Changes in peak flow with decreased forestry practices: analysis using watershed runoff data

The prevalence of forestry practices such as thinning and pruning have gradually decreased since the 1980s. Researchers have noted an increased flood risk with decreased forestry practices for coniferous plantations in Japan on the basis of infiltration and overland flow measurements at a plot scale (typically several square meters). However, no studies have examined changes in peak flow with decreased forestry practices at a watershed scale (typically several tens or hundreds of square kilometers) even though flood disasters generally occur at this scale in Japan. We examined changes in frequency distributions of daily precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) during the period 1979-2007 at the Terauchi watershed, where forestry practices are known to have decreased. For this purpose, we divided P and Q data into 14 and 15 classes according to the magnitude, respectively, and examined changes in the frequency for each class during the period. We observed no significant increasing trend for any P or Q class. Even when taking into account the effect of interannual variations in precipitation on the frequency for each Q class, there was no significant increasing trend in the frequencies except for two Q classes with moderate Q values. These results suggest that the increase in flood risk due to decreased forestry practices might be less than expected.     

高速公路交通事故严重程度与交通流特征的关系研究

为研究交通事故发生前后交通流特征对事故严重程度的影响,以JT高速公路作为研究对象,长期观测和采集交通流及事故数据。将交通事故发生时段的交通流主要衡量指标与事故信息进行数据匹配,形成交通事故与事故小时交通流匹配数据集,并分析流量、速度、大车比例等交通流表征指标与不同等级事故数的分布规律。通过分析发现:在某些流量、速度或大车比例区段,交通事故数及其严重程度处于较高的水平。在此基础上,利用主成分分析(PCA)技术对衡量交通流特征的初始指标进行降维处理,用交通流主成分指标综合反映交通流特征,并建立事故严重程度与交通流主成分指标的统计分析模型。结果表明:交通流主成分指标趋于零的区段的事故严重程度明显高于其他区段。     

A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions1

Snelder, Ton, Doug Booker, and Nicolas Lamouroux, 2011. A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):828‐840. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00556.x Abstract: Hydrological rules of thumb are used across jurisdictional regions to set minimum flows and allocation limits that apply by default (i.e., when more detailed site‐scale studies have not been carried out). Uniform rules do not account for spatial variation in environmental characteristics, resulting in inconsistent consequences for the protection of ecosystems, and the reliability of water resources. We developed a method for assessing hydrological rules of thumb that describes their consequences for protection of the ecosystem (in terms of retention of physical habitat) and the reliability of the water resource. The method links regionalized flow duration curves, at‐station hydraulic geometry, and generalized physical habitat models to make assessments at many locations across a region. The method estimates, for a given set of rules, the retained physical habitat for specified taxa/life stages and the proportion of the time abstractions are restricted. We applied the method to assess a set of rules that are proposed as default minimum flows and allocation limits for New Zealand rivers. The assessment showed that the minimum flow rules had variable consequences. The method could be used to quantify the tradeoff between environmental protection and water resources availability and reliability.     

连续流动分光光度法测定空气和废气中的氰化氢

利用荷兰SKALAR公司的间隔流动分析仪,用连续流动注射分析技术,对空气和废气中的氰化氢进行实验研究.优化了实验条件,方法操作简便,氰化物的工作曲线线性关系良好,大大提高了检测效率,缩短了检测时间,同时具有精密度较好的特点.     

利用冲击力信号判断泥石流颗粒垂向分选的试验研究

分别提出根据冲击力数据的波动强度和峰值情况进行泥石流颗粒垂向分选研究的系统方法,并配置了三组不同容重(2 095 kg/m3、2 008 kg/m3和1 960 kg/m3)的粘性泥石流样品开展泥石流冲击试验。两种方法的分析结果基本一致,即容重为2 095 kg/m3的泥石流分选不明显,其他两组泥石流呈现出正粒序分布且容重越小分选越显著。量纲分析表明,开展的试验粘滞力在运动中起主导作用,颗粒之间作用力较小,不容易发生反粒序分选,这与通过冲击力分析颗粒垂向分选的结果一致,因此提出的利用冲击力信号判断泥石流颗粒垂向分选的系统方法具有适用性。     

