基于24Model的矿工怠工行为 管理模式架构及策略研究

为减少矿工怠工行为,基于24Model研究矿工怠工行为的管理模式架构及策略。首先,基于冰山模型理论分析矿工怠工行为的影响因素;其次,基于24Model和行为修正理论提出集怠工行为识别、行为原因分析、行为管理策略选择和行为修正评估于一体的矿工怠工行为管理模式架构;最后,提出了针对性的管理策略。对于提高煤矿企业矿工的工作绩效具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

An interdisciplinary review of current and future approaches to improving human–predator relations

In a world of shrinking habitats and increasing competition for natural resources, potentially dangerous predators bring the challenges of coexisting with wildlife sharply into focus. Through interdisciplinary collaboration among authors trained in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, we reviewed current approaches to mitigating adverse human–predator encounters and devised a vision for future approaches to understanding and mitigating such encounters. Limitations to current approaches to mitigation include too much focus on negative impacts; oversimplified equating of levels of damage with levels of conflict; and unsuccessful technical fixes resulting from failure to engage locals, address hidden costs, or understand cultural (nonscientific) explanations of the causality of attacks. An emerging interdisciplinary literature suggests that to better frame and successfully mitigate negative human–predator relations conservation professionals need to consider dispensing with conflict as the dominant framework for thinking about human–predator encounters; work out what conflicts are really about (they may be human–human conflicts); unravel the historical contexts of particular conflicts; and explore different cultural ways of thinking about animals. The idea of cosmopolitan natures may help conservation professionals think more clearly about human–predator relations in both local and global context. These new perspectives for future research practice include a recommendation for focused interdisciplinary research and the use of new approaches, including human‐animal geography, multispecies ethnography, and approaches from the environmental humanities notably environmental history. Managers should think carefully about how they engage with local cultural beliefs about wildlife, work with all parties to agree on what constitutes good evidence, develop processes and methods to mitigate conflicts, and decide how to monitor and evaluate these. Demand for immediate solutions that benefit both conservation and development favors dispute resolution and technical fixes, which obscures important underlying drivers of conflicts. If these drivers are not considered, well‐intentioned efforts focused on human–wildlife conflicts will fail.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Combined Municipal Solid Waste and biomass system optimization for district energy applications

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal has been a controversial issue in many countries over the past years, due to disagreement among the various stakeholders on the waste management policies and technologies to be adopted. One of the ways of treating/disposing MSW is energy recovery, as waste is considered to contain a considerable amount of bio-waste and therefore can lead to renewable energy production. The overall efficiency can be very high in the cases of co-generation or tri-generation. In this paper a model is presented, aiming to support decision makers in issues relating to Municipal Solid Waste energy recovery. The idea of using more fuel sources, including MSW and agricultural residue biomass that may exist in a rural area, is explored. The model aims at optimizing the system specifications, such as the capacity of the base-load Waste-to-Energy facility, the capacity of the peak-load biomass boiler and the location of the facility. Furthermore, it defines the quantity of each potential fuel source that should be used annually, in order to maximize the financial yield of the investment. The results of an energy tri-generation case study application at a rural area of Greece, using mixed MSW and biomass, indicate positive financial yield of investment. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the effect of the most important parameters of the model on the optimum solution, pinpointing the parameters of interest rate, investment cost and heating oil price, as those requiring the attention of the decision makers. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is enhanced by a stochastic analysis to determine the effect of the volatility of parameters on the robustness of the model and the solution obtained.     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas     

Biogeographical and Taxonomic Biases in Tropical Forest Fragmentation Research

Despite several decades of research on the effects of fragmentation and habitat change on biodiversity, there remain strong biases in the geographical regions and taxonomic species studied. The knowledge gaps resulting from these biases are of particular concern if the forests most threatened with modification are also those for which the effects of such change are most poorly understood. To quantify the nature and magnitude of such biases, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature on forest fragmentation in the tropics for the period 1980–2012. Studies included focused on any type of response of single species, communities, or assemblages of any taxonomic group to tropical forest fragmentation and on fragmentation‐related changes to forests. Of the 853 studies we found in the SCOPUS database, 64% were conducted in the Neotropics, 13% in Asia, 10% in the Afrotropics, and 5% in Australasia. Thus, although the Afrotropics is subject to the highest rates of deforestation globally, it was the most disproportionately poorly studied biome. Significant taxonomic biases were identified. Of the taxonomic groups considered, herpetofauna was the least studied in the tropics, particularly in Africa. Research examining patterns of species distribution was by far the most common type (72%), and work focused on ecological processes (28%) was rare in all biomes, but particularly in the Afrotropics and for fauna. We suggest research efforts be directed toward less‐studied biogeographic regions, particularly where the threat of forest fragmentation continues to be high. Increased research investment in the Afrotropics will be important to build knowledge of threats and inform responses in a region where almost no efforts to restore its fragmented landscapes have yet begun and forest protection is arguably most tenuous. Sesgos Biogeográficos y Taxonómicos en la Investigación de la Fragmentación de Bosques Tropicales     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes