的方法。     

中国环境中氮循环的动态模式

对中国960万km~2范围内氮的生物地球化学循环作了初步探讨。该工作建立在对大气、土、生物及水圈界面氮的流通量的研究基础上,以数学方式模拟氮的生物地球化学循环规律,并预测各圈中氮的库存量和流通量的变化趋势。经过验证,模式的收敛性、稳定性及可信度均是好的。     

Cardiac blood flow studies in fetuses with haemoglobin bart's disease

Blood flow across the atrioventricular valves and outflow tracts was measured in 55 normal fetuses and 32 fetuses with haemoglobin (Hb) Bart's disease between 18 and 26 weeks of gestation. The mean velocities remained unchanged in both normal and affected fetuses over the gestations studied. The volume flow across both atrioventricular valves and outflow tracts increased as the gestation advanced in both normal and affected fetuses, but was significantly higher in affected than in normal fetuses. The same magnitude of increased flow was found in both hydropic and non-hydropic fetuses with Hb Bart's disease. These findings suggest that fetuses with severe and long-standing anaemia have a remarkable cardiac compensatory mechanism for the maintenance of tissue oxygenation. In response to anaemia and circulatory loading, the cardiac chambers and outflow tracts enlarge proportionately up to twice the normal values. Because of this response and the operation of the Frank-Starling mechanism, the heart is able to maintain a normal mean velocity of propulsion and the net output is increased to two to three times that in normal fetuses. Hydropic changes in these anaemic fetuses appear unrelated to cardiac failure as cardiac failure is not observed at the time that hydropic changes develop.