农村社区自然灾害应急演练方法的初步研究——以四川省广元市马口村自然灾害应急演练为例

通过对2009年11月12日在四川省广元市三堆镇马口村举行的自然灾害应急演练进行初步的分析研究,总结出了从前期准备、正式实施到演练评估的农村社区自然灾害应急演练基本流程和方法。在马口村自然灾害应急演练的前期准备阶段,根据当地实际情况选择了滑坡、泥石流为演练的自然灾害背景,制定了3级响应演练模式,并细化了各级响应的启动标准。在演练的正式实施阶段,采用了参与式的演练方案设计方法,充分调动了当地群众的积极性。演练结束后在现场发放调查问卷,对演练进行了多方面、多角度的评估,演练基本达到了预定目标。     

新化县水车镇泥石流灾害研究

以湖南省新化县水车镇泥石流为研究案例,根据初勘、详勘资料,分析了该泥石流的形成条件,定量计算了相应的运动参数,预测了它的发展趋势,最后指出,生物工程〔植树造林〕防治措施在花岗岩残坡积层泥石流场地的适宜性尚有待商榷。     

山区铁路沿线泥石流泥位自动监测预警系统

泥位预警是泥石流灾害预警的方法之一,目前主要有接触式和非接触式泥石流泥位报警两种方法。探讨了一种便于安装、适合山区铁路沿线泥石流监测预警的接触式泥位自动监测预警系统的构建及应用方法。首先探讨了泥石流泥位监测系统的工作原理及其软件、硬件的组成,其次探讨了泥位预警阈值确定方法,最后根据现场试验观测情况及所遇到的问题提出了泥位监测系统的应用方法。该泥石流泥位监测预警系统能实现泥山区铁路沿线石流泥位信息数据采集和传输的网络化、实时化、自动化、数字化(可视化),并根据监测信息及时向铁路相关部门发出预警信号。     

A grassland ecosystem model of the Xilingol steppe, Inner Mongolia, China

The natural grassland ecosystem of the Xilingol steppe has traditionally been the source of the most productive and highest quality agriculture in northern China. Unfortunately, the area is now experiencing degradation due to resource overuse. In an attempt to forecast grassland production and to sustain the ecosystem, we built a time-dependent simulation model of the ecosystem based on long-range weather forecasts (several weeks to several months). The model incorporated five state variables including above- and belowground biomass, the amount of standing dead plant material, livestock (sheep) weight, and the amount of excrement per unit ground area. Within the model, solar light energy is fixed by grassland vegetation and flows through the other variables via a variety of organism-environment interactions. The model was written using a set of simultaneous differential equations and was numerically analyzed. The values of the time-dependent parameters controlling energy flow were determined based on data accumulated in experiments and field surveys executed at a grassland experimental station located in Xilingol, as well as by reference to related literature. We used daily meteorological data including air temperature and rainfall recorded at the Xilinhot Meteorological Observatory. Simulated results for several stocking densities coincided well with the data of aboveground plant biomass observed at the experimental station in 1990, 1993, and 1997. We obtained reasonable simulation results for five stocking densities, three air temperature patterns, and five rainfall patterns. When a month-long drought, which sometimes occurs in this area, was forecast by a local weather station, a decrease in grassland production was forecast by the model. Such forecasts will assist in the management of livestock, forage preservation, and grassland conservation.     

Assessing the carrying capacity of tilapia in an intertidal mangrove-based polyculture system of Pearl River Delta, China

A trophic model of an intertidal mangrove-based polyculture system in Pearl River Delta, China, was constructed using the Ecopath with Ecosim software. This polyculture system was chosen since it is the first integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) system that was constructed on the basis of mangrove planting in China. The energy flows, ecosystem property, and carrying capacity of tilapia in the polyculture system were analyzed and evaluated. The results show the trophic level of 1.00 for primary producers and detritus to 2.85 for grass carp. The geometric mean of the trophic transfer efficiencies was 7.0%, with 7.2% from detritus and 6.8% from primary producers within the system. The ecosystem property indices show that this polyculture system has a high value of total primary production/total respiration (TPP/TR) and total primary production/total biomass (TPP/TB), together with low Finn's cycled index (FCI), Finn's mean path length (FML), and connectance index (CI), indicating that this system is at a development stage according to Odum's theory. The principal fish cultured in the system is tilapia, and mixed trophic impacts (MTI) show that tilapia has a marked impact on most compartments in this system, and the carrying capacity was found to be a tilapia culture biomass of 5.8 t ha⁻¹ in the system.